Arkansas welcomes another top-10 team to Fayetteville on Saturday night, as the LSU Tigers come to town.
This is a massive opportunity. The Tennessee win ensured that the program has taken a big step forward from the ugly 2023 season and that the Sam Pittman era will continue, but this game has a chance to mean something more. The Hogs can break into the top-25 and maybe even push for eight wins this year with a win on Saturday. The opportunity to reverse a two-year downslide and recapture some of the 2021 momentum is here.
It won’t be easy. LSU hasn’t been overly impressive this year, but they have a very good team and are coming off a huge win over Ole Miss.
Over at Best of Arkansas Sports, I’ve got an in-depth preview of the matchup keys, focusing on the two key LSU defenders that Arkansas must account for. Be sure to check it out!
Meet the Tigers
LSU opened the season with a neutral-site loss to USC that has continued to look worse as the Trojans have stumbled to a 3-3 start. Since then, the Tigers have opened 2-0 in SEC play and have also beaten hapless UCLA.
The Tigers have a surprisingly-easy SEC schedule: five of their eight conference opponents are unranked right now. After this game, LSU faces Texas A&M and Alabama in consecutive weeks before closing with an unranked trio of Florida, Vanderbilt, and Oklahoma.
If LSU is looking ahead to the Aggies and Tide, this could be a bit of a trap game for them. It’s hard to believe they’d overlook a 4-2 team on the road, but the Hogs are the only unranked opponent they face this month. The Hogs would probably love if a surprise cold front blew through Fayetteville, as the Tigers typically don’t play well in the cold.
When LSU has the ball
LSU is very different from the three SEC teams the Hogs have faced. The Tigers are extremely pass-heavy and have thrown for 300 yards in every game except South Carolina, where they threw for 285.
The Tiger offense crafts long drives (12th in Plays per Drive) by avoiding negative plays (12th in Havoc Rate), staying on schedule (31st in Leverage Rate) and winning third down (19th in Marginal Third Down %). They create and finish scoring opportunities at good rates.
They have two weaknesses. First, they tend to merely keep their head above water on early downs and don’t create a ton of explosives (87th in Standard Downs EPA+/Play), which explains why they require such long drives in order to score. Second, they do turn it over a bit (80th in Turnover Rate). Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has thrown six interceptions and lost a fumble this year. He has a tendency to make dumb decisions when pressured:
Pressuring him, however, has been an issue.
Nussmeier has been sacked only twice all year and is pressured at one of the lowest rates in the SEC. LSU’s offensive line is very good at protecting him and giving him time. With time to throw, he can generally pick defenses apart.
Arkansas is a little bit vulnerable to being picked apart. They don’t give up a lot of deep shots and they typically get steady pressure on the quarterback (especially against Tennessee), but the Hog secondary hasn’t been completely shutting opponents down.
Some good news is that Nussmeier is very much not a run threat. He’s only scrambled three times all year and will avoid it if at all possible, so the Hogs shouldn’t need a spy on him.
With LSU, you have to watch the receivers. Kyren Lacy is the home run threat on the outside, and Aaron Anderson is the shifty slot receiver who generates yards after the catch. They’ve had injuries and used multiple guys at the other outside receiver spot, but they will also throw to their tight ends and backs out of the backfield. You’ll see a decent amount of Empty sets and they’ll motion the running back out and make him a receiver sometimes.
LSU’s run game hasn’t been very productive and the Tigers will allow themselves to be made one-dimensional at times. They’ve rotated several running backs (their original starter tore his ACL in the opener) but finally settled on freshman Caden Durham, who has been boom or bust. He didn’t get much against UCLA and Ole Miss, so the Hogs should be able to stop him. Durham is arguably more dangerous as a receiver, where he caught a 71-yard touchdown pass against South Alabama.
The real key on this side of the ball will be how Arkansas’ secondary holds up against a veteran quarterback. The Hogs have faced young or struggling quarterbacks for the last few weeks, but Nussmeier is neither. The last veteran quarterback Arkansas faced was Alan Bowman, who started slow but threw for more than 300 yards as the Cowboys came from behind to beat the Hogs. Of course, Marquise Robinson, who has become Arkansas’ highest-graded cornerback according to Pro Football Focus, didn’t play in that game. Maybe he can make an impact.
When Arkansas has the ball
After an absolute buzzsaw of Texas A&M and Tennessee on defense, the Razorback offense finally gets a relative break. LSU’s defense isn’t terrible, but it’s far from elite.
The Tigers do force turnovers (37th) and negative plays (35th) and can successfully limit the damage from good offensive drives (27th in Points per Scoring Opportunity), but they don’t knock offenses off schedule (104th in Leverage Rate, 86th in Success Rate), aren’t strong on third down (87th), and allow way too many drives to get into their territory (96th in Scoring Opportunity Rate).
LSU has the softest run defense the Hogs have seen in a while. This unit is basically on par with Auburn, but not in the same universe as the Aggies and Vols, who sit among the nation’s elite against the run. The Hogs also get back Andreas Paaske, their run-blocking tight end, for the first time in SEC play. I do expect the Hogs to be able to be balanced on offense. Can they run wild, as in 200 yards? I’m not sure, but I think it’s possible. South Carolina rolled up 243 rushing yards (143 from Rocket Sanders) on this defense.
Through the air, it’s going to come down to Arkansas’ ability to block the Tigers’ elite pass rushers, led by end Bradyn Swinson, who leads the SEC with 23 pressures this year. If the Hogs can protect, the LSU secondary is ripe for exploitation. If they can’t, it’s not going to matter.
If this game ends up high-scoring, then I’m interested to see if Arkansas can keep up in a shootout. I worry that the Hogs waste too many good drives to win a high-scoring game where every drive matters, which is why Arkansas’ only chance is for its defense to have a monster game. But you can’t rely on that every game, especially against a strong passing attack like LSU’s. Maybe they’ve turned a corner and are capable of winning a shootout, but either way, this might be the week we find out.
Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow us on Twitter and on Facebook.
The latest from Fayette Villains, straight to your inbox
Enter your email to subscribe and receive new post alerts and other updates. You can unsubscribe at any time.