It’s late, and it’s probably not wanted, but it’s here. We have advanced stats from Arkansas’ ugly loss to LSU.
I’ve seen a small number of fans who have decided that this was the game that caused them to end their support for Sam Pittman and say he should be fired. That seems… odd. If your expectation was that Arkansas sweep a two-game homestand against top-10 teams, then Razorback fandom may not be for you. The Hogs needed to win one of Tennessee and LSU and they did.
Now, that doesn’t change the fact that this was a dud of a performance, especially coming off a bye week. LSU looked stronger at almost every position. This might be some bad timing, as LSU’s defense, which got off to a rough start to the year, appears to be peaking. They played well against Ole Miss and looked even better on Saturday. Tiger linebacker Whit Weeks was a monster. He was everywhere against the run for a bit, and then his interception that set up first-and-goal basically ended the game.
A rant on officiating
Given the above, Hog fans can’t rightly claim that they would have won if the game had been fairly officiated, but my goodness. Every subjective call in this game went against them, including a few that really should not have.
The first major turning point in the game came late in the first half. The Hogs had gotten off to a bad start and were down 16-7, but the game had been chippy, physical, and fairly evenly-matched to that point. They drove to midfield trying to cut the lead to one score before halftime (and it would be Arkansas ball to start the second half).
The two-play sequence that followed changed everything. An incomplete pass over the middle to Tyrone Broden was broken up by LSU safety Sage Ryan, who left his feet to drill Broden while he was making the catch. The play was initially called targeted but was overturned after review. On the very next play, an LSU defender fell into the legs of receiver Jordan Anthony, causing him to not make a catch on a deep throw from Taylen Green. Pass interference was not called.
The Hogs ended up punting and trailed by two scores at halftime, but had either call gone Arkansas’ way, the Hogs likely get at least a field goal. Though Arkansas did eventually cut the lead to 16-10 before the second big turning point (the interception), that play marked the end of the evenly-matched physicality. The Hogs had to overwork for their third quarter field goal and the chippiness completely vanished.
The big ask of officials is to not impact the flow of the game. Some calls can be missed – referees are human, after all – but fans rightly get mad when a missed call plays a role in shifting momentum in a game. In extreme cases, a missed call can literally change a winner (see: 2020 Arkansas-Auburn), but most of the time, officials impacting the flow of the game looks like what we saw Saturday. LSU probably (or almost certainly) still wins this game, but at least they do it without giving us something to argue about.
I can see the case for why the targeting call should have been waived off, although I vehemently disagree. The argument is that Ryan did not actually make “forcible contact” into Broden’s head, and he didn’t use his own head to make the hit. (The actual rule adds “or neck area”, which is ambiguous, and I think you could make the case that where Ryan hit Broden was in fact in his “neck area”.)
I will try to make the case here that Bud’s position in the above post is nonsensical. If you don’t think that meets the definition of targeting, then you don’t believe “targeting” should be a call at all: maybe unnecessary roughness for particularly extreme hits, but no specific enforcement of a rule called “targeting”.
My view is that the provided explanation is bad because it defeats the entire purpose of targeting as a player safety rule. With a non-safety rule like holding, we judge the outcome, not the intention: if a player tries to hold but fails, it’s not holding. But targeting is supposed to be intention-based. How many times have we heard it explained that we need to “get [certain types of tackles] out of the game”? That type of tackle would be exactly what Ryan did: arms at his sides, he left his feet and launched upper-body first into a defenseless receiver who was not looking at him. Had Broden lowered his head just six inches as part of his effort to make the catch – and Ryan had no way of knowing exactly where Broden’s head would be when he made contact – he could have knocked himself or Broden out cold. As bad as the hit looked when Ryan merely launched his shoulder into Broden’s neck area (we’ll call it “upper chest”), it would have looked much worse if contact had been made into Broden’s head. And again, that Broden’s head wasn’t hit is pure luck, not skill on Ryan’s part.
This is, of course, why the current targeting rule enforcement is terrible. What was clearly designed as an intention-based rule is being enforced as an outcome-based one. The LSU defender made a textbook targeting hit that was dangerous enough to injure a player as it was, but got lucky that the hit didn’t land in the specific type of dangerous area that we care about, and so he doesn’t get a flag at all, even though everything that was under his control was exactly the kind of thing we (supposedly) want to “get out of the game”. So he’ll continue to make hits like that, and next time, he may not get lucky, and his life or some poor receiver’s life might change forever. Nice rule you’ve got there, NCAA.
The pass interference no-call on the very next play needs no explanation. I have yet to see anyone even try to defend it. The defender fell down on his own and prevented Anthony from making the catch. You could say he “interfered” with him. There’s a penalty for that, and it should have been called.
So what should fans do when officiating changes the game like we saw Saturday? Well, the same thing happened in Austin, where Texas, trailing Georgia 23-8 in the second half, had a huge interception wiped off the board by an atrocious pass interference call. Texas fans responded by trashing the field, causing a delay in the game.
Watch the play itself and then the reaction from the fans:
Some may disagree, but I think this was an excellent move by Texas fans. That’s an unacceptable call, especially in a game between top-5 teams, and fans let the officials know it. What happened next was magical: even though the call is technically not reviewable, during the delay, the officials gathered (and almost certainly watched the replay on the videoboard) and reversed the call. Trashing the field worked.
Commentators and fans alike quickly became very concerned with the “process” that was used to reverse the call. A quick social media search of the term “bad precedent” yields an avalanche of results like this:
I disagree. The precedent here is excellent. Officials had to observe a furious crowd and it made them reconsider. When the saw the replay, they realized they had screwed up and affected the game in an unacceptable way, so they reversed the call. That’s what you want them to do. As I said in the beginning, the big ask of officials is not impact the flow of the game. That bad call was an impact, so they did away with it and let the action on the field decide what happened.
If you’re an Arkansas fan who watched the 2020 Auburn game, you probably agree with this. In that game, officials blew the whistle on a live-ball fumble, thereby affecting the game in an unacceptable way. As they huddled for a review, they had two options. First, they could stick to their precious “process” and try to determine in a vacuum whether Joe Foucha fell on the fumble in the “immediate continuing action”. (He didn’t; Auburn fans were right about this.) The other option was to make the only call that would right the wrong of the inappropriate whistle and allow what actually happened on the field to decide the game instead of the “process”. Guess which one they chose?
Had that game been in Fayetteville, it would have been completely acceptable to pelt the field with trash until the officials change their mind or the game has to be called off and finished in front of no fans at a later time. I don’t care about what’s reviewable or “indisputable video evidence” or any stupid processes. Just get the call right. No matter how.
I think it’s helpful to the cause to blast the original missed call over and over and over again, so the “process” and “bad precedent” people know exactly what they are defending. As the SEC office continues its hissy fit over the trash stunt, Texas should be responding to every new press release and announcement by showing video of the play that was called pass interference. They can win the debate pretty easily by forcing people to admit that they think that should have stood as pass interference, when it pretty obviously wasn’t.
Advanced stats
Again, there’s no way to blame the officials for the loss, only to point out that they did a bad job and affected the game. Arkansas had only a 15% post-game win expectancy, their lowest in a game all year.
The Hogs averaged a decent 5.5 yards per play and had only one three-and-out… but a combination of turnovers, a few ill-timed negative plays, and some officiating headass meant that they only ran 50 offensive plays.
As usual, the Hogs were terrible in the scoring zone. Four drives got a first down inside the LSU 40, and they ended with a touchdown, a made field goal, a missed field goal, and a punt after a third-down sack. That’s just not acceptable, and it is happening every single game at this point.
LSU’s offense wasn’t overwhelming, but the Tigers sustained drives by succeeding on third down and avoiding turnovers and negative plays.
A lost fumble destroyed those rushing EPA numbers for the Hogs. Once again, they were bad on early downs (-0.11 EPA per Play on standard downs) and thus fell behind the chains quickly (just 58% leverage, so 42% of plays came on passing downs).
Yuck, what a mess. LSU’s run defense wasn’t good early in the year, but it’s much better now. Ole Miss had issues running on the Tigers as well. The Hogs did generate a respectable 2.69 line-yards per rush, but the run game didn’t fit into the overall offensive success, as only 25% of runs were successful (that is, increased Arkansas’ expected points).
The uncertain status of Ja’Quinden Jackson is concerning, because he’s the only back consistently generating yards after contact. He was a non-factor as he tweaked his ankle on his very first carry. Mississippi State and Louisiana Tech are the only remaining opponents that will allow a big cushion in the run game. If the Hogs are going to run on Ole Miss, Texas, or Missouri, they’re going to need to break some tackles and run through contact.
If there’s any good news at all, it’s that Taylen Green is really growing up as a passer. These numbers aren’t bad considering the constant pressure he was under. He was efficient and even hit a few big throws. It’s the third straight game he’s posted respectable passing numbers.
The pressure he’s under obviously has been an issue, but there’s good news. Next week’s opponent is dead-last in the entire FBS in sacks and has been getting almost no pressure on the quarterback at all. Green will finally have a chance to feast in a clean pocket.
Up Next
Arkansas heads to Starkville to take on 1-6 Mississippi State. It’s a must-win for the Razorbacks.
I’ve previewed the matchup keys for Best of Arkansas Sports. Be sure to check it out, as some of the numbers on State are shocking. This is the offense’s chance to break out. If Bobby Petrino was the right hire, the offense will carry the Hogs on Saturday.
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