For the third time this year, the Hogs had a chance to build on an SEC win and establish themselves as better than “just making a bowl”. For the third time this year, they lost. For the second straight time, it was a total blowout. A blowout that raises a lot of questions.

Can’t get fooled again

Winning three SEC games before November could have ended all speculation about Sam Pittman’s job security. The Hogs need only beat hapless Louisiana Tech to secure a bowl, which keeps Pittman’s record since 2021 above .500 and makes it more expensive to fire him. Plus, the hire of Bobby Petrino as offensive coordinator has been a success, as the offensive is massively improved in almost every topline statistic and there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic about the future on that side of the ball.

While going 6-6 wouldn’t have fans celebrating, it would probably be enough to keep fans interested as long as nothing embarrassing happened. All Pittman needed to avoid was getting absolutely stomped on his home field.

Unfortunately, he’s now seen that happen in two straight games in Fayetteville. So we’re back talking job security again, because getting destroyed at home is a great way to find yourself on the hot seat.

This game wasn’t a must-win. Arkansas could have lost 34-24 and it would have been fine. You don’t want to consistently accept home losses to Ole Miss (the Hogs hadn’t lost to the Rebels in Fayetteville since 2008), but it’s literally true that you can’t win them all. Ole Miss isn’t a better program long-term than Arkansas, but they certainly have a better team this year. They have a three-year starter at quarterback, and their NIL situation has been ahead of Arkansas (and much of the rest of the SEC), allowing them to go on a shopping spree for defensive players last offseason.

But Ole Miss isn’t 63-31 better than Arkansas. Kentucky, South Carolina, LSU, and Oklahoma found a way to keep the Rebel offense under 30 points for the game; Arkansas couldn’t even do that in the first half.

Earlier in the week, ESPN’s Pete Thamel noted that speculation on Pittman’s job security had “quieted” in the coaching industry:

Arkansas has one game left on the schedule in which it’s heavily favored, a home game against Louisiana Tech. That means a return next year is close to guaranteed for Pittman, who needs only one win in the last four games for his team to be bowl eligible.

Pittman was adamant this summer that the program was in a much better place than when he took it over. That has played out this season.

It’s still likely, but I’m not so sure it’s close to guaranteed anymore. An SEC head coach cannot get beat like that at home and still have good job security. And it’s happened twice in a row!

Entering the season, I thought 6-6 would be questionable and 7-5 was necessary for Pittman to guarantee his job, though it would depend on other factors, including how Petrino’s offense performed. Nine games in, and I’m still there. I sort of think that 6-6 isn’t going to cut it. I think Hunter Yurachek is going to hear it from boosters and season-ticket holders if the Hogs lose to both Texas and Missouri, especially if neither game is close.

Ultimately, Pittman has won games when he absolutely has to, but he’s lost every opportunity at a breakout since the 2021 season. The program is where it is under his leadership. It’s unlikely the Hogs can be much better. It’s crazy to me that a coach whose first couple of years were defined by playing hard every single game is now defined by having two or three random no-shows per year. I can’t explain it.

A plan of succession

There’s not a can’t-miss coaching candidate out there this offseason, so if the Hogs said goodbye to Pittman, they’d either have to pull a Calipari-like surprise or roll the dice on an up-and-comer or coordinator. Given the schedule and the positive direction of the offense, the Hogs look like a 7-5 or better team next year if they keep this staff and don’t lose any key players to the portal. Is another coach going to come in and be immediately better? I doubt it.

On the other hand, the single biggest reason for optimism isn’t Pittman, it’s Petrino. He’s done great work with his quarterbacks this year and if he can just get a mediocre offensive line, the offense will be in great shape. Do you retain the head coach because you like the offensive coordinator? Probably not, especially when it might be possible to replace Pittman while holding onto Petrino, as someone like Barry Odom might do. That arrangement would be best for all parties, as Pittman and Odom are friends, so it would look more like a “retire and pass the torch” and less like a “you’re fired and we’re hiring this guy”.

Regarding T-Will

Meanwhile, Travis Williams has seen a fall from grace. His defense just gave up 694 yards and was utterly inept.

To understand this defense, let’s break down Arkansas’ opponents into three groups:

• Group 1: offenses with accurate, experienced quarterbacks who are not afraid to throw the ball
• Group 2: offenses with decent quarterbacks or at least a willingness to throw
• Group 3: offenses that have to run the ball, either because of the scheme or because the quarterback isn’t good

I’d put Ole Miss and LSU in that first group. In the second group, I’d put Oklahoma State, UAB, second-half Auburn (with Payton Thorne), and Mississippi State. In the third group, I’d put first-half Auburn (with Hank Brown), Texas A&M, and Tennessee.

Quick math here. To the first group, Arkansas allowed 97 points (48.5 per game). Those two quarterbacks were 48 of 65 for 748 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions. That’s 74% completion, 11.5 yards per attempt, and 374.0 yards per game. I don’t even know how to describe that. That’s just utter hopelessness.

To the second group, Arkansas allowed 97 points (27.7 per game, regulation only). Those quarterbacks were 85 of 133 for 1,083 yards with eight touchdowns and five interceptions. That’s 64% completion, 8.1 yards per attempt, and 309.4 yards per game. That’s not very good, at all. The Hogs took away the run for much of those games, especially against Oklahoma State and Auburn, but allowing 300 yards per game and more than eight yards per attempt isn’t good, especially since none of those quarterbacks are anywhere near elite.

Then we come to the third group. To those, Arkansas allowed 35 points (14.0 per game). Those quarterbacks were 35 of 64 for 393 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. That’s 55% completion, 6.1 yards per attempt, and 157.2 yards per game. All of the goodwill that Arkansas’ defensive staff has earned came in these two and a half games. All of these teams were run-heavy (their starting running backs rank 1-2-3 in the conference in rushing yards this year), and the Hogs managed to take that away and dare these quarterbacks to beat them. They couldn’t. (Yes, Texas A&M literally won the game, but the Aggies had fewer than 300 yards and scored 21 points, with seven coming on a drive that started first-and-goal.)

I think that three-game stretch of playing Auburn, Texas A&M, and Tennessee caused everyone to overrate this Razorback secondary. It just isn’t very good. If the Hogs can’t get pressure with a four-man rush, they’re going to get picked apart by even a mediocre quarterback.

Arkansas has had four years to upgrade from Hudson Clark at cornerback, and somehow, they have not been able to do it. So this keeps happening:

Coooooked him pic.twitter.com/NG0ntHpDYX

— Tim Heilman (@Timothy_Heilman) November 2, 2024

Everyone got burned:

• Jaheim Singletary: 4 targets, 4 catches, 59 yards
• Doneiko Slaughter: 5 targets, 4 catches, 55 yards
• Marquise Robinson: 4 targets, 3 catches, 99 yards, 2 TD
• TJ Metcalf: 3 targets, 2 catches, 70 yards, TD
• Hudson Clark: 2 targets, 2 catches, 79 yards, TD
• Jayden Johnson: 2 targets, 2 catches, 79 yards, TD

Arkansas tried their Dime defense early, but Ole Miss was more than prepared. The Rebels used the quarterback run game and play action to take advantage of Arkansas keeping safeties away from the line of scrimmage. They punished the Hogs in the flats and targeted the linebackers in coverage.

The Hogs then went back to their 4-2-5 with 2-high safeties, so Ole Miss attacked the middle of the field with tight end Dae’Quan Wright (9 targets, 9 catches, 99 yards, 2 TD). All of Arkansas’ linebackers – Xavian Sorey, Stephen Dix, Brad Spence, and Anthony Switzer – were charged with at least one catch allowed to Wright.

The Razorbacks then tried a 1-high safety look with man-to-man looks on the outside. That’s where Ole Miss started throwing deep fades up the sideline. Clark, Johnson, and Robinson all allowed at least one reception of at least 60 yards to Jordan Watkins, and Cayden Lee had a 58-yard catch against Metcalf. The Razorbacks were utterly hopeless.

Once the game was mostly out of hand, the Hogs returned to the Dime and basically just begged Lane Kiffin to be merciful. He was not. Ole Miss continued to run its early game anti-Dime offense until the final whistle, scoring two more touchdowns late without really letting up. Ole Miss didn’t stop throwing bombs because of sportsmanship; they stopped throwing bombs because the Hogs out out of their Cover 1 defense.

I don’t want to be too friendly to Williams and co-DC Marcus Woodson, because they’ve had two offseasons to upgrade the secondary, but the Hog secondary did get really thin in Odom’s final season as DC (and the same thing happened to Odom as head coach at Mizzou), so Williams and Woodson did inherit a mess. They made a few good portal moves: Robinson has mostly been solid this year, and Slaughter has been okay at nickel. But the talent just isn’t there. That’s a bigger issue than scheme.

The ability of this defense to stop the run is impressive, and it’s enough to keep the Hogs competitive in games against offenses that lack powerful passing attacks. But there are too many SEC teams capable of throwing the ball, and that puts a hard ceiling on the Hogs’ prospects.

And there’s more bad news: I’d put Texas in Group 1 and Mizzou in Group 2 above. Both have experienced, accurate quarterbacks. And both (Texas especially) are more than willing to sling the ball if you take away the run. The Razorback defense might be in trouble in both of those games.

What’s Lane’s deal?

Lane Kiffin left Jaxson Dart in the game well into the fourth quarter and was still taking shots late. As mentioned above, the Rebels never stopped trying to score even after Dart went out.

Since they did eventually take Dart out, and the Arkansas offense was obviously still trying to score, then maybe you could excuse that. Plus Ole Miss has playoff hopes, so maybe they wanted style points? (For the record, I don’t buy that: if Ole Miss beats Georgia next week and wins out, they’re in the playoff. If they lose to Georgia, they’re out, because they’d be 9-3 with zero wins over ranked teams. Every other game can be by 1 point or by 50 points and it won’t matter.)

But early in the fourth quarter, I think Kiffin made it clear he was sending a message to the Razorbacks.

On 4th-and-17, up 56-24 with 14 minutes left in the game, the Rebels ran the punt unit on, then quickly ran it off and sent the offense back on, trying to catch the Razorbacks with too many men on the field. The Razorback defense, which had returned to their sideline huddles, had to quickly scramble to run back on the field. The Hogs got 11 men out there, so Ole Miss took a delay of game and punted.

I don’t think Ole Miss actually intended to run an offensive play there, but there’s only one explanation for Kiffin doing that. He was trying to send a message. But why?

I’m not aware of any bad blood between Pittman and Kiffin. Maybe it relates to the Hogs’ attempt to poach basketball coach Chris Beard last offseason? But that’s pretty far-fetched. Ole Miss athletic director Keith Carter is obviously an Arkansas native, but I don’t know why that would drive Kiffin to want to humiliate Pittman.

I do think that sorts of underlines the utter uselessness of having a nice guy coach. We all hear about how Sam Pittman is such a nice guy and so well-liked in the industry, but that doesn’t stop Eli Drinkwitz from mocking him, and it doesn’t stop Lane Kiffin from acting like he’s going to fake a punt up 32 in the fourth quarter just to make Pittman look bad.

The opposite of virtue-signaling is vice-signaling, so we don’t want to lean into being jackasses for no reason, but it’s fair to note that a lot national folks who defend Pittman as a nice guy are really defending him as an unthreatening nice guy. That’s where the comparison to Mike Anderson becomes apt. Being a nice guy is worth zero points and should not be used in argument for keeping a coach who is not getting the job done. Every single fanbase in the country would rather win with a jerk than lose with a nice guy, and it doesn’t make you a bad person for wanting that as a fan, especially in the highly-commercialized world of modern college sports.

Advanced stats

I guess we can start with the good news. The Hogs allowed only eight havoc plays, which isn’t bad against a defense that’s among the nation’s best at forcing them. And the Hogs finished drives well. Five of six scoring chances ended in points, including four touchdowns.

Of course, all three three-and-outs, one of the turnovers, and the failed scoring chance came before the game got out of hand, so a large chunk of the yards and scoring chances came after Ole Miss already had a huge lead.

On the other side: woof. In the end, 11 of 12 Ole Miss drives led to scores or chances to score. The chart says eight, but that’s because it’s not counting the three touchdowns of 60+ yards. Ole Miss had one punt (mentioned above), and one goalline stand. They did not have a three-and-out or a turnover, and they gained 82% of possible yards.

Arkansas’ offensive numbers here look fine. They were especially effective on the ground (both Taylen Green and Malachi Singleton had multiple good runs, and the Hogs rushed for three touchdowns). They were decent on early downs, which is nice progress building on a good early-downs performance against Mississippi State.

Ole Miss couldn’t run the ball at all, but they were perfect otherwise. The Hogs allowed only a small number of explosive plays (13%), but those ended up being huge. The Rebels had four passes of 50-plus yards.

The Ole Miss run game went nowhere. The Rebels had just one explosive run (10+ yards), and it was a scramble by Dart. Per usual, the Hogs didn’t blow many runs up, but they contained the run really well.

The Hogs ran well. More than a quarter of runs gained 10+ yards and the Hogs finished with 235 non-sack rush yards. Sacks dragged the numbers down if you look at the official box score, but sacks should not count towards rushing numbers in my opinion.

Outside of a few sacks, the Hogs were strong through the air… but their numbers are dwarfed by what Ole Miss was able to do. Dart had all day to throw, even when the Hogs brought pressure, and the secondary, as mentioned before, was helpless.

The two remaining passing attacks in SEC play aren’t quite this good, but they aren’t bad at all. The Hogs are going to have to figure something out or they aren’t going to have a shot in either game.

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