Arkansas has its next big test on Thanksgiving Day against Illinois in Kansas City.

How big of a game is this? Well, Arkansas’ loss to Baylor is looking a bit shaky after the Bears were routed by both Gonzaga and Tennessee (they have beaten St. John’s), so this isn’t a game the Hogs want to lose. With the Hogs’ frontcourt still a bit banged up, it’s hard to call this a must-win, but the urgency goes up for the Miami and Michigan games if the Hogs can’t take care of business Thursday. The SEC is an absolute beast this year, so the Hogs really need a good non-conference resume.

Meet the Illini

Illinois is coached by Brad Underwood, who came from Oklahoma State after making a name for himself at Stephen F. Austin, where he engineered a regular Cinderella team in March. Underwood and the Illini lost to the Razorbacks in the 2023 Round of 64, but last year they broke through to the Elite Eight. They’ve had serious roster turnover and entered this year with lower expectations. So far, though, they’ve looked good, losing only to Alabama.

Advanced stats

The big caveat with advanced stats this early is that we don’t have a large sample size. Many of these numbers will change drastically by season’s end. But there’s enough to get an idea of how good each team has been this year.

Unlike football, where our tables show rankings out of 134 FBS teams for each stat, these tables used normalized values (0-100). So a value of 100 means the team is probably top-5 nationally in that stat. A value of 50 means they are about 180th. And so forth and so on. The cutoff to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large is going to be about 60th out of 364 teams for overall team efficiency, which equates to an 85. Any stat where the Hogs are lower than about 80 is a relative weakness, while 90-plus indicates a relative strength.

So these teams are relatively evenly-matched, and both will lean on their defense in big games. The model pick is Illinois 70, Arkansas 65. If you want actual rankings for Adjusted Scoring Margin (the ultimate measure of how good a team actually is, regardless of its win-loss record), Illinois is 9th and Arkansas is 17th in the nation.

The Four Factors track four key stats that fully summarize how good a team is. Arkansas’ only weakness is rebounding; the Hogs do fine on the defensive boards, but they have not been getting many offensive rebounds so far. Illinois’ lone weakness is turnovers. The Illini protect the ball on offense but don’t force many turnovers on defense.

When Arkansas has the rock

Each side of the ball has two tables: one for possession-level data, and one for play-level data.

At a possession level, the only thing Arkansas’ offense does really well is go fast. The Hogs get in transition a ton and usually have short possessions. That’s good news against an Illinois defense that is far from elite in transition. They don’t force particularly long possessions and allow too many transition opportunities.

If Arkansas cannot get in transition, then cracking Illinois’ halfcourt defense does not look fun. The Illini have been smothering teams that they can slow down.

The Illini don’t force many turnovers, but they do everything else well. In particular, they will force offenses to take low-percentage midrange jumpers by keeping you away from the rim. You can think Big Z’s brother Tomislav for part of that ferocious defense around the rim.

Arkansas has made a living scoring around the rim this year, but they shoot well at all three levels. Their shot selection has not been very efficient, as you can see in the bottom part of the table.

When Illinois has the rock

The Hogs are very good at defending in halfcourt as well. But they do sacrifice a little bit of dominance there (compared to Illinois) in order to also be very good at defending in transition. The Hogs have had some lazy moments that have allowed some transition possessions, but overall, they defend well everywhere.

The big threat from Illinois is a 3-point barrage. The Illini attempt a lot of 3-pointers. They don’t hit them at a great rate, but because those shots are more efficient, they don’t really have to.

Teams that shoot a lot of 3s also miss a lot of shots, but Illinois benefits from being great on the offensive boards. Arkansas has been lackadaisical at times clearing the boards, but they’ll need to be sharper in this game.

Arkansas’ possible advantages include forcing turnovers, not fouling, and preventing good shots around the rim. That will force Illinois to hit a lot of tough shots. If those fall, then hats off to them, but if they don’t, the Hogs are in good shape.

Personnel

Illinois boasts a big three of Will Riley (17.2 ppg), Ben Humrichous (10.3 ppg), and Ivisic (15.5 ppg, 8.7 rpg). All five starters will take around half their field goal attempts from beyond the arc, so it’s a true 5-out offense with five shooting threats always present.

Riley, a 6’8 true freshman, is an efficient, high-volume scorer who never turns the ball over. He’s also the team’s best offensive rebounder. The matchup between him and Adou Thiero is going to be fascinating.

Humrichous, a 6’9 Evansville transfer, also never turns it over, although he’s slightly less efficient than Riley as a shooter. His main benefit is defense, where he leads the team in blocks per 40 and defends around the rim without fouling. He’s been called for just two personal fouls all season.

Ivisic, a 7’1, has similarities to his brother on defense. He scares teams from going into the paint (although he does not block many shots) and his long arms produce a lot of steals. Offensively, he’s not quite the 3-point threat that Zvonimir is, but he’s much more high-volume and draws a decent amount of contact around the rim.

The weaknesses are in the backcourt. Point guard Kasparas Jakucionis is fine overall. He shoots a solid 68% true shooting and gets to the line frequently. However, he is a bit turnover-prone (he had six in the loss to Alabama) and he grades as a mediocre defender.

The biggest weakness in the starting lineup is shooting guard Kylan Boswell. The Arizona transfer’s shot is just not falling. He’s at 23% from beyond the arc for the year and, despite getting to the line at a good rate, he’s at a dismal 45% true shooting this season. He’s also not a good defender.

The Illini don’t have a ton of backcourt depth, so they haven’t moved on from Boswell despite his issues. The next man up is 6’7 Louisville transfer Tre White, who is coming off his best game of the season with 16 points against Little Rock, but so far this year he’s been a better rebounder than scorer.

What to watch for

Offensively, Illinois runs the emerging modern college consensus offense by spacing the floor with five tall guys who can shoot 3-pointers. If multiple guys get hot, then this offense is hard to stop. But if you can get a hand in the face of shooters and the shots don’t fall, this offense can look really ugly because it will have a bunch of guys on the floor who can’t take their man 1-on-1 and create their own shot. Arkansas would love to force some tough twos created by those isolations.

Defensively, Illinois’ length scares teams away from the rim, forcing difficult jump shots that are rebounded by defenders at a good rate. Arkansas’ first step will be to avoid turnovers, as that’s Illinois’ weakness. Arkansas cannot fall in love with the midrange, so they’ll need to either hit some open 3-pointers or attack the rim. I’m a bit concerned that what we thought would be a major weakness for this team – 3-point shooting – has not been a weakness at all, and yet the halfcourt offense is still pedestrian. Some of the issues more severe than 3-point shooting right now are offensive rebounding, getting to the rim, and getting to the free throw line. All three of those might could be helped by a healthy Jonas Aidoo, but his status remains unknown.