Seven games into the season, the Razorbacks are already facing a must-win game. At 5-2 and outside of the AP top 25 for now, Arkansas heads to Miami for the SEC/ACC challenge. This is the third of four marquee non-conference games, with the final being against Michigan in Madison Square Garden.
Arkansas really needed to go 2-2 in these games to have a strong resume heading into March. We figured this team would improve as the season progresses (barring major injuries), but the committee punishes teams that flop in the non-conference, and anything less than 2-2 in these four big games would be a flop.
The good news is that Miami is quite a bit worse than Illinois. Our model actually says Illinois would beat Miami 96-72 on a neutral floor. Even though it’s on the road, Arkansas really needs to pull this one out.
Meet the Hurricanes
Miami is coached by Jim Larranaga, who is most famous for leading George Mason to the 2006 Final Four. He’s been at Miami since 2011, compiling a record of 273-166.
When Miami is good under Larranaga, they’re often really good, as four of his six NCAA Tournament teams have reached the second weekend, and the 2023 team went to the Final Four. But the floor has been low: Miami has missed the tournament altogether in four of their last six seasons, and they were a dismal 15-17 last year.
Miami started 3-0 in tune-up games before a disastrous trip to the Shriner’s Classic in Charleston ended with three losses against decent teams. To make things worse, they then lost their “get-right” game on Saturday against Charleston Southern. The Hurricanes were 24-point favorites in that game, making that the biggest outright upset in college basketball this season.
Larranaga’s Miami teams are fun to watch. They play very clean basketball on offense, typically shooting well and rarely turning the ball over. However, when they struggle, you can usually blame the defense, and that’s been the issue this year.
The Four Factors show that the Hogs might be in danger of losing the rebounding battle, but they should be able to counter that by winning turnovers. Each team may have the same number of shot chances, but the Hogs should get to the line much more often and should also get better shots.
Model pick: Arkansas 90, Miami 74. This game will be a good test of how Arkansas’ offense can perform in a shootout against a power-conference defense that struggles.
When Arkansas has the rock
Miami’s defensive numbers are bizarre. They will fight like heck to keep teams from getting in transition against them. They will avoid risking for steals and instead rotate back on defense, aiming to force long possessions that end in a missed shot. If you do get a fast-break opportunity, you’re almost guaranteed to score, since that means they missed a rotation.
If the Hogs can consistently run, as they’ve worked hard to do all year, they might score a hundred points. But even if Miami does successfully keep them out of transition, the Hogs should have the advantage against the Hurricanes in a mostly-halfcourt game.
Miami rebounds well, so if Arkansas goes ice-cold from the field, that’s a potential concern. But Hurricanes don’t force turnovers and don’t defend shots well. Arkansas has shot great percentages on relatively poor shot selection this year. Miami’s inability to defend jump shots is a big concern, as is their inability to keep opponents away from the rim.
I would expect the Hogs to punish Miami inside the arc. Open 3-pointers will be there, though Arkansas doesn’t want to settle for too many of those on the road. Miami’s general inability to pressure the ball is a problem against a John Calipari offense, so the Hogs should be able to get the shots they want.
When Miami has the rock
Miami will need a lot of offense to win. The Hurricanes are very good in halfcourt, but that’s playing right into Arkansas’ team strength. The Hogs’ only major defensive weakness is that they are occasionally lackadaisical in getting back, so they allow too many transition opportunities. Miami could punish them there, but speeding up the game comes with great risk, as it would expose the Hurricanes’ putrid transition defense on the other end.
Like Illinois, Miami is going to try to light it up from beyond the arc. Arkansas is allowing way too many open 3-point looks, so if the Hurricanes get hot, that’s their best chance to win this game. Miami takes good care of the basketball, but they don’t get to the line, get to the rim, or attack the offensive glass particularly well.
Personnel
Miami has a very deep bench and will sub often. The only guy that’s almost always out there is 6’8 senior Brandon Johnson, a transfer from East Carolina. Johnson is the closest thing they have to a good defender, mostly because he snags 13.0 defensive rebounds per 40 minutes. He’s a bit limited offensively, as he’s not a good passer and has a team-worst 17% turnover rate.
Larranaga’s teams typically have well-defined team roles. Unlike “positionless basketball” advocates, Miami’s guards play like guards and the forwards play like forwards. Larranaga likes small, quick guards who can initiate a transition offense, knock down 3-pointers, and swarm on defense. To counter that lack of size, he wants physical forwards who rebound well. When his teams struggle, it’s often because the smaller guards are unable to pressure the ball well, and that’s what’s happening this year.
The two main guards are ball-dominant, with the forwards mostly operating in supporting roles on offense.
The top scorer is Nijel Pack, the shifty 6-foot super senior who originally transferred from Kansas State. Pack averages 15 points per game, shooting a solid 64% true shooting, including 44% from beyond the arc. He also leads the team in assists per 40 (8.9) and has the lowest turnover rate (7%). He offers nothing as a defender or rebounder.
Joining him in the backcourt is 6’2 senior Jalen Blackmon, a Stetson transfer. Like Pack, Blackmon doesn’t really rebound or defend, but he doesn’t turn it over, dishes out assists, and shoots 39% from downtown.
Another guy to watch is 6’10 center Lynn Kidd, the only guy taller than 6’8 that Miami will use regularly. Kidd is dangerous. He’s shooting 71% from the floor (all around the rim) and he’s their best offensive rebounder. He doesn’t draw fouls or space the floor, and he’ll turn it over if he gets the ball too much.
The final usual starter is 6’7 wing Matthew Cleveland, who averages nearly nine points per game. He’s shooting 39% from beyond the arc and doesn’t turn it over. He’s a pretty good defensive rebounder but not a good defender overall.
Off the bench, it’s all guards. There’s 6’5 freshman Jalil Bethea, 6’4 junior AJ Stanton-McCray, and 6’4 freshman Austin Schwartz, who are top three guys in steals per 40 minutes, though for Stanton-McCray, it’s at the cost of fouling a lot. Schwartz gets to the line a lot but has just three rebounds in 81 minutes this year. Bethea looked solid in the three early wins but struggled in the four losses.
What to watch for
Offensively, Arkansas needs to get in transition when the chance arises. If forced into halfcourt, the Hogs need to be patient, as Miami’s soft defense will give them plenty of open looks inside the arc. Settling for a ton of midrange jumpers is not optimal, even though those will be open. Dumb turnovers or impatient shots early in the shot clock are the main ways things could go south offensively.
Defensively, the Hogs must focus on preventing Miami from getting in transition. They need to clear defensive rebounds and not foul. That will leave Miami dependent on hitting 3-point shots. The Hogs will need to close out better than they did against Illinois.
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