Fresh off a thrilling 76-73 win over Miami in the SEC-ACC Challenge, the Razorbacks have one tune-up game before a critical matchup with Michigan next week.
Meet the Roadrunners
UTSA is coached by Austin Claunch, who is in his first season. He spent five seasons as the head coach at Nicholls; during his first two, he was the youngest coach in Division I, at 28 years old when hired.
Claunch had an excellent run at Nicholls, going 90-61 and winning two regular season Southland Conference titles in five years. He resigned after the 2023 season to spend last year on Nate Oats’s staff at Alabama. Now he’s trying his hand running a program with slightly more resources than Nicholls.
The Roadrunners have already lost to two teams Arkansas has beaten: Troy and Little Rock. They’ve surrendered at least 80 points in every loss, so expect the Hogs to have little problem scoring. It might be a fun game to watch, as UTSA will want to push the pace, something that will likely play right into the Hogs’ hands.
The Roadrunners might be improving, as they just took 8-1 Saint Mary’s to overtime. That’s the same Saint Mary’s that beat Eric Musselman’s USC Trojans 71-36 a couple weeks ago.
UTSA is on the weaker side of Arkansas’ non-conference opponents, as Troy and Lipscomb would be clear favorites over them on a neutral floor, and they’re about even with Little Rock and Pacific.
The model pick is Arkansas 88, UTSA 60. I think the Roadrunners are playing better than the all-season numbers indicate, so I’d expect this to be a little closer than that.
A lot of UTSA’s numbers, as we’ll see, are basically “Miami, but worse”. The Roadrunners might win the offensive rebounding battle, but the Hogs will shoot much better.
When Arkansas has the rock
UTSA’s transition defense is pitiful, so the Hogs should be able to run just fine. Arkansas ended up being pretty efficient in halfcourt against Miami, something that’s very promising to see.
The Roadrunners will take a lot of gambles to try and force turnovers. That’s just about all they do well. That comes at the cost of fouling almost constantly, but it will be worth it if they can make the Razorback ballhandlers uncomfortable. This will be a good opportunity to see how Boogie Fland and DJ Wagner handle aggressive ball pressure.
UTSA has another concern that will likely haunt them: they have no rim protector, and their gambles leave them out of position to deny the ball inside. As you can see on the bottom left of the table, Arkansas’ shot selection this year has not been ideal. The Hogs are good midrange shooters, but midrange isn’t an efficient shot generally. As they get Jonas Aidoo healthy, they’ll work more to get the ball inside to him, as we saw for a bit against Miami. This would be a possible opportunity to get more shots right at the rim.
When UTSA has the rock
UTSA wants to force turnovers in order to create transition opportunities. Their transition game is really where they shine. If the Hogs aren’t focused on rotating back, the pace-pushing Roadrunners will beat them down the floor.
UTSA will launch 3-pointers and crash the offensive glass, but… this team cannot shoot. They are particularly awful at finishing around the rim, but their jump shots aren’t great either. Arkansas is allowing a lot of 3-point tries, so if UTSA gets some hot shooters, this game could get dicey, but that’s about their only chance.
Turnovers are probably a bigger concern, as the Roadrunner offense’s go-go-go strategy leads to a lot of turnovers. Arkansas’ defense has been very good at forcing them, and this game could get really ugly if UTSA can’t even bring the ball up the court.
Personnel
The Roadrunners are as close to a one-man show as Arkansas will see this year. They are led by journeyman point guard Primo Spears (23.7 ppg). The 6’3 senior has played for four teams in four years: Duquesne, Georgetown, Florida State, and now UTSA. Eric Musselman and the Razorbacks apparently pursued him after the 2023 season but signed El Ellis instead.
Spears barely leaves the floor: he averages 36.6 minutes per game. He’s attempting 19 field goals per game. His team usage – the percentage of all of a team’s possession-ending plays (shot opportunities or turnovers) made by one player – is 36%, the seventh-most of any player in the nation. Needless to say, the Hogs will need to keep an eye on him.
Is he that good? He’s not overly efficient. His 47% eFG% includes a 33% mark from beyond the arc. Both are on the low end of decent. He manages to lead the team in assists (5.5 per 100 possessions), which is crazy considering that he takes the lion’s share of his team’s shots. His big strength is that he really doesn’t turn it over much at all. His 3.1 turnovers per game may seem bad, but it’s nothing considering how many possessions he eats up: that’s just an 11% turnover rate.
Spears has to do everything for the Roadrunners because he’s not getting much help. His fellow guards are 5’11 Marcus Millender (12.3 ppg) and 6’6 Damari Monsanto (10.3 ppg). Millender presents a decent 3-point threat at 39% and dishes out assists at a good rate, but he’s hit just 14 of 37 shots inside the arc this year, aligning with the numbers we saw above about UTSA being awful at finishing around the rim. Monsanto is similar: an acceptable 34% from beyond the arc, but just 1 of 10 on shots inside the arc. Almost all of his attempts will be 3-pointers.
Unfortunately for the Roadrunners, you have to put tall guys on the floor too. And UTSA’s forwards are… messy. The center is 6’9 Buffalo transfer Jonnivius Smith. He’s there for defense and rebounding. He averages 20.4 rebounds per 100 possessions (which is insane) and blocks 4.7 shots per 100, also very good. But letting him touch the ball is an adventure. He’s managed to take 27 shots this year against 17 turnovers, a turnover rate of 40%. He’s also fouled out of two games this year. They have to keep him on the floor for his defense and rebounding, but he’s usually hurting them on offense when he’s out there. When Smith is out, 6’11 SMU transfer Mo Njie is in. He rarely shoots and lacks mobility, but he is a very good rebounder at both ends. These two guys are responsible for most of the offensive rebounding prowess of the Roadrunners.
They’ve used a couple different guys at the 4, but the leader is 6’6 James Madison transfer Raekwon Horton, who averages 9.5 points and 6.7 rebounds per game. He’s been pretty hit or miss this year. He scored 19 points and snagged nine rebounds on 6 of 7 shooting (and 7 of 7 free throws) against Houston Christian, but fouled out against Merrimack with six points on nine shots (and three turnovers), and then scored one point with four turnovers in a loss to Saint Mary’s.
What to watch for
Don’t be surprised if UTSA’s relentless energy makes the Hogs work hard. The Roadrunners are coming off their best game of the year and had won two straight before that.
Offensively, the Hogs need to avoid junk turnovers that have plagued them. They should also attack the weak UTSA interior defense to get to the rim instead of settling for longer jumpers. And being smart in transition can punish UTSA for trying to play fast against a more athletic opponent.
Defensively, the primary aim is containing Spears, who is an explosive bundle of energy. The Hogs need to show good effort in rotating back on defense to not give up fast break points, and they need to be solid on the defensive boards, especially against UTSA’s two centers, who like to park under the basket and wait for opportunities to crash the glass.