Fan interest in the 2024-25 Razorback men’s basketball team is waning, but we haven’t updated Arkansas’ all-season advanced stats and rankings in a while, so as the Hogs face what truly is a final stand against Georgia on Wednesday, here’s a look at the matchup.
As we’ve looked at recently, Arkansas has both scheme issues and execution issues. The outdated offensive scheme doesn’t space the floor well, which leads to too many contested midrange jump shots and makes it harder to snag offensive boards. But the offense should still be better. Hog ballhandlers are way too finesse, pulling up or passing out when facing resistance instead of driving to the hoop and drawing more contact. Eric Musselman’s teams had the same scheme issues we’re seeing this year with John Calipari, but at least Muss’s teams drew a ton of fouls and could make a living at the free throw line.
Defensively, there aren’t really any excuses, as Arkansas has the talent to be very good. They’ve been solid all year but both LSU and Missouri really made them look silly. They’ve allowed way too many semi-open 3-point looks this year, and there are too many good-shooting teams in the SEC to get away with that. And when Jonas Aidoo comes out of the game, the Hogs also give up too many good looks around the rim.
Meet the Bulldogs
Georgia has been a bottom-feeder it the SEC basketball world for a while. Despite close proximity to the Atlanta recruiting ground (and usual SEC Tournament location), fans in Athens care much more about football than basketball.
After Mike White wore out his welcome at Florida, he landed on his feet at Georgia. It was a good pickup for the Bulldogs, and White has slowly improved the program. He’s just 14-27 in SEC play over his two-plus years, but this is his best team by far and they’re in a good spot to be dancing in March.
Georgia already has wins over Georgia Tech, St. John’s, Notre Dame, and Kentucky, and their only losses have been to current top-25 teams.
Georgia’s strength of record is 30th, which puts them on the right side of the bubble in our model. Sitting at 81st, our model has the Hogs off the bubble entirely, although not terribly far off. Interestingly, there’s a big gap between Arkansas’ strength of record (81st) and their actual team quality (45th), suggesting that the Hogs have had some bad luck in the scheduling department. Playing multiple MEAC schools (plus dismal UCA) probably wasn’t a good decision, and a 1-4 record in close games is also hurting the bottom line.
Model pick: Arkansas 71, Georgia 70. No, the model has no idea that Boogie Fland is doubtful for this game. It doesn’t take injuries into consideration.
When Georgia has the rock
Each team’s defense will be at an advantage, so we could be in for a low-scoring game. Like Arkansas, Georgia’s offense isn’t great in halfcourt. The Bulldogs do a great job of getting to the rim in transition, but they don’t get in transition enough. The Hogs will have to stop the ball and prevent Georgia from running, something they have not done well this year.
As you can clearly see, Georgia wants to get to the rim. They are top-40 nationally in percentage of field goal attempts to be at the rim (35th), field goal percentage at the rim (40th), free throw attempt rate (28th), and offensive rebound rate (17th). They want to get inside to create chaos and contact. If they out-physical you, you’re in trouble.
Georgia’s biggest threat is 6’11 freshman center Asa Newell, who averages 15.3 points and 6.8 rebounds per game. He’s accompanied by a trio of 6’5 guards: Vanderbilt transfer Tyrin Lawrence, sophomore Silas Demary Jr., and Mount St. Mary’s transfer Dakota Leffew. Leffew is more of a jump shooter and is the main 3-point threat, while Demary and Lawrence are drive-and-draw-contact guards who shoot a lot of free throws, in the style of a Moody or a Ricky Council IV.
On the one hand, that’s not great news for an Arkansas team that looked shell-shocked against Missouri’s physicality. But that was a different kind of physicality than Georgia. The Hogs don’t foul too much (58th) and have been decent at defending around the rim (90th). Rebounding (179th) is the biggest concern here. Arkansas desperately needs the Jonas Aidoo they expected to show up, because interior defense is going to be the key to stopping the Bulldogs. I’m not sure that Big Z is going to be able to hang with Newell.
If the Hogs do manage to win the interior battle, Georgia is dead in the water. The Bulldogs are a horrific jump-shooting team, and they are the most turnover-prone in the SEC to boot.
When Arkansas has the rock
Unfortunately, the Razorback offense is going to have to do it the hard way. They have only been watchable when they can get in transition (17th in transition rate, 33rd in scoring percentage on transition percentage, 56th in overall rate of transition scoring). But the Bulldogs are built to stop transition scoring. If the Hogs can’t run, then their abysmal halfcourt offense is going to have to wrangle with Georgia’s good-but-not-elite halfcourt defense.
All the issues we’ve discussed with the Razorback offense are evident on the left side of this chart. The Hogs shot selection (bottom part) is very non-optimal, with way too many midrange and not enough 3-pointers or even attempts at the rim. Muss’s teams took too many midrange jumpers and not enough 3-pointers, but at least they got to the rim. This team has no rim pressure guy. Moses Moody, Jaylin Williams, and Anthony Black were all rim pressure guys. They had the passing, cutting, and/or driving skills to make the offense live around the rim. This team doesn’t have that. As talented as Fland is, he’s not that.
Because they don’t get to the rim, the Hogs don’t generate free throws (275th) or offensive rebounds (246th). Those were not issues anyone expected this team to have. The only issue everyone expected was 3-point shooting. After a strong non-conference, the Hogs predictably can’t shoot in SEC play (SEC defenders are longer, and the Hogs’ lack of spacing means opponents can close out on shooters), so they’ve fallen to 170th in 3-point percentage.
Georgia is elite at defending around the rim and defending 3-point shooters. Newell and former Calipari commit Somto Cyril combine to block three shots a game and influence several others. That’s a problem for a Razorback offense whose only strength is finishing at the rim. Georgia’s only real weakness is rebounding, and the Bulldogs are truly terrible in that department. Again, the Hogs desperately need Aidoo here, as getting second and third chances is probably their only shot.
What to watch for
With Fland likely out, the Hogs have no choice but to give 30-plus minutes to Nelly Davis, as bad as he’s looked at times. It’s probably wishful thinking at this point, but maybe letting him run point and play off the dribble will help him get into a rhythm, as the plan the staff had to for him to play off the ball and mostly shoot 3-pointers has been a catastrophe. That’s not what he did at Florida Atlantic.
But whether or not Davis plays well, Arkansas isn’t going to win if Aidoo no-shows. The Hogs have to keep Georgia out of the lane, off the glass, and off the free throw line, and that starts with Aidoo defending Newell like an all-SEC defender, although DJ Wagner, Adou Thiero, Karter Knox, and Billy Richmond defending Georgia’s driving guards will also be key.
So to summarize, the very thing that has been the biggest disappointment – the non-Kentucky transfers, Aidoo and Davis – are the key to the Hogs winning their first SEC game. If they show out, it could be the first step towards the Hogs turning their season around.
Arkansas-Georgia tips off on Wednesday at 8 pm at Bud Walton Arena. The game will be televised on the SEC Network.