John Calipari has his first SEC win as head coach of the Arkansas Razorbacks. It took longer than anyone expected, but the Hogs rallied from 15-point second-half deficit to knock off Georgia 68-65.

In their first game without Boogie Fland, who is out for a while and possibly the rest of the season, the Hogs changed up their offense a bit, and the gambit worked, especially after halftime.

You may see only 68 points and think the offense didn’t do much, but consider that this was a slow-paced game, featuring just 64 possessions. The Razorbacks scored on 53% of their halfcourt possessions. They’ve done better than that in only two games this year: the MEAC combo of Maryland-Eastern Shore and North Carolina A&T. So suffice to say, this game was progress for the offense.

The numbers tell the full story, so let’s dive in.

Advanced stats

Arkansas’ offensive efficiency was a decent 106, including an excellent 140 in the second half. And for the first time all season against a power-conference foe, the Hogs were efficient on offense without doing much in transition. The Razorbacks scored just 13 points on 13 transition possessions. They won this game by scoring 55 points on 51 halfcourt possessions (108 efficiency, 53% scoring rate). As mentioned above, that’s their best mark of the season against a power-conference foe.

I’ve highlighted three stats that are closely related. To analyze them, let’s start with the criticism of Arkansas’ offense this year.

You can read more in this piece where I discussed Calipari’s mistake in moving away from last year’s well-spaced Kentucky offense and going back to his 2010s Wildcat offense that were built around ball screens and isolation, with limited attempts to space the floor. While that can help develop NBA guards, it’s not really in line with what NBA teams actually do on offense nowadays. I noted the difference here (emphasis added):

But NBA teams shoot 3-pointers. And a lot of them! They design plays specifically to get a guy open for a 3-point look (and not just when they’re down 3 in the final seconds). They have guys who are actively looking to shoot from beyond the arc when they come into the game. NBA teams figured out years ago that shooting a lot of 3-pointers stretches the defense and creates open paths to the rim. As we saw in Musselman’s last couple years, not attempting many 3-pointers signals to the defense that you’re always looking to go inside, so defenders can cheat inside the arc and collapse on any ball movement.

And this point, from the Georgia preview:

The outdated offensive scheme doesn’t space the floor well, which leads to too many contested midrange jump shots and makes it harder to snag offensive boards.

Arkansas won this game because they rebounded almost half their missed shots and got to the free throw line 34 times. But they’ve been horrible this year at doing both of those things. What was different this time? Part of it was the matchup: Georgia entered this game as the worst defensive rebounding team in the SEC, ranking 302nd in defensive rebound rate. But the Bulldogs ranked 40th in rate of free throws allowed, so matchups alone doesn’t explain this.

Allow me to humbly submit my analysis: Arkansas going 3 of 23 from beyond the arc won this game. Not because they only made three of them, but because they didn’t stop shooting. They had much better spacing and continually threatened the Bulldog defense with open 3-point looks.

Spacing the floor and threatening opponents with 3-pointers – even if you can’t hit the broad side of a barn – allows you to do this:

That play perfectly encapsulates what went right for Arkansas in this game. Johnell Davis misses a 3-pointer (he was 1 for 10), but Asa Newell has to go find Trevon Brazile to box him out, leaving a path for Karter Knox to get the offensive rebound, the stickback, and the foul.

That’s how the three highlighted stats above are related. Willing 3-point shooters space the floor and allow paths to the rim for your athletes. This is how Arkansas is going to have to win for the rest of the year. It’s probably not going to work every game, but it’s all the Hogs have right now.

Check out Knox at plus-14! This was probably his best game as a Hog. And DJ Wagner still struggles to score, but he had only one turnover despite handling the ball most of the game. And Davis at plus-5 is expected given the analysis above. The Hogs had him running the baseline and looking to score on the wing and in the corner. The shots will fall eventually (maybe), but the X’s and O’s of it worked even though they didn’t this time.

Highlights

Up next

Arkansas has a very winnable game against Oklahoma on Saturday at Bud Walton Arena. The Sooners are doing their annual “look invincible in non-conference, fall apart in conference” thing, but they’re still in the field according to Joe Lunardi.