Arkansas’ NCAA Tournament fate is set. The Hogs are headed to Providence to face 7-seed Kansas in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The winner advances to face the winner of St. John’s and Omaha.

Coaching connections abound. Three coaches in this pod are Hall of Famers: John Calipari, Bill Self, and Rick Pitino. The fourth – Omaha coach Chris Crutchfield – is a former Arkansas assistant under Eric Musselman.

Arkansas beat Kansas in an exhibition way back in November, but that obviously didn’t count. Kansas played that game without star Hunter Dickinson, while Arkansas was without Jonas Aidoo and Johnell Davis, who were battling injuries at the time. Expect a very different ballgame this time around.

This lengthy post will recap Arkansas’ position and season and then focus on previewing the Jayhawks, another team that failed to meet its preseason expectations and enters this tournament with a much worse seed than it was hoping for back in November.

Hogs earn a 10-seed

Arkansas is a 10-seed in the West Regional. Compared to the offseason hype, this is a disappointment. Given the way this season was going in mid-January, this is impressive. It’s probably true that this wasn’t John Calipari’s best work in terms of offseason roster construction, but this has been impressive work in terms of in-season coaching. He lost the leading scorer of the first half of the year (Boogie Fland, 15.1 points per game), and has since lost the leading scorer of the second half (Adou Thiero, 15.6 points per game). Freshmen Karter Knox and Billy Richmond made massive strides over the course of the season, and Trevon Brazile and Jonas Aidoo improved as well.

Fland is going to try to return, though it will be interesting to see how much he’s able to contribute. The Hogs desperately need more guard depth, so just a few possessions a game to spell DJ Wagner would be beneficial. It would be quite the story if he’s able to seriously impact a Hog victory.

Providence connection

Arkansas’ run starts in Providence, Rhode Island. The last time the Hogs reached the Sweet 16 as a double-digit seed was in 1996, when they were a 12-seed who came out of… Providence. Interestingly, that run ended in the Sweet 16 with a loss to UMass, coached by… John Calipari. UMass’s own season ended with a loss in the Final Four to… Rick Pitino, who is also in Providence, as the coach of 2-seed St. John’s.

Grading the Hogs

Our model grades every game that every team plays. The grade is based on a team’s net, offensive, and defensive efficiencies compared to the average allowed by that team. So if a team’s adjusted net efficiency is +4.8 – meaning that team is 4.8 points per 100 possessions better than the average Division I opponent – and Arkansas finishes at +6.0 against them for the game, then the Hogs get the extra plus-1.2 as a score for that game. All scores by all teams in all games are then normalized on a 0-100 scale, which returns your “grade”.

The cutoff for an NCAA Tournament at-large team is between 63 and 66. Your team performances need to consistently be in that range if you want to play well enough to make the tournament.

Here’s how Arkansas graded over the year:

You can see an uneven start to the year – five sub-60 grades in the first eight games – followed by stabilization as a bubble team at the end of non-conference. After a season-worst 48 in the Tennessee loss to open SEC play, the Hogs looked like they were recovering… and then Boogie Fland got hurt. That created a brief setback before the breakout against Kentucky, an SEC-best 73 grade. The Hogs eventually put together seven good performances in eight games to move from off the bubble to into the field before Adou Thiero got hurt. With just seven scholarship players, the end of the year featured some wild inconsistency and a concerning defensive swoon, but the Hogs had done enough to make the field.

Personnel

With Thiero still out for the weekend, there’s concern that the defensive swoon could continue. Trevon Brazile, who has taken basically all of Thiero’s minutes, is the team’s worst defender by a large margin.

Here are some advanced stats for the Arkansas roster:

Explanation: The blue stat is regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM), which is a ridge regression run over all possessions that a player is on the floor. If you are technically-inclined, feel free to read up on this stat. The basic thing to know is that it does not look at any box score stats, but cares only about team performance while that player is in the game, taking into account his four teammates and the five opposing players (which makes it an opponent-adjusted stat). The orange stat is box plus-minus (BPM), which uses box score stats to approximate RAPM. RAPM is the better stat, but a single college season doesn’t provide enough data to rely on it alone, so we need box score data. If you’re been reading my blog for a while, you’ll know that I’ve used a combined box-RAPM stat called xRAPM for a while. As part of the data transition, I decided to shelve that for now until I can come up with a better way to create the box score prior (the output was really close to raw BPM and not close to raw RAPM at all, suggesting a biased prior).

So RAPM says that Johnell Davis is Arkansas’ most valuable player overall and most valuable offensive player by a large margin.

Do you agree? You probably don’t. But that’s what the numbers say. We risk rekindling my 2023 controversial claim that Jordan Walsh’s team-best offensive RAPM meant he was Arkansas’ most valuable offensive player. I wrote a very lengthy defense of that argument citing all sorts of on-off stats, and I think the way the rest of the season played out after that post proved my argument correct. I continue to stand by RAPM as incredibly predictive and valuable.

Just to be clear on terminology, from that post:

We chose our words very carefully here. You may have a best friend, and an investor may have a most valuable asset, but the difference is that the investor’s asset is objectively quantifiable. Nowhere did we claim that Walsh is Arkansas’ best offensive player, because he is rather obviously not. Ricky Council IV is probably Arkansas’ most productive offensive player, but I don’t see anyone claiming he’s the best over Anthony Black.

Arkansas’ most productive offensive player is probably Thiero, who conveniently leads the team in offensive BPM. Fland (+4.5), Jonas Aidoo (+4.1), and Brazile (+3.6) are also productive. But those four guys have all sat on the bench for long stretches while Arkansas’ offense has worked just fine, and the reality is that the Razorback offense has not done much when Nelly Davis isn’t out there.

The biggest surprise of the group has to be Karter Knox, who is actually second in RAPM. He’s been so good that he actually represents a modest upgrade over Fland… which may explain why Arkansas has actually been a better team since Fland went down. Knox’s +13.2 D-RAPM is evident when watching him play: he’s a tenacious defender who has helped improve the Razorback defense.

Note that most of Fland’s value was defensive, not offensive. If he’s able to play significant minutes this weekend, the Hogs do not benefit at all if Fland just takes minutes from Knox, as he was doing pre-injury. The lineup that maximizes RAPM actually has Fland replacing DJ Wagner, who has been a jack of all trades, but isn’t as good a defender as Fland or Knox and isn’t as valuable offensively as Davis.

Meet the Jayhawks

Kansas isn’t really the kind of team you want to see in the first round. During the NCAA Tournament, teams tend to suddenly regress back to their preseason expectations, and Kansas was ranked number-one in the preseason.

After a national title in 2022 and then a 1-seed in 2023 (wrecked by the Hogs), the Jayhawk rebuild went sideways. They added Michigan transfer Hunter Dickinson as a dominant piece, but failed to add enough shooters around him. The 2024 Jayhawks earned a 4-seed and lost in the Round of 32.

Dickinson returned this year, and coach Bill Self added a monster transfer portal class that included several extremely productive scorers. Kansas ended the season as a consensus top-5 team with considerable hype.

They seemed to be on their way to justifying the hype initially, beating Duke, Michigan State, and North Carolina in early non-conference games. But back-to-back losses to Creighton and Mizzou in December were the start of a rough stretch. They opened 5-2 in Big 12 play against the weaker part of the conference, but they enter Thursday just 7-8 in their last 15 games. And since a big win over Iowa State on February 3rd, their only wins are against 14-20 Colorado (twice), 15-17 Oklahoma State, 17-16 UCF (in overtime), and Arizona.

Our models still love Kansas, as those big November wins are doing a lot of heavy lifting.

As mentioned above, it’s actually pretty common for teams to return to early-season form when they reach the NCAA Tournament. UConn did it two years ago: they were KenPom’s number-one team all through December before having some hiccups in Big East play. Then they won every NCAA Tournament game by double-digits in route to a national title. Or take John Calipari’s Kentucky team in 2014 that had a rough year, earned an 8-seed, and promptly beat 35-0 Wichita State in the second round.

Kansas might certainly look like a 1-seed on Thursday, but there’s reason to be skeptical. First, a lot of basketball analysts had serious concerns about Kansas’ ability to shoot the ball before the season even started. Shooting was the Jayhawks’ downfall in 2024, and despite an elite portal class, several of their top signees did not have established track records of being good shooters.

Concerns over shooting led basketball personality Trilly Donovan to make the bold claim back in November that Kansas would be “unranked at least once this season”.

His other claims were wrong and mostly not close, but he was far from the only one to be concerned about Kansas’ ability to shoot. The Jayhawks might get hot for a game or two, but they are probably not suddenly going to fix their biggest Achilles’ heel.

When Kansas has the rock

An iffy halfcourt offense and a roster full of athletic players means Kansas unsurprisingly wants to play fast. Arkansas must avoid giving up cheap baskets and make the Jayhawks work for everything on offense.

Without good spacing due to a lack of shooting threats, Kansas doesn’t take a lot of 3-pointers and doesn’t draw fouls at all. With Thiero still out, this is good news for the Hogs, who might be in trouble in a foulfest. Kansas doesn’t do foulfests.

The Jayhawks have veteran guards who get tremendous ball movement and rarely turn it over. That’s a good formula to win in March, and the end result for Kansas is an offense that pounds the paint, ranking 37th in percentage of field goals to come in the paint and 38th in field goal percentage in the paint.

Arkansas will offer a strong paint defense (22nd in opponent paint field goal percentage) without fouling (45th) and with solid defensive rebounding (40th). In that sense, this matchup is good-on-good. The concern for the Hogs is that they allow way too many attempts in the paint, ranking 203rd in that stat. They haven’t faced a player like Dickinson, but they haven’t done a good job of denying opposing bigs good looks down low. They defend those shots well, but a skilled player needs only an opportunity to make a defense pay.

It will be discussed in more detail below, but this is a Jonas Aidoo game. The Hogs need him to be the brick wall he’s been at times during his career if they’re going to stop Kansas’ interior attack.

When Arkansas has the rock

Is the defense that Kansas will put on the floor on Thursday the ninth-best in the country? That’s the all-season number, but before January 11th, Kansas had five defensive grades of 70+. Since January 11th, they’ve had one. And they’ve had four defensive grades of 45 or worse since then… Arkansas has had just one all season (the road loss to LSU where Fland played hurt).

The best version of Kansas’ defense is elite in transition, forcing opponents to take their time and find a good shot against a solid halfcourt D. That’s a problem for Arkansas, a team at its best when it can run.

The Kansas defense is all about playing through its star player. The Jayhawks close off the paint, preventing any kind of good looks (42nd in usage, 18th in field goal percentage). They don’t foul (39th), and they get the defensive rebound (7th). A lack of turnover-forcing is their biggest weakness, and it means that the Hogs will get plenty of shots to crack this defense.

Inconsistent production

An issue for Kansas this year has been weirdly uneven performances, suggesting a lack of effort and execution more than a lack of talent. Take the ugly road loss to Utah, for example that occurred at the low point of the year for the Jayhawks. You might expect them to have lost due to those red numbers – allowing too many 3-pointers and not forcing enough turnovers – but that’s not what happened at all. Instead, an inferior Utah team shut down Kansas in the paint (winning 24-22 there) and dominated the glass (16-6 in offensive boards). Kansas actually shot slightly better, but Utah was plus-10 in offensive rebounds.

In their very next game, a 91-57 demolition at the hands of BYU, Kansas was again held to just 22 paint points, and again lost the offensive rebounding battle (10-9). As you might guess from the final score, lots of other things went wrong too, including BYU hitting 14 3-pointers.

The defense broke down in the Jayhawks’ most recent game, an 88-77 loss to Arizona in the Big 12 tournament. The normally-stout Kansas paint defense was throttled to the tune of 46 points in the paint allowed, compared to just 20 paint paints for Kansas.

Paint points will be a theme, as Kansas’ four worst performances of the season in terms of paint points have all come in the last month, and all four were in losses:

It’s a similar story on the other side of the ball, where Kansas’ defense has been trending in the wrong direction in terms of paint points allowed:

Their season average is just under 30 paint points per game allowed, but they’ve allowed that number to be exceeded in 12 of their last 17 games since mid-January.

Also showing cracks is Kansas’ 7th-ranked defensive rebounding rate. The Jayhawks didn’t allow anyone to win the offensive boards throughout November and December, but since Big 12 play started, they’ve been hammered on the offensive glass several times:

Paint points, rebounds, and turnovers are all places where Kansas has been shaky over the last two months. Those aren’t actually related to Kansas’ shooting woes. They’re all things the Jayhawks really should be much better at. Is it too late to turn it around?

Personnel

There are not many players in the country better than Hunter Dickinson, the 7-foot-2 fifth-year senior who is still, inexplicably, playing college basketball despite being a full-time starter for a power-conference school for five years. Three of those years were with Michigan, and the last two have been in Lawrence.

His plus-24.4 RAPM is among the best of any player in the tournament. It’s not actually the highest, although Hog fans might not have to wait long to meet the guy who is the best: that would be Zuby Ejiofor, the ultra-efficient power forward for St. John’s who originally transferred to Queens from… Kansas.

Kansas is squeezing every last drop out of Dickinson, whose 33% usage rate is at 2022 JD Notae level. Despite the extreme volume, Dickinson is still decently efficient: 54% eFG%, only 12% turnover rate, and a monster on both the offensive and defensive glass. He’s also a pretty good shot blocker. Though he’ll attempt a 3-pointer if left wide open, almost all his work is done around the rim.

Dickinson didn’t play in the exhibition, but neither did Jonas Aidoo, and this is the kind of game the Hogs brought Aidoo in to help win. He’s been a bit disappointing on defense – though his recent offensive performances have helped make up for it – but he probably gives Arkansas a better shot than Zvonimir Ivisic, who will probably struggle with Dickinson’s physicality.

Joining Dickinson in the front court is 6’7 defensive specialist KJ Adams, another veteran who faced the Hogs two years ago in the tournament. The senior took on a reduced offensive role for much of the season, but he’s been scoring a lot more in recent games. The backcourt features two solid pieces – point guard Dajuan Harris and shooting guard Zeke Mayo. Harris faced the Hogs in the 2023 game. He has been a bit iffy as a scorer, which leaves Mayo, the South Dakota State transfer, as the only serious 3-point shooting threat.

If you want to know where the hole in the roster is that caused Kansas to tumble from preseason #1 to a 7-seed, look no further than the wing. The Jayhawks brought in the portal’s best wing class: AJ Storr from Wisconsin and Rylan Griffen from Alabama. The results? Storr has been atrocious, shooting just 43% eFG%. He doesn’t rebound (at all), he doesn’t get to the line, and he’s the team’s worst defender. Griffen has been slightly better, but he’s not anywhere near the player that showed so much potential in Tuscaloosa last year. He’s shooting just 34% from beyond the arc, and his rebounding and defense are subpar.

Storr has been pushed to the edge of the Kansas rotation over the last few weeks. Griffen typically starts at the wing, but his minutes have been limited as well, with Self preferring more three-guard lineups, with Harris, Mayo, and 5’11 David Coit in the backcourt. Coit, a NIU transfer and 3-point specialist, is shooting a solid 39% from beyond the arc, but he doesn’t offer much else on either side of the ball.

The smaller Kansas rotations – 5’11 Coit, 6’2 Harris, 6’4 Mayo, 6’7 Adams – leave the Jayhawks pretty undersized outside of Dickinson, and they are susceptible to getting bullied.

Keys to the game

This one is pretty straightforward: if the Hogs win the points in the paint battle, they’ll win the game. Neither team fouls or draws fouls enough to expect to win at the free throw line, and neither team is likely to win on 3-point shooting, although both defenses will allow ample looks. And Kansas forces so few turnovers that winning the turnover battle means very little, as the Jayhawks have lost that in many games they won.

The weak link for Arkansas is at power forward, where Trevon Brazile’s minus-3.6 D-RAPM represents an awful liability against a team with several options that could take advantage of him. The Hogs could consider playing Big Z and Aidoo together in the frontcourt. A massive lineup that I’d like to see would be Fland, Davis, and Knox in the backcourt, with Z and Aidoo in the frontcourt. This lineup maximizes size and defensive value, two things that win games in March. If Fland is going to impact the game, it will more likely be on defense than on offense.