Arkansas is dancing on into the second round after a 79-72 win over Kansas. But it’s out of the frying pan and into the fire, and from one Hall of Fame coach (Bill Self) to another, Rick Pitino.
Meet the Red Storm
Rick Pitino has been around college basketball for a while. He led Boston U to the NCAA Tournament in 1983, Providence to the Final Four in 1987, and Kentucky to three Final Fours, including the 1996 national title. He also took Louisville to three Final Fours including the 2013 title (later vacated). Then he had two NCAA Tournament appearances at Iona.
Now he’s at St. John’s, proving that even after 885 total wins and 55 NCAA Tournament wins, that he’s still a great coach. The Red Storm went 20-13 last year and did well in the transfer portal last offseason. Expectations were higher but not nearly this high entering the year. The Red Storm were mostly unimpressive out of conference, losing to Georgia and Baylor, but they’ve lost just two games since November 30th. They went 18-2 in the Big East and easily won the Big East Tournament.
On paper, St. John’s is almost identical to Kansas in terms of high-level advanced stats. They feature an elite interior defense paired with a suspect offense that relies on transition buckets. The overall net efficiency and game control stats for the two teams are almost identical.
However, St. John’s and Kansas are headed in two different directions entering this tournament. Kansas looked like a 1- or 2-seed back in November, but St. John’s has looked like a 1- or 2-seed since mid-February (St. John’s games prior to late December are missing from the data but were mostly in the low 60s):
For comparison on this graphic, the Hogs earned a grade of 76 against Kentucky, their best against a power conference opponent this year. St. John’s matched or topped that in all three games of the Big East tournament plus three other regular season games.
Note that the Red Storm defense (pink line) has been solid all year, but their best games (which are becoming more common) have also featured some good offense.
The Hogs are contending with a very scrappy team that is peaking just in time for a March run.
When St. John’s has the rock
Arkansas’ best shot to win this game is to keep the lid on a fairly weak offense that relies on a steady diet of low-percentage shots.
St. John’s plays at a blistering pace, mostly because slowing down leads to worse results. They have the 6th-fastest average possession in the country and have the 6th-highest transition rate. If forced to face a set defense, they will struggle.
Pitino is old school, and he doesn’t care much for an optimized shot selection. St. John’s will avoid 3-point attempts (they don’t make them at a high rate anyway, although they’ve improved in recent weeks), but are willing to settle for plenty of long 2s. Their spacing and ball movement aren’t overly impressive compared to a more modern college offense. They don’t get to the line a ton. They’re decent at finishing in the paint, and that’s their best chance to score.
While they miss plenty of shots, they recoup many of those misses by dominating the offensive glass. The Hogs have improved their defensive rebounding since Jonas Aidoo became a bigger factor in the rotation (and even more since Trevon Brazile saw his role increase), but Kansas still had 11 offensive boards. The Red Storm lack the high-end size of Kansas, but they make up for it in tenacity (and longer guards).
When Arkansas has the rock
If you can’t beat St. John’s down the floor… then forget about it. The Johnnies own the nation’s best halfcourt defensive efficiency, and they’ve been absolutely suffocating teams in recent weeks.
The Red Storm defense is going to force turnovers and is going to make every single shot very difficult. Their turnover-forcing has its downsides: the Johnnies are occasionally foul-prone, and their defensive gambles can end up allowing some paths to the basket.
Typical of a Pitino defense, their frantic but controlled energy makes it very hard for an offense to find a good look:
Arkansas needs to get in transition, protect the basketball, and attack the offensive glass. They have to match St. Johns’ intensity, and a fast-paced, high-energy, chaotic game will give Arkansas’ top athletes a chance to shine.
This Arkansas team has not been good at offensive rebounding, but they had 12 against Kansas, who came ranked 7th in the nation in defensive rebounding rate. If they can punish St. John’s in the paint like they did Kansas, they can win this game.
Personnel
The extreme RAPM numbers of the St. John’s roster highlight how few elite players they actually have… but how much mileage they get out of those guys. The core of this team are point guard Kadary Richmond, forward Zuby Ejiofor, and wing RJ Luis. Each has played more than 80% of team minutes this year, so they’ll rarely come off the floor. Aaron Scott, Simeon Wilcher, and Deivon Smith round out the normal rotation, while other guys are used more sparingly.
The rotation surrounds the ultra-efficient Ejiofor with a bunch of extremely inefficient jump shooters. Only one St. John’s regular shoots better than 33% from beyond the arc, and only three of the top nine players manage to top even (a very pedestrian) 52% true shooting. Everyone will take at least some 3-pointers, especially in transition, and especially if left open. But the entire lineup can rebound, and none of them are major turnover liabilities, which helps the Red Storm win by creating extra possessions.
Richmond, a 6’6 transfer from Seton Hall, is a high-volume but inefficient scorer whose biggest value is his elite defense. He rebounds well, avoids turnovers, and leads the team in assists, but he shoots just 18% from beyond the arc.
Richmond has the ball in his hands a lot, but it’s Luis, the 6’7 wing, who does most of the scoring. He’s also not an overly efficient shooter (44% field goals, 33% from 3), but, like Richmond, he rebounds well and avoids turnovers. He’s averaging 18.4 points per game.
Efficiency is the specialty of Ejiofor, the 6’9 former Kansas Jayhawk. He averages 14.6 points and 8.0 rebounds per game on 58% shooting. He’s also the team’s best foul magnet by a very large margin. His 64% true shooting is the best on the team by a very large margin. Not having Adou Thiero is really going to stink here, but as the Red Storm have no true center, the task of stopping Ejiofor is likely going to fall to Jonas Aidoo.
Small forwards, tall guards
The core trio are all very tall – 6’6, 6’7, and 6’9 – but that’s about all the size the Red Storm have. Smith is 6’0 and Wilcher 6’4. Smith offers a modest 3-point threat (37%) but struggles inside the arc and grades poorly in the analytics. Wilcher is – you guessed it – yet another extremely inefficient shooter, hitting just 29% from beyond the arc despite a high volume of attempts. Ditto for Scott, a 6’7 transfer from North Texas who shoots 30% from downtown.
The combo of Aidoo and Trevon Brazile is, on paper, going to be tough for St. John’s to stop without a rim protector. The Johnnies were able to bother Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner in two of the three meetings between those two teams (he had 16 points in a Creighton win in their first meeting), but against more athletic forwards, they had issues. Georgia’s Asa Newell had 18 points in Georgia’s win over St. John’s, while Baylor’s Norchad Omier had 24 points and 10 rebounds in a double-overtime win.
If the Hogs can punish the Red Storm in the paint, all bets are off for an elite St. John’s defense. Expect the Johnnies to do everything in their power to deny looks to Aidoo and Brazile. Pitino won’t play zone like Bill Self did, but he may double the post and risk kick-out drives or 3-point looks.
Keys to the game
Offensively, the Hogs have a lot of work to do. They cannot settle for contested jump shots, cannot have lazy turnovers, and must crash the offensive glass. They need to get the ball into the paint and use the size of Aidoo and Brazile to get offensive rebounds. That’s the kind of game St. John’s wants to avoid.
Defensively, as long as they don’t get punished by tall guards off the dribble, the Hogs should be able to get plenty of stops. They’ll need to finish good defensive possessions with rebounds as well.
In the end, the biggest key is similar to the Kansas game: win points in the paint, win the game. This game will be tougher in terms of generating shots thanks to St. John’s turnover-forcing and offensive rebounding, but the Hogs might have an easier time keeping the Red Storm out of the paint defensively.