Against all odds, Arkansas is back in the Sweet Sixteen.

Those of us who endured the awful post-Nolan years of 2001 to 2019 remember that the Hogs had just six NCAA Tournament bids in those 19 season, with zero top-4 seeds and only seed better than seventh. The Hogs were 3-6 in those six bids, with no trips past the first weekend.

The last five years have, by contrast, been special. Eric Musselman’s 2021 team won three NCAA Tournament games to reach the Elite Eight, matching Arkansas’ Big Dance win total from the previous 21 years combined and getting the Hogs to the second weekend for the first time since 1996. And then he kept winning: another Elite Eight followed in 2022, with the program’s first-even win over a 1-seed (Gonzaga). And even a disappointing 2023 season still was salvaged with a win over 1-seed Kansas to reach yet another Sweet Sixteen. The totals from Musselman’s five-year run: eight NCAA Tournament wins (tied with Alabama for the most in the SEC over that span), three trips to the second weekend.

Lest anyone feared that the fun postseason headed west with Muss, the Hogs are back. A new coach, a new roster, an injury-plagued regular season, a very tough path… but the same result. The Hogs knocked off a pair of Hall of Fame coaches to reach the Sweet Sixteen. With the team peaking and the healthiest its been in more than two months, there’s no telling what’s possible.

In San Francisco on Thursday, the Razorbacks’ opponent is Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are extremely dangerous. A lack of dominant wins has caused them to be a bit overlooked, but the analytics love this team, and for good reason. They are quite different from either Kansas or St. John’s, and it’s probably going to take Arkansas’ best performance of the season in order to win.

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  Box Score Breakdown: Texas Tech 85, Arkansas 83
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  Matchup Analysis: 3 Texas Tech
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  Box Score Breakdown: Arkansas 75, St. John’s 66

Meet the Red Raiders

Grant McCasland is a name that should be somewhat familiar to Razorback fans. The Texas native played at Baylor and spent several years as an assistant under Scott Drew. His coaching breakthrough came when he led Arkansas State to 20 wins in 2017. He followed that up with a successful stint at North Texas, leading the Mean Green to an upset of 4-seed Purdue in 2021 and then a 31-win, NIT championship season in his final year, 2023. He’s in his second season in Lubbock, where he’s won more than two-thirds of his conference games. Tech was a 6-seed last year, falling as the first victim of NC State’s Final Four run.

Simply put, the trajectory for McCasland is up, up, up. He’s definitely one of the top rising coaches in the nation. His name was mentioned as a candidate for the Arkansas job to replace Mike Anderson back in 2019, and I think he would have been successful in Fayetteville.

Our analytics say Tech is better than 2-seed St. John’s thanks to an elite offense that ranks 4th by our metrics. They don’t necessarily score a ton of points because, unlike other elite offenses, they aren’t really in a hurry on offense. They are content to work against set defenses in halfcourt, taking their time to get a good shot.

Personnel

Both teams are dealing with injuries to vital players. John Calipari says Arkansas is getting top scorer Adou Thiero back. He hasn’t played since February 22nd. Cal says he’ll likely be able to provide 12-15 minutes against Tech. He said something similar about Boogie Fland, but Fland ended up playing 24 minutes against Kansas. Of course, Fland’s thumb injury and Thiero’s knee injury are pretty different. Fland was able to do a lot with an injured thumb, but if Thiero’s knee isn’t 100%, he’s going to be actually limited in terms of the value he’s offering.

Arkansas would be well-served to get off to a strong start in this game. If the Hogs fall behind early, especially if Trevon Brazile is getting abused defensively or he or Jonas Aidoo are in foul trouble, the Hogs will have to burn some Thiero minutes just to stay afloat, which might leave him unable to play in the final stretch.

After surviving RAPM king Zuby Ejiofor and St. John’s, the Hogs get to deal with another dynamic forward. However, like St. John’s, the Red Raiders favor athleticism over length, and Arkansas’ frontcourt length is likely to be an issue for them. Tech has had some issues with the tallest teams on the schedule: two losses to Arizona, a loss to Houston, and a very close win against Kansas.

Tech’s injury is to minutes leader Chance McMillian, a 6’3 fifth-year senior who spend three seasons at Grand Canyon and two in Lubbock. He’s a high-volume 3-point shooter, shooting 43% this year (and 41% over his career) on a little more than five attempts per game. His +11.3 O-RAPM and +6.2 O-BPM are both the second-highest on the team, so it would be a big deal if he’s fully healthy and able to play. He is a subpar defender, however. He did not play in either first weekend game although he was apparently very close. Arkansas should probably expect to see him, even if in a limited capacity.

When you’re talking Tech, the biggest name to watch is JT Toppin, a 6’9 sophomore forward who transferred from New Mexico. He averages 18.1 points and 9.3 rebounds per game on a monster 38% usage, and he’s the Big 12 Player of the Year. He never turns the ball over (only 9%) and is a maniac on the offensive glass, recording more than three offensive boards per game. Though he’ll occasionally step out and try a 3-pointer, he shoots only 31% from downtown and does most of his damage inside the arc. He’s good defensively, too, helping Tech limit damage in the paint and adding a few rebounds and blocks, though he’s not a top-tier rim protector. Fouls could be a concern in extended minutes, as he’s whistled for just under 3.5 personal fouls per 40 minutes.

His frontcourt mate is 6’6 junior Darrion Williams, a onetime Nevada transfer. Williams puts up 14.3 points per game on an also-high 30% usage. He’s a capable 3-point threat (35% on about four attempts per game) and also a very good passer, totaling more than three assists per game. Unlike Toppin, he doesn’t add much as a defender and he’s more limited in the paint.

If Tech needs more size, they do have an option on the bench in 6’11 center Federiko Federiko, a transfer from Pitt. Federiko is not the most mobile option in the world, but he’s a decent rim protector and rebounder who can finish at the rim if he gets the ball in the right spot. The plus-minus numbers (like RAPM) love him, but he’s often in foul trouble against more athletic opponents, and putting him in requires adjusting the roles (and minutes) of either Toppin or Williams. If Arkansas’ length proves too much for the Tech defense, expect to see him play quite a bit. Should that happen, Big Z might have an chance to see the floor as a counter in what otherwise is not a good matchup for him.

The backcourt consists of 5’11 point guard Elijah Hawkins and 6’2 shooting guard Christian Anderson. Both protect the ball, shoot 3-pointers at a good volume, and play solid defense. Hawkins, a senior who transferred from Howard and then Minnesota, shoots just 32% from beyond the arc, but he’s more valuable as a distributor, leading the team with 6.5 assists per game. Anderson, who typically comes off the bench but actually plays starter-level minutes, is a dangerous 3-point shooter, hitting 39% on about five attempts per game but offering little else on offense.

While McMillian has been out, most minutes at the wing have gone to 6’5 senior Kerwin Walton, a third-year Tech player who started his career at North Carolina. Walton is a fairly significant downgrade from McMillian. He can get hot from downtown (40% on four attempts per game), but he struggles to score inside the arc, is a very bad rebounder at both ends, and grades as the team’s worst defender in terms of on-floor team defensive efficiency. The other option on the wing is 6’5 sophomore Kevin Overton, a Drake transfer, who struggles to shoot (41% overall, 32% from 3), but rebounds and defends better than Walton. Overton’s usage has been situational: he scored 20 points in 34 minutes in a loss to Arizona in the Big 12 tournament, but played just 39 total minutes last weekend, scoring a combined four points.

Another opportunity for the Razorback frontcourt

Tech’s healthy starting five is Toppin and Williams in the frontcourt and McMillian, Hawkins, and Walton in the backcourt. Anderson often subs in for Walton to offer more shooting, while Federiko can come in for Toppin or Williams to offer more size and rim protection.

The frontcourt is extremely skilled and versatile, but with starters at just 6’9 and 6’6, there’s not a ton of length. Arkansas is going to roll with 6’11 Aidoo and 6’10 Brazile, and the quickness gap is going to be a lot smaller than the size gap between these two duos.

In the St. John’s preview, we mentioned that Arkansas’ athletic frontcourt – the main drivers of the Hogs’ massive in-season improvement – was likely to present a problem for the Red Storm, who didn’t see a lot of athletic forwards in the Big East but struggled with Georgia’s Asa Newell and Baylor’s Norchad Omier in November games. Arkansas ended up scoring 46 points in the paint, the most allowed by St. John’s all year.

Like Kansas, Tech was able to keep non-conference opponents from doing much damage in the paint, but it’s been a different story against more athletic foes. Omier’s best non-conference game was against St. John’s, but his best conference game was against Tech: 29 points and 15 rebounds, although the Red Raiders won. Big 12 offenses that were very good in the paint (like Arizona) had little trouble punishing Tech’s defense, as this chart of paint points allowed by game shows:

Since February 8th (the first Arizona loss), Tech has allowed 40+ paint points five times, and only three of 11 opponents have had fewer than Tech’s season average of 30 per game. For comparison, Arkansas’ last game allowing 40+ was on February 8th, to Alabama. So just as we’ve seen for two NCAA Tournament games, paint points are going to matter. If Arkansas is able to punish Tech in the paint, they may can score enough points to win.

Of course, you’ve also got to stop Tech’s elite offense… or at least slow it down.

When Texas Tech has the rock

McCasland is a defensive-minded coach, and his Arkansas State and North Texas teams were known for a slow pace, good defense, and mediocre offense. But this year, he got the right pieces together to have a very good offense.

Tech ranks outside the top 100 in both transition rate (115th) and average possession length (152nd), so while the Red Raiders aren’t Virginia-slow on offense, they aren’t in a hurry. Their solid fast break scoring rate (51st) and transition efficiency (6th) highlights that they only will try to run if they have a clear numbers advantage.

You don’t have to run when you have a top-10 halfcourt offense, and that’s what Texas Tech has. They don’t mind going deep into the shot clock to break defenses down, so the Hogs will have to be ready to consistently maintain good position for 30 seconds against a very disciplined team.

Unlike Kansas or St. John’s, this team can hit jump shots. Tech ranks top-20 nationally in 3-point percentage, and they do it on a high volume of attempts (83rd). As we saw above, they have several dangerous shooters.

Along with their shooting, they also create tons of shots for themselves. They are top-20 in both turnover rate and offensive rebounding rate. This allows them to survive bad shooting nights by overwhelming their opponents with volume.

The biggest weakness is the unoptimized shot selection. Toppin is the only real paint threat, as the other four guys are mostly jump shooters. So unlike Kansas or St. John’s, they are not going to stubbornly pound the ball at the rim: instead, they are going to look for open 3-pointers and will happily take long 2s if that’s the best available shot. Related to a lack of paint attempts is a lack of free throws. The Red Raiders are not foul-hunters and probably won’t cause a foul-fest like we saw against St. John’s.

Arkansas’ defensive strategy

A concern for Arkansas is definitely defense against that 4 position. Brazile has struggled as an on-ball defender, and he tends to sag off of his man on the perimeter, allowing open 3-point looks. Arkansas does have big wins over good 3-point shooting teams like Kentucky and Missouri, but those games happened with a healthy Thiero. Can they get a strong defensive performance with Brazile playing major minutes?

I would be surprised if Arkansas does anything exotic like doubling Toppin. I think you go spend big NIL money on a forward like Aidoo because you expect him to be able to hold up 1-on-1 against an elite scoring forward in the post. If the Hogs don’t double, as many of Tech’s opponents have had to, they reduce the risk of the kickout 3-pointer that Tech likes.

Arkansas will probably aim to smother the perimeter, avoid fouls, and compete for rebounds. If Tech gets unconscious from 3 or blows up the Hog post defense, then you tip your cap to them.

When Arkansas has the rock

A big question for Arkansas is whether the Hogs will see zone. While it’s certainly possible – even Bill Self went zone in the Round of 64! – McCasland is not a big zone guy and would probably only use it as a last resort. Coaches who emphasize tough defense, like McCasland, tend to hate running zone because it has several well-established weaknesses: it is susceptible to offensive rebounds (which would be a huge threat in this game), it allows open 3-pointers (less of a threat to Tech), and it is vulnerable if the offense attacks in transition before it can be set up (a possible threat as well). Also, teams that don’t use it frequently often don’t practice it a lot, which leaves coaches anxious about the ability to execute.

Arkansas is going to want to push the ball down the floor quickly after every live-ball turnover and defensive rebound. Texas Tech does a good job at preventing transition possessions overall (20th), and especially preventing points off turnovers (11th) due to their offense’s low turnover rate, but when opponents are able to get down the floor quickly, they struggle to defend, ranking just 236th in transition efficiency defense.

When forced into halfcourt, the Hogs need to attack the paint, as we saw from the numbers (and size advantage) above. Tech ranks just 61st in paint scoring rate defense, and they’ve been much worse than that since conference play started.

The Red Raiders force a lot of long 2s, have a good first-shot defense on all shot types, and clear the defensive rebound well. They are not a strong pressing team and they don’t force a ton of turnovers.

Like St. John’s, their defense has shown some vulnerability to driving guards, which is exactly what Arkansas is going to want to do. The Hogs have had success with DJ Wagner and (more recently) Karter Knox and even Billy Richmond III off the dribble. If Thiero is able to contribute anything offensively, he’s also strong off the dribble. Tech’s 203rd-ranked opponent free throw rate is largely due to having to foul guys who had paths to the basket.

Ultimately, the Razorbacks cannot get into a 3-point shootout and hope to win. The Hogs must pound the smaller Red Raiders in the paint, collecting high-percentage looks, fouls, and offensive rebound opportunities.

Keys to the game

Points in the paint has been the theme of Arkansas’ first two wins, and it will be a factor again in this game. This time, it’s not quite the end-all, be-all, because Tech is capable of getting hot from 3 and winning the game without winning the paint.

Arkansas will want to take that away by smothering the perimeter on defense and rebounding well. Offensively, the Hogs need to push the pace and beat Tech down the floor whenever numbers are there. In halfcourt, get guards going downhill and be prepared to play through contact.

Tech is the strongest opponent Arkansas has seen in the tournament so far, and while the first two opponents had offensive issues, this team absolutely does not. Still, the two offenses better than Tech that Arkansas has faced this season were Auburn (1st) and Florida (3rd), and the Hogs held both to near-season-lows in scoring, although they lost both games.

Winning will require Arkansas’ most complete game of the year, but there’s a real possibility that the Hogs pull this off and return to the Elite Eight.