Having already beaten North Dakota State, the Hogs now take a shot at rival South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits will likely be better than NDSU and possibly better than Fordham by the time it’s all said and done this year, so this could end up looking like a solid victory should the Hogs win.
The Jackrabbits made a weird scheduling decision: they played St. Bonaventure on Tuesday night ahead of a Wednesday road game in Fayetteville. Fatigue (or jetlag) could end up playing a factor.
Last year’s Jackrabbits
The 2022 Jackrabbits had a historic season, winning the Summit League regular season and conference tournament title and earning a 13-seed, where they were a popular upset pick against Providence. The Friars managed to prevail in a close game.
Led by star shooter Baylor Scheierman and lanky forward Douglas Wilson, the Jacks were an offensive machine, ranking as one of the top-10 most efficient offenses in the nation.
This year’s Jackrabbits
After last year’s run, Scheierman transferred to Creighton and Wilson graduated. However, most of the rest of last year’s contributors are back, leading to this team being picked as one of the favorites in the Summit League.
Through three games, SDSU is 2-1. The Jacks opened with an 81-80 overtime loss to Akron before following up with a 68-66 win over Boise State. On Tuesday, they knocked off St. Bonaventure, 66-62.
Our first model pick of the year is here: Arkansas 73, South Dakota State 57. The model is using a tiny sample size so don’t expect much out of it yet.
Scouting Report
South Dakota State wants to pace-and-space you on offense. They play position-less offense with good spacing and are most dangerous in transition (22nd in transition rate, 23rd in transition scoring). Last year, they ranked #1 in the nation in 3-point percentage on a fairly low rate of attempts. This year’s team, however, is not shooting nearly as well. They are neither big nor physical, causing them to struggle in rebouding.
While their transition game is good, their halfcourt offense stinks (312th in halfcourt efficiency). A lack of offensive rebounds (359th) leaves them reliant on shooting, and shots aren’t falling. They get bullied under the rim and shoot a poor percentage there, so they have to take a lot of midrange jumpers. They do draw fouls at a good rate. They have only one offensive threat, although he’s pretty good (see below).
On defense, they do everything you’d expect a Dakota team to do: they clear defensive rebounds (12th), they get back and prevent fast breaks (44th), and they don’t foul (10th in free throw attempt rate). Their biggest vulnerability is perimeter defense, where they rank 223rd in 3-point share and 199th in 3-point field goal defense.
Personnel
- Matt Dentlinger, SF, 6’8. Dentlinger is everything to this team so far, leading the Jacks in points (17.0), overall grade (90), net points produced per 100 possessions (+7.1), usage (24%), and offensive rating among starters (121.9). He can be a bit foul-prone – he fouled out of the loss to Akron – so that might be a good way to attack him. He’s a minimal three-point threat.
- Zeke Mayo, SG, 6’3. Mayo is following up a strong freshman season (9.6 ppg last year) with extra volume this year (team leader in total possessions). He’s second on the team in scoring, but he’s requiring way too many possessions to do it: his 39 grade, minus-3.9 net points produced, and 68.9 offensive rating are all the worst among SDSU’s main rotation players. Basically, you want this guy to try to shoot.
- Alex Arians, PG, 6’4. The fifth-year senior is struggling to shoot the ball this year (36% EFG), but he’s done well as a distributor, leading the team in assists.
- Charlie Easley, CG, 6’2. Easley was the MVP of the win over St. Bonaventure, causing him to rocket up to 2nd on the team in grade (73) and net points produced (+2.3). He’s not shooting well (40% EFG), but he has the lowest turnover rate in the Jacks’ rotation and is a capable defender.
- William Kyle III, PF, 6’9. Kyle shoots a very high percentage (74% EFG) on low usage. At just 215 pounds, he’s a bit of a stick who can easily be out-physicaled under the basket. Despite being the tallest rotation player for the Jacks, he’s yet to grab an offensive rebound this season, and he turns the ball over at a high rate. Still, he leads the team in plus-minus per 100 floor possessions (+11).
- Matt Mims, SG, 6’0. Here’s a guy who knows his role: Mims’ 13% usage is the lowest on the team. He’s taken 11 shots, hitting 5 of 9 from beyond the arc. The Jacks would be fine with him being a low-usage 3-point sniper, but unfortunately, when he’s not shooting, he’s turning it over: he’s already turned it over five times this season.
I’m most interested to see how the Hogs defend Dentlinger. It’s easy to be confident that Eric Musselman will find a way to stop these guards, who have not been overly productive.
Failure to get back on defense is the biggest way for this game to become an upset, as SDSU is rather dependent on transition scoring.
Keys to the Game
Control the glass. Dakota schools are typically bad at offensive rebounding and good at defensive rebounding, which allows them to be net neutral on the glass. But the Jacks are horrible at offensive rebounding, which is putting way too much pressure on their shooting. If the Razorbacks dominate the boards, they should be able to control the game.
Get back on defense. South Dakota State is very good in transition and, given how bad their halfcourt offense is, very reliant on getting in transition. If the Hogs get their halfcourt defense set up, the Jackrabbits will have a hard time getting anything going, but if allowed to run, this game could get interesting.
Hit some 3-pointers. Don’t get me wrong: there are a lot of ways Arkansas can win (even comfortably) without shooting well from beyond the arc. But the Jacks’ defense is struggling on the perimeter so far, making this a prime opportunity for the Hogs to knock down some triples. A lack of jump shooting is easily the biggest concern about the Hogs this year, so I’m interested to see if they can get the shooting going before Nick Smith’s return.
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