Arkansas moved to 3-0 with a 71-56 win over South Dakota State on Wednesday night, in the team’s final tuneup for a trip to Hawai’i for the Maui Invitational.
Nick Smith didn’t play, though Eric Musselman was optimistic that he could return to practice soon. Jordan Walsh also injured his leg in the second half. It initially looked bad as he was helped to the locker room, though he was able to return to the bench later. His exact status isn’t clear.
Advanced Stats
Confused? Check out the advanced stats glossary to learn more about the stats cited here.
Our model prediction of 73-57 from the preview was almost perfect, and the game played out about how we thought, with the Hogs shooting slighter better from 3 than expected but also turning it over more than expected.
The Razorbacks easily could have won this game by more points, but Musselman started getting deep into his bench with 8 minutes left in the game, and the Razorbacks finished the game playing very sloppy. Our model removes “garbage time” for calculations of all-season stats (though not single-game recaps like what you see here), and this game entered garbage time with about six minutes left.
As we talked about in the preview, the Jackrabbits wanted to run, and run they did. This game was played at a blistering pace. The Jacks were actually faster than the Hogs, averaging fewer than 15 seconds per possession. Almost a quarter of their possessions lasted 10 seconds or less, however, they scored just 15 transition points. The Razorbacks had two fewer transition possessions and 12 more transition points. That proved to be key, because these teams were actually dead even when confined to halfcourt (again, Arkansas’ halfcourt efficiency was horrible in the final few minutes, which played a role).
Turnovers were a major issue for both sides, as each had 20 turnovers. The Hogs created about three extra shots through offensive rebounding, but this game was ultimately won by better jump shooting (!). Recall the third Key to the Game from the preview:
Hit some 3-pointers. Don’t get me wrong: there are a lot of ways Arkansas can win (even comfortably) without shooting well from beyond the arc. But the Jacks’ defense is struggling on the perimeter so far, making this a prime opportunity for the Hogs to knock down some triples. A lack of jump shooting is easily the biggest concern about the Hogs this year, so I’m interested to see if they can get the shooting going before Nick Smith’s return.
Mission: accomplished! The Hogs were actually 7 of 16 from beyond the arc before garbage time, but Joseph Pinion (0 of 3) and Cade Arbogast (0 of 1) tanked the team percentage in the final minutes.
In this game, Arkansas’ problem was the opposite of the first two games: not enough shots at the rim. The Hogs took half their shots at the rim in the first two games, but the Jacks are decent at denying rim shots, and the Razorbacks took barely one-third of shots at the rim. That played a role in not getting free throw chances. Now to be fair, this isn’t overly concerning, since every time this game got close, the Hogs immediately got to the rim at will to extend the lead.
A few notes on this personnel chart:
- Jordan Walsh is the advanced stats MVP, grading out at 98 for the game. The “game grades” combine box score contribution and how good the team was with that player on the floor to give a total view of how much that player impacted the game. Arkansas was +20 during Walsh’s 16 minutes, and he was having his best shooting performance of the season before getting injured. Hopefully he’s okay.
- Anthony Black also had his best performance as a Hog, grading at 90. He’s still searching for an offensive role (just 8% usage), but he’s making the team better just by being out there due to his good passing, rebounding, and defense.
- Jalen Graham is a stat-stuffer: his 39% usage is the highest by a Hog in a single game this year, as he totaled two points, six rebounds in just 8 minutes. But he had two turnovers and dogged it on defense, leading Musselman to angrily yank him from the game late in the first half. He did not return. He finishes as the lowest-graded Hog, and the apparent battle between him and Kamani Johnson for the eighth spot in the rotation is still tight.
- Note South Dakota State’s best player, Matt Dentlinger, at the bottom. We discussed in the preview how Dentlinger is the Jackrabbits’ best offensive threat, and the Hogs succeeded in removing him from the game. The Jacks were minus-24 in his 22 minutes.
Highlights
Warmachine2013 has been the best in the business for years at making Hog highlight videos.
Up Next
The Razorbacks head to Maui to take on Louisville. The Cardinals are struggling in Kenny Payne’s debut season: they are 0-3, with all three losses coming by exactly one point. They’ll be hungry for a win, but their halfcourt offense is really, really bad, so expect an ugly, low-scoring game.
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