Arkansas is back at home Saturday for what was once expected to be the worst opponent of the season, San José State. While the Spartans have overachieved to some degree, this still figures to be more of a tuneup with the big Oklahoma game looming next Saturday.
All eyes will be on Nick Smith. ESPN’s Jeff Borzello wrote a feature this week on Smith’s return to the lineup, noting that scouts are anxious to see how Smith meshes with Arkansas’ offense now that Anthony Black has emerged as the main ballhandler. During the foreign tour and exhibitions, Smith mostly initiated the offense, but Black has flourished over the last four games with Smith out. Now scouts are salivating to see how the Hogs look with Black as initiator and Smith as his pick-and-roll partner.
Meet the Spartans
San José State has had very little basketball success despite a long history. The Spartans have three NCAA Tournament appearances all-time, and the last was in 1996. The program’s move from the WAC to the Mountain West several years ago made life very difficult for this program. SJSU has a losing record against every current Mountain West team, including 3-37 against Boise State, 0-22 against Colorado State, and 6-43 against UNLV.
However, the Spartans believe they are turning a corner. They hired Tim Miles as coach last season. Miles was 116-114 in seven seasons as Nebraska’s head coach, with one NCAA and two NIT appearances. Miles also led Colorado State to the 2012 NCAA Tournament, so he was certainly an impressive land for a program of SJSU’s caliber. The Spartans went 8-23 (1-17) in Miles’ first season, but they are hoping for improvement this year.
So far, so good. The schedule is hilariously weak, but wins are wins for the Spartans, who are coming off back-to-back neutral court victories.
Model pick: Arkansas 75, San José State 56. That’s right in line with Vegas’ 19-point opening spread.
Right now, North Dakota State is much worse (model likes SJSU 72-65 on a neutral floor), but there’s still a decent chance this ends up being the worst opponent Arkansas plays this year. Last year, SJSU recorded seven non-conference wins but went just 1-17 in conference play.
The Spartans are capable 3-point shooters, but that’s about all they have going for them. You might expect a higher-scoring game, given that SJSU is decent on offense and bad on defense, but the Spartans like to play at a very slow pace, so that’s probably going to eat up possessions unless the Hogs can speed them up (which might happen!).
When San José State has the ball
For the Spartans to keep things close, their offense has to give them a shot. This is a decent offense that creates good shots and will test the Hogs on the perimeter.
They will take their time, though. The Spartans are in no hurry and will not seek opportunities in transition. Their halfcourt offense is pretty good, but they don’t get many easy baskets.
The Spartans will struggle to create shot opportunities, but they will take and hit 3-pointers. That’s really their only team strength. They are turnover-prone, don’t get offensive boards, and don’t get to the line… but the shooting percentages and shot selection look solid.
Personnel
The main threat from SJSU is 6’6 combo guard Omari Moore, who has played 89% of team minutes with team-high 26% usage. Moore struggles as a 3-point shooter but is dangerous off the dribble drive. He is capable of using his height to create good shots at the rim. He’s also a pretty good rebounder, mostly defensive, but also on the offensive end. I would expect Anthony Black to be his primary defender.
The point guard is 6’1 Alvaro Cardenas. He’s a decent facilitator who takes good care of the ball, but he’s not good as a shooter, rebounder, or defender.
The most efficient scorer on the Spartan offense is their 3-point sniper, 6’7 combo forward Trey Anderson. He got off to a slow start this season but came on strong during their three-game run in the Bahamas, where he hit 10 of 17 from beyond the arc. More than half of his attempts are 3-pointers. A good defender can smother him and prevent him from getting shots off, but if left open, he is very dangerous.
The main big is 6’8 forward Sage Tolbert III. He’s the team’s best rebounder and he’s a bit of a load under the basket, where he shoots a solid percentage and gets to the line at a decent rate. And while he doesn’t shoot from outside often, he’s a threat to step out and knock down a triple if left open. He’s already fouled out of two games this year, so he can be victimized on that end of the floor.
To get size, the Spartans will use 7-foot center Ibrahima Diallo. He’s a major shot blocker who is pretty limited otherwise. He doesn’t shoot well, turns it over, and isn’t even strong on the offensive glass. Fouls will limit his minutes: he’s already fouled out of one game and had four fouls in two others, despite not topping 22 minutes in any game this season.
As Diallo will probably be limited by fouls, other options for SJSU include 6’9 combo forward Tibet Gorener, who is a pure off-ball jump shooter. He’s shooting an excellent 39 percent from beyond the arc this season with limited turnovers, but he’s very limited as a defender and doesn’t offer much on offense besides his shooting. Fresno State transfer Robert Vaihola, a 6’8 power forward, is the team’s highest-graded player thanks to his ridiculous shooting (26 of 30 from the floor this year). He’s extremely turnover-prone, and that’s presumably limited his minutes.
When Arkansas has the ball
San José State’s defense has struggled this year. When Diallo is in the game, they are better on defense but worse on offense. When Diallo is out, the opposite is true, and they have to try and out-score teams. Arkansas would probably prefer the “Diallo out” strategy, for reasons we’ll see below.
The Spartans do a nice job of getting back in transition, and I think the fact that they have decent length (especially in the 2 through 4 positions) probably discourages opponents from trying to run against them. That’s allowed them to make opponents work for their baskets, though as you can see, it hasn’t helped much.
There’s the reason you want Diallo out: rim defense. The Spartans have the best rim defense in the nation, with opponents shooting just 38% on the year (Division I average is 59%). That’s somewhat scary given that Arkansas’ offense is rather dependent on getting to the rim.
Of course, to defend that well, the Spartans have to foul like crazy. The Hogs will likely live at the free throw line for this one. Arkansas should also be able to avoid turnovers and even have a chance at catching fire from beyond the arc.
Keys to the Game
- Get Nick Smith going. This key is less about this game and more about the future, although the struggling Spartan defense is a good opportunity for Smith. The Hogs have only one more tuneup before the big Oklahoma game, and Smith needs to be fully in the flow by that game. I expect extended minutes for Smith, maybe up to 20 or so, and it would be nice to see him look comfortable in the offense.
- Stay disciplined on the perimeter. The Spartans don’t do much well on offense other than hit 3-pointers. They can probably keep this game close for a while if they get hot.
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