Box Score Breakdown: Arkansas 81, Texas A&M 70

Box Score Breakdown: Arkansas 81, Texas A&M 70

Adam Ford

1 Feb, 2023

After a two-game SEC win streak that came against the bottom of the conference standings, the Hogs needed to beat a team with a pulse to feel like they were actually turning a corner. That came on Tuesday night in icy Fayetteville, as the Hogs knocked off 7-1 Texas A&M, controlling the game wire-to-wire.

Devo Davis and Ricky Council IV each had 19 points, while the real star was Makhel Mitchell, who recorded nine points, 13 rebounds, and seven blocks on his birthday.

Team Stats

The Hogs sped the Aggies up significantly, which made for a much faster game. Texas A&M averaged a brisk 14.1 seconds per possession and had 25% of their possessions last 10 seconds or fewer. Despite that, the Hogs matched their 25 transition points and were more efficient in halfcourt.

A couple of points here:

  • Arkansas’ offense replicated its Baylor performance. We talked in the preview about how Texas A&M runs the same no-middle defense as Baylor, so the Hogs would probably attack in the same way. That’s exactly what happened. Arkansas’ shot selection was almost the same, as was the breakout of shooting percentages from each shot type. The Hogs crashed the offensive boards but turned it over a little too much. The only difference is that it was a faster game (63 possessions against Baylor versus 72 this time) and the Hogs were a little better in this one at getting to the free throw line, something we expected given how aggressive the Aggies are. That’s how the Hogs got 81 points instead of 64.

The Hogs even ran the exact same high iso with double posts that we looked at in the preview:

  • Texas A&M wasn’t as dominant on the glass as you might think. The Aggies had 24 offensive rebounds, which certainly makes it seem like they were much better on the boards than the Hogs. But check out those rebounding rates: basically even. The Aggies had a lot more offensive rebounds because they missed a lot more shots. They had a lot more chances. That’s a still a high rate, but the Hogs had a high rate too. The Hogs just had fewer chances because they were actually making their shots, but both teams came up with nearly half their missed field goals.
  • Arkansas was dominant around the rim. The Aggies shot just 38% at the rim. They had little trouble getting there, but the Hogs completely stuffed them on those attempts. This was an elite rim protector performance by Makhel Mitchell.

Individual Stats

I think Makhel has clearly demonstrated that he’s the best option at center for right now. He’s been much better than his brother since SEC play started.

Let’s update those kill numbers from the preview. Remember that a “kill” is a steal, block, or drawn charge. Here are kills per 40 minutes leaders for the season:

  1. Makhel Mitchell 8.3
  2. Makhi Mitchell 5.4
  3. Kamani Johnson 4.6
  4. Jalen Graham 4.1
  5. Trevon Brazile 4.0

A dominant lead for Makhel. But the ability to generate kills alone doesn’t make a great defender. If you foul constantly while killing possessions, then you won’t see the floor for long. So the stat “kills per foul” tells us how skilled players are at killing possessions without fouling. Here are those leaders:

  1. Makhel Mitchell 1.54
  2. Anthony Black 1.31
  3. Nick Smith 1.17
  4. Makhi Mitchell 0.94
  5. Devo Davis 0.91

So Makhel grades as an incredibly-skilled defender all-around.

One last thing we can do is adjust those “kills per 40 minutes” to account for the fact that you have five fouls to give. A “foulout-adjusted kills per 40 minutes” tells us how many kills a player could get in 40 minutes but stops accumulating kills after a player hits five fouls. So this tells us how many kills a player could actually get if they played a full 40-minute game but could foul out of it:

  1. Makhel Mitchell 7.7
  2. Makhi Mitchell 4.7
  3. Trevon Brazile 4.0
  4. Anthony Black 3.5
  5. Jalen Graham 3.5

All of that is just a bunch of fun with math to tell us that Makhel is really good at stopping opponent possessions. He remains somewhat limited on offense, but when and if Nick Smith returns and contributes on offense, I don’t think that will matter, as the Hogs will have plenty of offensive firepower and Makhel’s defense will be what is valuable.

Up Next

South Carolina is the worst team in the SEC by a mile. That game in Columbia is an absolute must-win on Saturday.

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