Arkansas put up a strong fight on Saturday at Alabama, but a late comeback fell just short and the Tide survived, 86-83, to sweep the season series.
There are certainly more positives than negatives in this game. Arkansas jumped to an early lead and led by nine at halftime, then after losing that lead early in the second half, mounted an impressive comeback that was just barely too little, too late.
Team Stats
This game was played at a terrifying pace: 82 possessions, officially the fastest-paced game of the season for Arkansas. So the high scoring was due in part to the fast pace, not just a lot of offense.
Arkansas was the better team in transition, which was one our keys to the game. The Hogs outscored the Tide 26-25 despite Alabama getting two additional transition opportunities.
But the Hogs lost this game in halfcourt. Their defense just wasn’t quite good enough, the offense, kept afloat by good 3-point shooting, only scored on 45% of its halfcourt possessions. Too many empty trips made the Hogs come up just short.
Arkansas created six additional field goal attempts (70-64), shot roughly the same eFG% on those (48% to 45%), and had roughly the same number of free throws (30-29). Just make the free throws, and you win the game. But Arkansas was 20 of 29 (69%), while Alabama was 25 of 30 (83%). Five extra makes in a three-point game.
The good news is here is that Arkansas’ offense protected the basketball (13% turnover rate) and shot very well from beyond the arc (75% eFG%). But the Hogs doomed themselves with far too many midrange jumpers (49% midrange share) and struggles finishing at the rim (58%). Those are related: Arkansas settled for the midrange because Alabama walled off the rim.
Defensively, Arkansas smothered the perimeter but allowed the Tide to win the game by getting to the rim. Alabama is just so hard to beat because they can have good games even when their 3-point shot isn’t falling.
Individual Stats
It was a three-man show for the Hogs, with Nick Smith, Devo Davis, and Ricky Council IV all scoring 20+ points and no one else even hitting double figures.
A few thoughts:
Makhi Mitchell is not built for this. I have no idea why we saw Makhi Mitchell for even 13 minutes in this game. This is not his game. You knew that Jalen Graham had a nice matchup because of his ability to win isolations (and Alabama’s defense is vulnerable to isolations) and make midrange jumpers (ditto). Graham even showed you that he could help you in this game by scoring 16 points in the first meeting. This time? Nine minutes. And the Hogs were +7 during that stretch. Makhi played 13 minutes and the Hogs were outscored by seven during that time.
Makhi struggles with physical defenses. Auburn and LSU both hounded him into bad games. In this game, he had zero points, just two rebounds, and three turnovers. Even when he would get great entry passes, he wasted them by looking like he had no idea what to do:
He did this at least three times in this game, though to be fair, Arkansas ended up scoring on this possession and on another one when he made a great pass to a cutting Jordan Walsh, so it wasn’t all bad.
This was definitely a game where you miss Trevon Brazile. Eric Musselman wanted the Mitchell twins to fight with traditional post teams like Kentucky, but for opponents like Alabama, the objective was to space them out and win with tall guards. Alabama rim protector Charles Bediako played just 19 minutes, and the Tide were +3. You probably need Makhel for those 19 minutes, but I think the goal with Brazile would be to win the other 21 minutes, when Alabama (and everyone else in the country) cannot match up to a lineup with Brazile at the 5. But the Hogs couldn’t win those other 21 minutes, in part because Makhi Mitchell just doesn’t give you what you need. I’m not sure why Arkansas didn’t go to Graham earlier.
Per DRAPM, Makhi now grades as Arkansas’ second-worst defender, ahead of only Joseph Pinion. He’s not a shot-block threat like his brother and is slightly worse as a rebounder. He still grades decently on offense, but physical opponents can force him into turnovers.
Guys need to figure out their roles. The final shot was… annoying. It was a “potential game-tying 3” in the same sense that I am a “potential lottery winner” every time I fill out a ticket. Council’s shot wasn’t close. He’s a 29% 3-point shooter. Why is he taking that when Smith and Pinion are on the floor as well? The Hogs had no idea what to do there, but Council has to know that shot isn’t his to take unless it falls into his lap.
Figuring out roles is key to making a run. The 2022 team took awhile to figure out roles. Jaylin Williams had to establish himself, Au’Diese Toney had to realize that he’s the defensive stopper, and Chris Lykes had to realize that he was the free throw specialist. This team has had the extra challenge of playing most of the season without Nick Smith. Council had to be that guy, but now he needs to take more of a backseat. I thought he’s done a nice job over the last couple games overall, but that last shot was frustrating just because of how not close it was.
But there was another sequence that happened earlier in the game that really highlights this issue for Arkansas. To me, it was the sequence of the game. Up 46-45 with 14 minutes left, the Hogs are barely hanging onto a lead. They come down the floor, and this was their entire offensive possession:
This is a very nice pick-and-roll. Well-executed. But the play was run by Devo and Makhel. Five-star lottery pick Nick Smith doesn’t touch the ball. He’s currently in the middle of a seven-minute stretch in which he took zero shots. Alabama, meanwhile, is in the middle of a stretch of three straight possessions in which Brandon Miller took a shot.
Makhel missed both free throws, and then this happened:
Alabama never trailed after that point. Miller made two free throws on Alabama’s next possession, and then another layup about a minute later to push the Tide lead to 51-46. In the seven-minute stretch between Nick Smith shots in the second half, Miller had six points and Alabama turned a 42-36 deficit into a 54-46 lead, a total run of 18-4 between Smith attempts from the field.
If you want to win, you have to give the ball to your best players. In a key moment, when your lead has been cut to 1, is that really the play you want to run? Devo and Makhel on a pick-and-roll?
Arkansas still has time to figure it all out… but not much time.
Up Next
This road game against Tennessee feels like a must-win. The Vols have lost five of their last eight SEC games, and while their defense is elite, their offense is very vulnerable.
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