Getting an 8-seed means this definitely qualifies as a disappointing year, but watching poor Texas A&M have their best season in several years only to get absolutely punked by Penn State in the first round gives some good perspective: win or lose on Saturday, getting to the Round of 32 is pretty good for a down year.
The Hogs took care of business against a decent Illinois team, and now earn a date with 1-seed Kansas.
Arkansas 73, Illinois 63
Arkansas outplayed our model’s expectations, which saw a 69-67 Illini victory. As expected, both sides attacked the rim, and Arkansas took way too many midrange jumpers. The suboptimal shot selection allowed Illinois to post a higher Effective FG%. Arkansas was actually really bad at finishing around the rim, and that plus all the midrange was the main reason this game was even close.
Because what wasn’t close was shot creation. Arkansas dominated both rebounds and turnovers to a degree we have not seen during all of SEC play. Stepping out of conference allowed the Hogs to use their athleticism, and Arkansas was able to speed Illinois up and create a much faster game.
This game featured a blistering 76 possessions, with both offenses playing faster than their season averages. Illinois taking just 15 seconds per offensive possession is… too fast. Despite winning the transition battle 28-18, the Illini looked rushed all game, and posted a ghastly 60.3 offensive efficiency in halfcourt.
The Hogs reverted back to the team we saw in non-conference play. They got in transition at a good rate but weren’t very efficient there. In halfcourt, they moved at a brisk pace and broke down Illinois’ elite halfcourt defense. Amazing what getting out of SEC will do for you.
Normally, Arkansas taking 43% of their shots from midrange and shooting just 48% at the rim would be the recipe for an ugly loss. But when you go +6 in turnovers, +8 in offensive rebounds, and 76% at the free throw line, your shot selection doesn’t have to be impressive. This was a classic Musselman-coached NCAA Tournament performance from Arkansas.
The Hogs couldn’t really stop Terrence Shannon – or RJ Melendez for about two minutes – but they were able to take apart Illinois’ bigs. Coleman Hawkins had six turnovers and was minus-14, while Matthew Mayer had just two points and three turnovers and was minus-15.
If this wasn’t Jordan Walsh’s best game as a Hog, it was very close. He had just six points and four rebounds, but he added three steals, played excellent individual defense, and added great spacing and ball movement on offense. The Hogs were +15 in his 27 minutes (minus-5 in 13 minutes he was off the floor). He’s been a lot better than you probably think all year long.
Another guy who benefitted from exiting conference play was Makhi Mitchell. After a dismal ending to the season, Makhi suddenly looked like a superior athlete. He even ran the floor for a transition layup.
Meet the Jayhawks
Kansas is, truly, the birthplace of college basketball. The program at KU was founded by James Naismith, the inventor of basketball itself. Their lengthy basketball history includes four modern national titles and 16 Final Fours.
Current coach Bill Self – who famously was interested in the Arkansas job after Nolan Richardson was fired – is in his 12th season. He won his second national title last year as the Jayhawks wrestled back control of the Big 12 from Baylor. In a major storyline, Self is unlikely to coach Kansas on Saturday, as he continues to recover from a medical procedure that has already caused him to miss the Big 12 tournament and Kansas’ opening-round win over Howard. Assistant Norm Roberts has been coaching in his stead.
Our model’s “resume margin” ended up perfectly picking the top four seeds in order, so Kansas and its third-best resume is the third 1-seed.
Model pick: Kansas 76, Arkansas 67. The model thinks that Arkansas’ lack of 3-point shooting is going to bite them in this one.
Scouting Report
The Jayhawks pack a clear one-two punch in 6’8 forwards Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick. Wilson is a four-year player who has bided his team and is finally “the guy” this year. The analytics say that Kansas’ loyalty to him might be their downfall, as his RAPM is not impressive. Statistically, he doesn’t do anything particularly well at either end of the floor. He’ll take just over a third of his shots from beyond the arc, but he has a tendency to fall in love with midrange jumpers instead of consistently attacking the rim. As a result, he’s decent but not great at getting to the line.
Dick, on the other hand, is a menace. A freshman 3-point sniper, he’ll take half his shots from downtown and he’s shooting north of 40% on the year. He really helps drive Kansas’ offense with his combination of size and outside shooting.
The Jayhawks have three other clear starters and a very short bench. The point guard is 6’1 Dajuan Harris, who grades as the Jayhawks’ team MVP. Harris’ stat profile looks very similar to Alabama’s Jahvon Quinerly, which is concerning since Quinerly had two great games against the Hogs this year. Like Quinerly, Harris is an aggressive drive-and-kick guard. He boasts a massive 26% assist rate and takes the vast majority of his shots inside the arc. If you can’t stay in front of him, you’ll be in for a long night, because he can score himself or find a scorer on the move. The Hogs have had a lot of issues with guards like this, so this is probably the most concerning matchup for Arkansas in this game.
Rounding out the starting lineup are 6’6 Texas Tech transfer Kevin McCullar and 6’7 small forward KJ Adams. McCullar is a bit turnover-prone on offense, but he leads the team in steal rate and grades as an excellent defender overall. Adams acts a rim runner, starting on the perimeter but crashing to the basket, where he takes all his shots and also leads the team in offensive rebound rate. However, he also turns it over too often and is not a threat to shoot from outside.
The very short bench is led by 6’0 shooting guard Joseph Yesufu, a 3-and-D guard whose shot is not falling this year. As Kansas doesn’t have a starter over 6’8, when they need size, they can go to 6’10 center Ernest Udeh, who shoots almost 80% from the field (all around the rim) and blocks shots, but also commits fouls at an extremely high rate. Finally, there’s 6’1 guard Bobby Pettiford, a decent perimeter defender who is undone by a staggering 47% turnover rate.
When Kansas has the ball
Get ready to run! Kansas goes fast, and they have to: they do most of their damage in transition. “Transition 3 on the wing from Gradey Dick” is how many teams have met their demise this season.
When forced into the halfcourt, Kansas’ reliance on Wilson becomes an issue, and the Jayhawks may struggle to score at times. Arkansas will need to avoid turnovers of its own (Kansas is very good at cashing those in) and force the Jayhawks into their halfcourt offense as often as possible.
Like Illinois, Kansas’ offense is very good going to the rim, but struggles to hit jump shots. Unlike Illinois, the Jayhawks protect the basketball but don’t draw many fouls.
I like Arkansas’ ability to turn this game into a rockfight by giving the Jayhawks a bit more physicality than they are used to. It’s the Gonzaga strategy, and it works against very good, free-flowing offenses like Gonzaga or Kansas. That might mean extra fouls on the Hogs, but it’s usually worth it. The Hogs will need to smother the perimeter (likely), dominate the boards (very doable), and force some turnovers (will be a challenge).
When Arkansas has the ball
Kansas has had some issues slowing down the pace, but they are very good at keeping opponents out of transition. Arkansas will have an advantage if they can turn turnovers into buckets, but otherwise, Arkansas might have to do things the hard way on offense.
Ready for the good news? Like Illinois, Kansas struggles to keep opposing offenses away from the rim. The Jayhawks are 168th in defensive rim usage and 104th in rim defense. That’s Arkansas’ opening to generate enough offense to keep things close.
But to win, Arkansas will have to limit turnovers and get some offensive boards, just like they did against Illinois. Kansas isn’t elite at either – their turnover rate forced is almost exactly the same as Illinois’ for the season – but they are good.
Keys to the Game
- Turn this thing into a rockfight. There is only one key. “Rockfight” is how we described Arkansas’ gameplan for Gonzaga last year, and it applies again here. It has to be very, very ugly. Arkansas is going to have to try to physically impose themselves on the Jayhawks by out-scrapping them for rebounds and loose balls. There needs to be a ton of fouls, both ways. The game needs to be fast-paced, but not smooth.
Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow us on Twitter and on Facebook.
The latest from Fayette Villains, straight to your inbox
Enter your email to subscribe and receive new post alerts and other updates. You can unsubscribe at any time.