I’m outing myself as a nerd here, but the developers of historical grand strategy computer games often incorporate the idea of a “lucky” nation into a game. Maybe a game set in the time period of the rise of the Roman Empire will make Rome itself a “lucky” nation, giving them extra bonuses that are hidden to the human player, in order to ensure that they survive and thrive even when controlled by the AI. I mean, a game about the rise of Rome is no fun if Rome gets conquered by the Samnites early in the game, right?
Maybe that idea applies to teams in the NCAA Tournament. Much of the talk during the first weekend has centered on the “unlucky” teams – Purdue, Arizona, and Virginia – whose recent history is marred by inexplicable and stunning early exits in March. But Arkansas is earning a “lucky” team designation, and just like the modifier in a computer game, “luck” has nothing to do with it. Eric Musselman has figured out how to build his teams to win in March, and we’ve seen it for three straight years now.
Our lone key to the game was to make this a rockfight:
It has to be very, very ugly. Arkansas is going to have to try to physically impose themselves on the Jayhawks by out-scrapping them for rebounds and loose balls. There needs to be a ton of fouls, both ways. The game needs to be fast-paced, but not smooth.
The game featured 48 fouls and 51 free throw attempts. The Hogs were +8 on the offensive glass, +1 in turnovers, shot 81% from the line, and held Kansas to just five made 3-pointers. That’s how you win without being able to shoot.
Team Stats
After speeding Illinois up, the Hogs mostly slowed Kansas down, though the comeback happened at a faster pace. As we discussed in the preview, the Jayhawks rely on their elite transition offense and are merely decent in their regular halfcourt offense.
Arkansas being that good in halfcourt is really striking, as the Hogs scored on more than half of their halfcourt possessions, allowing them to win without being very effective in transition.
Kansas won the battle at the rim (usage: 38% to 33%, FG%: 74% to 63%) and shot north of 50% eFG% from beyond the arc. That allowed them to go +9% in eFG% margin. Most of the time, that’s enough to win comfortably.
But not this time. Arkansas got more from the line (+1 in attempts, +3 in makes) and, more importantly, created a lot more shots. Arkansas generated nine extra scoring chances thanks to a +10% offensive rebound margin and a +2% turnover margin. Two offensive rebounds in the final minute won the game: one by Kamani Johnson off a missed Council jumper, and one by Council (created by a tip from Walsh) on a missed free throw.
Individual Stats
Obviously, this was the Devo takeover. His 32% usage makes his one (1) turnover even more impressive, given that turnovers have been an area of struggle for him this year. He played with extreme aggression and urgency and it paid off.
I’m not sure how I would order all of his career games if I were to rank them, but this is easily the best two-game stretch of Jordan Walsh’s career. He had three offensive rebounds, two steals, and 10 points on eight shot chances. And he played tremendous defense on Jalen Wilson after the Hogs had to switch Devo Davis off of him. That’s why he was +11 in 33 minutes.
Kansas’ lack of post size meant that Arkansas’ guards could battle with the Jayhawk bigs. Council – who has been a very poor rebounder for his size all season – had six boards, right after he had 10 against Illinois. Devo had eight rebounds.
Kamani’s good, y’all
And then there’s Kamani. Our post about him being a possible option at the 5 that we wrote back in January was heavily criticized by a local Rivals writer, who noted that Kamani is a vastly inferior option when compared to the Mitchell twins, due to their high eFG% and general stat-stuffing ability, especially as rebounders and shot-blockers.
We wrote a counter the next day, which suddenly looks extremely prescient. Here’s a sampling:
And if you can afford to play a 6’7 center against a team likely to play zone, Kamani is a great option. He leads the team in offensive rebound rate (17%, that’s the percentage of missed shots while he’s on the floor where he gets the offensive rebound) and the aforementioned free throw usage rate.
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One of the claims in this case was that Kamani’s “total rebounds per 40 minutes” was the worst of all Arkansas forwards. This does appear to be true! But using “total rebounds per 40” to tell you anything presents a big issue.
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So the issue with Kamani’s rebounding is not how many boards he personally gets: it’s how well does the team rebound when Kamani is in the game? The eye test told me that Kamani does a great job of boxing out, so even if he doesn’t personally get the rebound, Arkansas as a team probably rebounds just fine when he’s in the game. Turns out, I’m right!
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“Total rebounds per 40 minutes” is every bit as useless of a stat as it appears to be: Arkansas has been better at clearing defensive boards in SEC play when Kamani is out there.
Kamani has recorded 15 rebounds (10 offensive) so far in the NCAA Tournament, which is four more offensive boards than Arkansas’ opponents have combined for when Kamani is on the floor (team offensive rebounds is 15-6 when Kamani is in the game). Additionally, Kamani drew three fouls against Kansas, third-most behind only Devo (6) and Council (7).
So yes, there’s a reason Arkansas has started Kamani in the last two games. When the matchup presents itself, he is in fact a very good option.
Of course, for those who prefer the Mitchell twins, I don’t want to be unfair, because Makhi was also very good against Kansas. After being given numerous chances to be anything other than a deadweight on offense, it appears that Makhel has run out of chances… which our numbers say is probably a good decision. But Makhi, who was mostly very bad down the stretch of the season, has now posted two good games. He still gets pulled away from the basket too easily on defense, but he once again looked very good in Arkansas’ high pick-and-roll game. And because of Makhi’s extra two inches, there will be matchups where Kamani is going to be too small.
Up Next
Arkansas faces the winner of UConn and Saint Mary’s in the Sweet 16. The Gaels would make for a much friendlier matchup due to their (relatively) lower physicality, while a game against UConn would probably look like the Kansas game: a billion fouls and lots of fighting for rebounds.
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