After a thrilling win over Kansas, the Hogs have their sights set on a third straight trip to the Elite Eight. To get there, they’ll have to go through UConn, a team loved by the analytics as a darkhorse national title contender.
Meet the Huskies
Jim Calhoun led UConn to three national titles (1999, 2004, 2011) and his successor Kevin Ollie added another one in 2014. The Huskies have been a strong program for decades, but they have been uniquely successful in March: the program has just five Final Fours all-time, and four of them ended in championships.
After the Ollie era went downhill, UConn turned to Dan Hurley, who is now in his fifth season. His rebuild has taken some time: UConn was just 16-20 in conference play during his first two years, and didn’t win an NCAA Tournament game until this season. Last year’s team earned a 5-seed and would have faced Arkansas in (an inappropriately-located game in) Buffalo, but the Huskies fell to New Mexico State in the first round.
This year’s team, however, came packed with hype, due to the return of several veterans, namely Big East Player of the Year frontrunner Adama Sanogo. After a monstrous start to the year that saw the Huskies throttle Alabama, Oregon, Oklahoma State, and Florida, they ascended to #1 in the polls., eventually starting 14-0 start. The wheels then briefly fell off, and the Huskies lost six of their next eight games before recovering. They’ve lost just twice since the end of January, with wins over Marquette, Providence (twice), and of course, Saint Mary’s and Iona.
If you thought that getting to the Elite Eight would be a breeze after that win over Kansas, think again. Our model (and Ken Pomeroy’s model) says that UConn is straight-up better than Kansas, so this game will be tougher, not easier.
Model pick: UConn 80, Arkansas 61. The model pick is 75-69 Huskies before matchup-based modifications are added, so the model does not think this is a friendly matchup for the Hogs. We’ll get into why that is below, and discuss why some elements not captured in our models (or KenPom’s) might favor Arkansas.
Scouting Report
Adama Sanogo
If you want to talk UConn, the conversation starts with 6’9 forward Adama Sanogo, who averages 17 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. Sanogo’s game can be described as the absolute best possible version of Makhi Mitchell, or maybe the current version of Makhi with Jalen Graham’s shooting touch and confidence.
Like Mitchell, Sanogo doesn’t live in the post, though that’s where the vast majority of his shots come from. He has a nice variety of low post moves and shows nice touch around the basket:
Despite a team-high 29% usage, he still manages to shoot 63% eFG%, which is why he’s so effective. And his ability to step out to the perimeter (he will occasionally attempt a 3) lets him run high pick-and-rolls with devastating efficiency.
As you can tell from the soft touch he shows in the gif above – and his classic short shorts – he’s an old-school player, which means he favors finesse over brute force. If you were expecting a foul magnet like Oscar Tshiebwe, think again. Only 12% of Sanogo’s shot chances inside the arc lead to free throws; in fact, his 110 free throw attempts this season are barely half of Ricky Council IV’s total.
So how do you keep him from dominating this game?
- Contesting. More on this below, but basically, Arkansas is not going to be able to deny him the ball like a zone team might could. He’s going to get some shots off, and the question will be how much damage can he do. Arkansas will probably leave a low defender in 1-on-1 situations with him frequently (perimeter defenders will help by trying to “dig” the ball out) and the goal will be to keep a hand up and then box out. This is what Arkansas recruited the Mitchell twins to do. I expect Makhel to play meaningful minutes in this game. If the Hogs can keep Sanogo under 60% from the floor, they can live with that.
- Turnovers. UConn as a team has some issues with turnovers, and Sanogo’s 25% turnover rate is his really his only offensive weakness. The Hogs will likely use help defenders to try and slap the ball out of his hands and take advantage of some weaknesses in his floor vision and passing to intercept (or at least deflect) passes into and out of the post.
- Fouls. Sanogo can’t hurt you if he’s on the bench with foul trouble. UConn is among the nation’s most foul-prone teams, and Sanogo really struggles to contest on defense without fouling: his 0.69 steals + blocks + charges drawn per personal foul is quite bad, only slightly better than Jordan Walsh (0.63), one of the most foul-prone Hogs. Sanogo doesn’t grade as a good defender anyway – his DRAPM grade of 38 is worse than every Hog except Joseph Pinion – but going right at him will likely cause foul trouble. UConn will try to “hide” him on defense, but Arkansas’ length and athleticism is going to make it hard for the Huskies to keep their star big man safe.
I fully expect Arkansas to do exactly what they did to Kansas’ KJ Adams late: isolate Sanogo with high ball screens and then go right him with big guards, forcing him to either contest the shot (risking a foul) or surrender a layup. We’ll see what UConn can cook up to counter that.
Donovan Clingan
If the Huskies need paint help on defense, they will call on 7’2 center Donovan Clingan. Not only is he a rim protector, he is the rim protector: his 10% block rate easily leads all of Division. I. Clingan also grabs a ridiculous 24% of all available rebounds, fourth-best in Division I behind only Oscar Tshiebwe, Zach Edey, and Southern Indiana’s Jacob Polakovich. For the year, his 9.3 defensive stops per 40 minutes (stops = weighted sum of defensive rebounds, blocks, steals, or drawn charges) is the best in Division I by an enormous margin. Unsurprisingly, his DRAPM is the 15th-best in Division I. So that’s what Arkansas has to expect when Sanogo goes out.
The good news with Clingan is he’s not nearly as much of a threat on offense. He’s a beast on the offensive glass, but his 27% turnover rate and general lack of passing and spacing means that his overall offensive contributions are fairly limited. Foul trouble could eventually be an issue with Clingan, but given that he’s only played 33% of UConn’s minutes this year, he usually doesn’t see the floor enough to collect five fouls.
Jordan Hawkins & Tristen Newton
Sanogo and Clingan provide the volume and the size in the post, and the rest of UConn’s roster is perimeter-oriented. The shooter is 6’5 sophomore Jordan Hawkins, who shoots 38% from beyond the arc on high volume. A comp for Hawkins is Mizzou’s D’Moi Hodge. Hawkins works very well away from the ball, but he’s limited in his ability to create his own shot, which is usually a problem against an Eric Musselman-coached defense. I would expect to see Devo get this assignment.
The point guard is 6’5 ECU transfer Tristen Newton, who is the most valuable offensive player for UConn, per RAPM. His playstyle is similar to Alabama’s Jahvon Quinerly or Kansas’ Dajuan Harris: drive-and-kick guards who can break down a defense off of dribble penetration but may struggle with turnovers.
Rest of the rotation
The “glue guy” is 6’6 wing Andre Jackson Jr. Don’t let his low offensive usage fool you, as he grades as UConn’s most valuable player overall, per RAPM. He doesn’t shoot particularly well (or particularly often) but he’s the best rebounding guard and also has a very high assist rate (21%). Like Sanogo, he is not overly skilled at defending without fouling, so foul trouble could be a problem for him.
The final starter is 6’8 small forward Alex Karaban, a low-usage perimeter-oriented player who is shooting 40% from beyond the arc this year. Like several of his teammates, his main issue on offense is turnovers.
Clingan is the main guy to watch off the bench, but two others are 6’4 Nahiem Alleyne and 6’3 Joey Calcaterra. Alleyne is a good perimeter defender but is the worst shooter in the rotation, while Calcaterra is a major 3-point threat who struggles a bit with turnovers and defense.
When UConn has the ball
Unlike many other elite offenses, UConn plays with average pacing and does its best work in halfcourt. The Huskies will take easy fast break chances, but won’t push it much otherwise.
Rebounds, anyone? UConn has a case to be the best overall rebounding team in the country, but they certainly are the best on the offensive glass, getting back a stunning 42% of their missed shots. Combine that with top-30 field goal shooting, and you have a recipe for an elite offense.
The best way to stop UConn is to not let them shoot in the first place. The Huskies are just 218th in turnover rate, and they will give the ball away. Every main rotation player except Hawkins has a turnover rate of more than 20%, and that includes Sanogo. If winning the rebounding battle – like the Hogs did against Illinois and Kansas – is not going to work, then dominating turnovers is a viable option.
UConn’s basic gameplan is to space the floor with four 3-point threats surrounding Sanogo or Clingan. When Clingan is in, there is increased pressure on the guards to score, and when Sanogo is in, the pressure on the guards is to defend. The Huskies take a lot of 3-point shots, which is one place where the matchup favors Arkansas: UConn’s offensive fortunes tend to swing heavily with how well they shoot from 3, even moreso than the average team. Shutting them down on the perimeter is a proven way to give yourself a chance.
UConn’s offensive spacing makes it very difficult to deny Sanogo the ball or help on him once he has it. Newton and Hawkins will occasionally drive to the rim: only Hawkins is a good finisher but both are good at drawing fouls when they drive. The guards will avoid midrange, especially jumpers outside the paint, so their shot chart looks exactly like Alabama’s:
Arkansas’ gameplan is pretty straightforward: shut down Hawkins, smother the perimeter, dominate turnovers, and be competitive on the boards and against Sanogo’s shots. The most realistic victory scenario for Arkansas involves Sanogo scoring 25 points but UConn’s guards failing to provide enough offense to complement. That’s how Arkansas has beaten big-oriented teams under Eric Musselman: Auburn, Kentucky, and Gonzaga last year are three big examples.
When Arkansas has the ball
UConn will be content to play fast with the Hogs. They are a bit vulnerable to fast breaks off their turnovers, which is another reason that Arkansas needs to force them.
Much more concerning is UConn’s issues with allowing a high rate of scoring trips in halfcourt. Let’s see why that is.
That free throw number is an issue for the Huskies. As we saw when looking at their personnel, they are not very good at making plays without fouling. An aggressive SEC team that gets big guards going downhill is a very rough matchup for them. The Hogs should be able to avoid turnovers, get to the rim, and draw fouls.
Fouls mean free throws without having to actually make a shot, but more importantly, they put UConn’s key players at risk. A foulfest at the rim means that Arkansas will mostly be risking guys who are fairly replaceable (Kamani Johnson and the Mitchell twins come to mind), while UConn will be risking Sanogo and Clingan. If Kamani fouls out in eight minutes but draws two on Sanogo, it was worth it.
Arkansas-Kansas combined for 48 personal fouls. If this game reaches a combined 48+ fouls, Arkansas’ chances of winning are excellent.
Keys to the Game
- Rockfight, again. This worked as the lone key for the Kansas game, so here we are again. Most of the Kansas gameplan will work here too: smother the perimeter, rebound well defensively, attack the rim, and draw fouls. Holding up on the defensive boards takes on a bigger emphasis, and not turning the ball over against this defense is also pretty important.
- Nick Smith’s shining moment. I like the way that Doc Harper described Nick Smith, noting that Arkansas “is closer to winning more in spite of him than because of him,” and that has to eat him up because he is a competitor who fought hard to return to the lineup even though he did not have to for his NBA draft stock. Arkansas is not going to be able to count on Devo for 25 a night and stay alive in this tournament, and somebody has to help take the load off Council. The Hogs have gone about as far as they can without Smith, now they need him to look like a lottery pick.
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