Arkansas’ “real season” begins Saturday night against BYU. The Cougars are now Power Five, having joined the Big 12 conference in the off-season. The Hogs romped 52-35 in their best offensive performance of the Sam Pittman and Kendal Briles era last season, but both teams look very different headed into this year’s game.
This is the last game that we’ll have this shortened “what to watch for” preview. Full advanced stats will begin next week. But for now, we’ll just glance at them, as the sample size is still a bit too small.
Can Arkansas actually be pass-first with KJ Jefferson?
The biggest offensive concern through two games with the Hogs is the rushing attack. After leading the SEC in explosive run rate in both 2021 and 2022, the Hogs have slipped to 128th nationally – and last in the SEC – in that stat so far this year. Dan Enos’s offense is simply not built to generate explosive runs like Kendal Briles’s was.
What has improved, however, is the efficiency. Arkansas currently sits at 9th nationally in rushing success rate. And stuffed runs (runs for zero yards or a loss) were a huge problem last year, but that’s vanished so far: from 104th in 2022 to 13th this year.
The problem with such a plodding run game, however, is that it is unlikely to carry you to any big victories, especially big upsets. At best, it’s going to be a nice complement that sets up the passing game for success and helps win field position.
BYU’s defense has been excellent against the run so far. The sample size is impossibly small (just the 14-0 win over Sam Houston, who managed just three points in a loss to Air Force in Week 2), but the Cougars will start a pair of 300-pound defensive tackles, so they won’t be overwhelmed by size alone.
If Arkansas struggles to run the ball, Enos’s offensive philosophy says the effort required for the defense to stop the power run game will leave them vulnerable to the pass. Enos had no issue letting Brandon Allen throw, for example, 45 times in the 2015 Ole Miss game. We haven’t really seen Jefferson take over a game on throwing alone. Most of his highest-volume passing efforts came in games where the rushing attack was also working (2021 Ole Miss, 2022 BYU), and thus it was more of a general shootout. In that 2015 Ole Miss game, Hog running backs combined for 32 carries for 157 yards (4.9 per rush). Can Jefferson throw for 300 in a close game where his top two backs do something like that? BYU might be the first test of that.
Is Arkansas’ defense for real?
The Razorback defense has allowed just 19 points all season; again, against weak competition. Their stat profile is exactly what you’d expect for a team running the 4-3 Under style that Travis Williams and Marcus Woodson brought to Fayetteville: they’ve been dominant against the run, they create a ton of negative plays, and they stiffen in the red zone. Their main vulnerability is that they are susceptible to big plays in the passing game if the pass-rush gets picked up well.
BYU lost star QB Jaren Hall and his top two receivers, but they landed USC-to-Pitt transfer Kedon Slovis to run the offense. However, the loss of those receivers, namely Puka Nacua, who torched the Hogs last year (8 catches, 141 yards), may be an issue. BYU failed to complete a single pass of 20+ yards against Sam Houston, and they currently sit at 91st in EPA per Pass. In the Week 2 win over Southern Utah, they recorded 345 passing yards, but combined for just 50 rushing yards on 22 carries.
It’s hard to see BYU getting much on the ground against the Hogs, so it will all come down to Slovis and his receivers against the Arkansas pass defense. The Cougars aren’t allowing many sacks and are giving Slovis time, but can BYU’s new receiving corps find openings against the Arkansas secondary?
Who makes a big mistake first?
BYU has just one turnover this season, and Arkansas has zero. The Hogs have also been almost perfect on special teams, averaging 47 net yards per punt. Both of these teams are built to make very few mistakes, so the winner may be the one who makes the fewest.
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