Box Score Breakdown: Mississippi State 7, Arkansas 3

Box Score Breakdown: Mississippi State 7, Arkansas 3

Adam Ford

We have to start with the obvious: Arkansas has parted ways with Dan Enos following this abomination.

The hostility here is palpable. He’s “Coach Pittman”, but he’s just “Dan Enos”. Effective immediately. The statement at the link includes no quotes from Pittman thanking Enos for his services or anything like that. Just a simple notice that the offensive coordinator is out after eight games.

The first implication is a big one: Pittman is probably not focusing on retirement in Lake Hamilton right now. If he were prepared to hang it up after this year, he probably doesn’t make this move. This is the move of a head coach who’s fighting to keep his job and fix this mess.

The argument in favor of keeping Pittman is strong: he’s nailed three of his four coordinator hires, Arkansas’ recruiting class for the upcoming year ranks 22nd, the Hogs total 247 Composite Talent ranking is set to crack the top-30 next year, and the Hogs have a strong defense. Because of this, I tend to agree with this quip, from college football analytics nerd Parker Fleming (one of many who was skeptical of the Enos hire to being with):

The decision for Hunter Yurachek will come down to whether or not completely replacing the whole staff and paying buyouts is a better option that simply helping Pittman secure a better offensive coordinator. To do that, Yurachek is going to need to put out feelers to big names like Lance Leipold and Mike Elko to see if a clear upgrade to Pittman is interested. He’ll also need to hear from Pittman what went wrong with the Enos hire and how he intends to correct it with the next hire. Unless the Hogs let go of the rope (lose to FIU, 30-point loss to Mizzou, etc), my realistic guess is that simply finding a better OC is going to be the best option.

Meanwhile, Kenny Guiton is the interim offensive coordinator. He’s never called plays, but he worked at multiple stops under Tom Herman and also coached two seasons in Fayetteville under Kendal Briles. He’s got an open date, but there’s not time to install a totally new offense (or even re-install the Briles offense), so he’s going to have to adapt from what the Hogs already know. I expect Arkansas will be much more spread, much more aggressive, and much more vertical. We’ll discuss some specific things that need to change in a post this week.

Advanced Stats

No chance I’m spending long on this abomination. Just look at it.

The noise-adjusted final score is a shootout: Mississippi State 12, Arkansas 8.

The final drive that ended with a Hail Mary is somehow left out of the data, so the Hogs end up with 170 yards and 2.8 yards per play in my data. The actual numbers were a robust (sarcasm) 200 yards and 2.9 yards per play.

Anyway, just two Hog drives got a first down inside the State 40, and one of them started there thanks to a pick. The other was mismanaged into a punt by Sam Pittman. Arkansas gained just 19% of available yards.

State wasn’t really any better. The only real difference is that they got a touchdown on their one red zone drive while Arkansas got only a field goal.

TWO PERCENT EXPLOSIVE PLAY RATE. Two percent. That’s a 2. That’s actually a round-up: it’s 1.6%. That happens to be the fourth-lowest explosive play rate by an FBS team this season, in 970 games. Only Navy against Air Force, Sam Houston against Air Force, and Northern Illinois against Nebraska were worse.

I was going to do more, but there’s no point. That’s miserable.

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