After eight games, Arkansas has a new offensive coordinator. Dan Enos will be paid about $3.8 million for eight games and an offense ranked at the bottom of the SEC.
A lot went wrong in the Enos era. Based on our own observation and Sam Pittman’s Monday press conference, here were the biggest factors:
- Enos never got team buy-in. Pittman mentioned that coaches have to “bring the energy”, implying that Enos didn’t. Enos is far from an up-and-comer, and he’s already served as an FBS head coach (it didn’t go well). It’s not hard to imagine that he’s lost some of the energy and drive of a younger coach. He never really connected with the team, and they didn’t really trust him.
- The playbook was too big. This would have been a shock to the returning Hogs, given that Kendal Briles’s offense is so simple that he’s been criticized in the past for not even creating a physical playbook. As a pro-style coach, Enos has a voluminous playbook that incorporates elements of several offensive schemes that he’s coordinated. We’ve mentioned it before on this site, but Enos has really struggled to transition to the Spread Coast offense he picked up in his one year at Alabama. Perhaps his playbook got too large and complicated right around that time. Pittman mentioned “volume” repeatedly (in a negative way) and noted that Arkansas practiced several ideas that never made it into games (like rolling the pocket), while both Pittman and Jefferson appeared to imply that Enos called several plays in-game that had barely been practiced. That impacts both buy-in and quality of execution. Related to that is Enos’s tendency to stray from what worked; another side effect of a playbook that’s too large. The Hogs were in rhythm early on against Texas A&M, Ole Miss, and Alabama, but then they changed up their playcalls and got out of whack.
- There wasn’t enough tempo. This one is on Pittman, who hired a slow-tempo guy to replace an up-tempo guy. But Arkansas’ use of selective tempo (called “gas plays” in the Briles scheme) was a major weapon over the last three seasons, and the Hogs cut it completely under Enos. Both Pittman and Jefferson mentioned that the offense is going to go much faster, so that was obviously an issue. The Hogs actually went up-tempo for a couple snaps early in the Mississippi State game, so it’s fair to assume that Pittman had already asked Enos to try to incorporate tempo… but that got abandoned after the first quarter, like so many other things that were working on offense.
I laid out my concerns with Enos before the season: his offenses aren’t explosive enough, turning Jefferson into a pro-style passer might not work, and the run scheme might expose Arkansas’ running backs as overrated. I definitely don’t bat 1.000 in my predictions all the time, but all three of those turned out to be entirely justified concerns on top of the ones listed above.
While the scheme has its shortcomings, it ultimately wasn’t the problem. In fact, as coordinators both influenced by the Kiffin/Alabama Spread Coast offense, Enos and Briles aren’t really that different in terms of basic play design. We saw (mostly) the same run concepts and the same use of RPOs. The differences were more abstract: Briles aims for explosives while Enos aims for efficiency, Briles aims for tempo while Enos aims for control, Briles aims for simplicity while Enos aims for completeness. The playcalling itself wasn’t even a major problem. Enos has long been respected as a good playcaller and I think playcalling was a much, much smaller issue than basic execution. Arkansas just didn’t run the offense well, and it became obvious against State that the offensive players were letting go of the rope. They didn’t trust the playcalls coming in from the OC and were making mistake after mistake. So a change had to be made.
Enter Kenny Guiton
Receivers coach Kenny Guiton is now the interim offensive coordinator. He’ll move over to coach quarterbacks. Guiton played QB under HC Urban Meyer and OC Tom Herman at Ohio State, then got his coaching start as a GA and later quality control coach under Herman at Houston and then Texas. From there, he’s held a few jobs as a receivers coach, including under Briles at Houston in 2018. This is his third season in Fayetteville.
I like the decision to go with Guiton, since he’s very much an up-and-comer in the industry (he’s just 32 years old) who almost certainly has aspirations of being an offensive coordinator and eventually head coach. He isn’t just a fill-in hire. He wants the job permanently, so I expect him to work hard to make the offense better.
Let’s start with the obvious: Guiton is not going to completely transform Arkansas’ offense mid-season. Anyone hoping that the Hogs will try to re-install the Briles offense should give that up. Jefferson said Tuesday that the Hogs will cut down the playbook (simplicity) and play at a faster tempo. The plays Arkansas will run for the rest of the year are already in the playbook, and the terminology and basic coaching points on them won’t change much, if at all. Guiton and the staff will need to figure out what the team can execute, and cut anything they can’t out of the offense.
So what are some specific things that we want to see? Again, faster tempo and less volume have been noted, but here are some other things.
#1 – Crisper execution
Ultimately, Arkansas’ personnel issues cannot be fixed this year, but the Hogs are certainly better than they’ve looked. The offensive line is bad at dealing with twists and exotic pressures, but it’s actually pretty mediocre otherwise. I think it gets too much of the blame sometimes. Arkansas’ running backs have horrible vision so holes get wasted all the time. Check out this third-down run, where the hole is there but AJ Green just runs himself into the ground and comes up short (the next play was the failed sneak):
In the passing game, Jefferson has been less accurate this year, but the biggest issue is that Arkansas’ receivers are not good. This is easily the worst receiving corps in the SEC. That was a concern heading into last offseason when Matt Landers and Jadon Haselwood left, and the guys Arkansas got to replace them are not good at all. They are physical, rarely drop the ball, and can catch in traffic, but that’s such a low-margin way to move the ball. These guys get almost no separation, and they aren’t great downfield blockers to boot.
Recognizing those limitations is important – Pittman noted, for example, that he has a target of 8-10 pocket passes for Jefferson per game, as that’s all the line can protect – but the Hogs have to look a lot sharper as well.
Over at Power Hour SEC, CarterThePower has an excellent video up showing the bizarre and inexcusable execution mistakes that plagued the Hogs against State but have been evident all season.
In this example, I have no idea what Rashod Dubinion is doing (he’s supposed to be picking up the blitzer), and two receivers run into each other on their routes:
Check out the full video here (if you have the stomach for it):
If you want an optimistic case, while Arkansas can’t fix scheme issues in two weeks in-season, this kind of stuff can get fixed really quickly. Of course, Guiton, Jimmy Smith, Cody Kennedy, and Morgan Turner were all on the staff already and this stuff was happening, so it’s no guarantee that things will improve just because Enos is gone.
#2 – More spread
Enos drifted from the Briles base of 11p (3WR, 1TE, 1RB) and wider receiver splits in favor of tighter formations with more tight ends. The Hogs have used 12p (2TE) on about 20% of snaps this year, and receivers are often tight to the line. Arkansas’ overuse of tight formations and heavier personnel allowed opponents to bunch up in the middle, which is a major reason why the run game isn’t finding as much space. Football, as it turns out, is not much different than basketball: you’re better off spreading the defense out.
I like Ty Washington in the Trey Knox role, especially since he’s demonstrated he can split out to give a 4-wide look. And blocking specialists like Francis Sherman can still be used, but you can’t use many two-tight sets or overuse extra blockers. Defenses will just clog you up.
I do think Isaiah Sategna has to get more snaps, especially since I think you’ll see total wide receiver snaps go up due to more 3-wide (and possibly 4-wide) sets. Sategna has game-breaking speed that complements the more physical/possession style of Tyrone Broden and Isaac TeSlaa well.
#3 – More shots, fewer screens
This is a tough one to make happen, given that Arkansas’ receivers aren’t very good at getting separation. The Hogs called some deep passes against Mississippi State, but as has been the case all year, the State defense made heavy use of 2-deep Quarters looks to take away the deep ball. That’s now the norm across college in the NFL. The standard way to punish 2-deep looks is to run the ball, since the defense can’t stack the box. However, Arkansas’ run game hasn’t presented enough of a threat to force that. If they can’t get opponents out of 2-deep, it’s going to be hard to attack deep.
Still, I want to see fewer screens and more shot plays, especially single-read shots like Kendal Briles ran a ton of, as those make for easier reads for Jefferson. Per SEC Stat Cat, Jefferson ranked as the SEC’s most accurate deep passer in 2021 and was third in 2022. But his ADOT (average depth of target) has fallen this year under Enos, who preferred screens and spacing concepts. Those… have not worked at all. It’s shocking how bad they’ve been.
Arkansas’ second play from scrimmage this year was an RPO Bubble that Jaedon Wilson took for a 65-yard touchdown. Since then, here’s Arkansas’ short passing and screen game:
Arkansas is a poor screen team largely because they signed a bunch of big possession receivers who are not good at breaking tackles in space. They do not have the personnel to do this. I get that Enos had to work with what he had, but screens to TeSlaa are not going to go anywhere. Why did Arkansas have to throw 46 screens in eight games for us to figure that out?
In 2021 and 2022, in addition to his strong deep passing accuracy, Jefferson ranked near the top of the SEC in first down plus touchdown rate (1D+TD%), which is the percentage of his pass attempts that result in a first down or a touchdown. This year, he’s 13th, ahead of only Auburn’s Payton Thorne. Briles had Jefferson rarely throw short of the sticks on dropbacks; Enos had them throw short of the sticks almost exclusively. That’s yet another of the shocking examples of how much Arkansas’ offense changed for the worse and Jefferson was made to be a quarterback that he isn’t. He’s not a short passer.
#4 – A run game identity
I’m not actually sure what direction the run game will take. Under Briles, the Hogs were about 70-30 zone-to-gap in their run game. Enos emphasized gap scheme runs more: it was about 50-50 over the first three games before moving back to favoring zone in SEC play. Some new adds by Enos like a Pin-and-Pull Base run had mixed results this year.
Here are the total run game numbers by type:
Now, it’s worth noting that Rocket Sanders has been out for most of the year, and Inside Zone was his best run. But gap-scheme runs are out-performing zone runs in both yards per rush and success rate. Based on his background, Pittman seems to prefer Inside Zone.
Overall, zone runs are easier for the line to block and easier for the quarterback to read (especially when paired with RPOs), but gap runs are easier for the back to execute (because the hole is pre-defined) and harder to defend generally (especially with RPOs). Guiton spent several seasons as an assistant to Tom Herman, who prefers a mix of Inside Zone and Inside Power, so I would imagine Arkansas continues to use both.
The Hogs run the ball too much on first downs, but they can’t really abandon the run altogether given that the personnel isn’t there to have a great short passing game. You can’t just throw bombs every paly (or can you?). They can help the run with more spread-out formations and better attention to detail in execution. Beyond that, there isn’t much more tinkering that can be done.
Can this move actually save Pittman’s job?
Pittman has offered Enos up as a (deserved) sacrifice and is making his case that he’s still the man for the job. If the Hogs continue to play hard and the offense shows even small improvement over the final four games, I think he’ll probably get another year to get the OC hire right. I think that 3-9 isn’t good enough, so the Hogs actually need to win one of Florida, Auburn, and Mizzou, and be competitive in the other two.
How likely is that? I’m not sure. If what Pittman said about the size of the playbook and the lack of buy-in is true, and/or Kenny Guiton is a prodigy who deserves to be a full-time offensive coordinator (somewhere, if not at Arkansas), then there’s a very good chance that Arkansas’ offensive performance improves significantly. If there’s something else – for example, Arkansas simply doesn’t have good enough players to beat even Mississippi State – then the offense probably won’t improve much, and Hunter Yurachek will have a tough decision to make at the end of the year.
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