Arkansas’ attempt to turn their season around brings them face-to-face with Auburn. The Tigers are 5-4 in Hugh Freeze’s debut season.
Meet the Tigers
Auburn has given Arkansas problems over the years. Houston Nutt was 5-5 against the Tigers during his tenure (1998-2007), then Bobby Petrino was 3-1 against them from 2008 to 2011, then Arkansas beat them under John L. Smith in 2012, giving them a 15-year record of 9-6. In many ways, Auburn and Mississippi State are the two divisional opponents that most highlight Arkansas’ fall ever since. The Razorbacks are just 2-8 against Auburn since 2012, with their second win coming last year.
Two bad offenses are facing two good defenses. The Tigers seemingly have the better defense, and both offenses are improving. Has Arkansas’ offense improved more since elevating Kenny Guiton to interim OC? That’s the question.
Model pick: Arkansas 21.8, Auburn 21.1. Arkansas leads the SEC in one-score games, and there’s good reason to believe that will continue.
When Auburn has the ball
Auburn finishes drives well and avoids turnovers, but that’s about it. The Auburn offense is basically a much worse version of Florida, unable to maintain good drives. They’ve been hounded by negative plays (124th), staying on-schedule (101st), and keeping drives alive when knocked off-schedule (125th). The obvious key to beating them is, like Florida, to limit explosive plays and make them sustain long drives.
Unlike Florida, Auburn will be more run-heavy in their approach. They lean on star back Jarquez Hunter, whose 748 scrimmage yards are almost double the second-place guy on the team (which is Payton Thorne, the next-most scrimmage yards from a skill position player are just 284 from receiver Jay Fair). Hunter is a tough runner who does much of his damage after contact. He ranked second among SEC starters in YAC per rush last year, and though he’s slipped a bit this year, he still sits at a solid 3.8 YAC per rush.
However, Hunter often doesn’t get great cushion, as Auburn’s line has had some run-blocking issues. In particular, they’ve been victimized by stuffed runs. Arkansas is pretty good at stuffing runs, so the Hogs have a chance to get Hugh Freeze back for that Liberty game a year ago. The Hogs have occasionally been vulnerable to big runs, but overall they’ve been very good at containing opposing run games.
So Auburn’s success will come down to Thorne, who has looked improved in recent weeks. Auburn spent much of this year rotating Thorne with dual-threat Robby Ashford, but it appears they are all-in on Thorne now. Thorne’s passer profile has some similarities to Graham Mertz: very conservative, with lots of short, safe throws where receivers are asked to break tackles after the catch.
Among the 14 SEC starters, Thorne ranks 13th in 1D+TD% (percent of throws that go for a first down or touchdown) and 9th in average depth of target, so Auburn consistently throws short of the sticks. This is explains why, like Florida, they tend to be very bad on passing downs, because they aren’t really built for third-and-long situations. And because they throw it less than Florida – and to worse receivers – their margin for error when throwing is much smaller.
One reason they throw it less is that sack rate. Thorne has taken 20 sacks (about 11% of his dropbacks, among the worst in the SEC). But unlike the occasional run game issues, this isn’t the line’s fault. Thorne is only pressured on about 18% of his dropbacks – among the lowest rate in the conference – but his problem is that too many of those pressures become sacks. He holds onto the ball too long and often runs himself into sacks.
When Arkansas has the ball
We mentioned when previewing Florida that Arkansas’ last three SEC opponents are the three worst defenses in the conference at allowing explosive plays. True to form, explosive plays ended up being a major key to Arkansas winning that game.
Now here’s another chance at a team vulnerable to explosive plays, except with Auburn, this is actually a good defense and explosive plays are their only weakness. Auburn’s defense, like its offense, is particularly good in the redzone and at turnovers. The Tigers tend to clamp down on offenses on early downs, especially when they try to throw.
Arkansas’ numbers are slowly improving. After ranking as low as 123rd in explosive play rate, the Hogs are up to 109th. The Hogs are best on passing downs, and for the whole season, they don’t do anything else well.
Here’s the winnable matchup. As much as Hog fans have complained about the offensive line… it hasn’t been that bad. The Hogs generally avoid negative runs and rank 29th in line yards. Their problem has been explosive runs. Some of that was a Dan Enos thing. Against Florida, Guiton went more zone-heavy, particularly going back to the Kendal Briles bread-and-butter outside zone, which created a few explosives for the Hogs. Other gap-scheme options that Enos had faded (Power Veer, Bash Read) were run against the Gators for explosives as well.
Auburn is ripe to be hurt on the ground. The Tigers are giving up way too many explosive runs, and unlike Freeze’s Liberty team last year that stymied Arkansas ground attack, this Auburn team is not elite at creating negative runs.
Auburn has a good secondary and a solid pass rush. KJ Jefferson has been sacked a ton, so that’s a concern. Per SEC StatCat, he’s only pressured on about 25% of his dropbacks – right in line with the SEC average – but Jefferson has been holding onto the ball too long (or routes take too long to develop), and many of the sacks have come on completely busted protections. The long-developing, pocket-passing plays have been significantly reduced, and Jefferson had limited issues with pressure against Florida. But Auburn’s pass-rush is much better, and it will be much more important for the Hogs to have success holding up in protection, attacking the edge, and rolling the pocket.
Keys to the Game
Contain the explosives. Auburn’s offense struggles to march down the field and depends on big plays, particularly in the run game. The Hogs need to limit the yards that Auburn gets from big plays.
Win the red zone. Auburn isn’t very good on a play-to-play basis, but the Tigers are very good at finishing their good drives and preventing opposing offenses from doing the same. The Hogs get held to way too many field goals in goal-to-go situations. They need to finish more drives with touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Hog defense has been great at forcing field goals when backed up; that needs to continue.
Big play Rocket. Auburn’s defense is extremely vulnerable to big plays on the ground, just like Florida’s. Ripping off some big runs is Arkansas’ best chance to consistently move the football.
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