After a 3-0 start, the Hogs are down to their final tune-up game before the Battle 4 Atlantis and the Duke game over the next two weeks.
Meet the Spartans
UNC Greensboro will be the strongest opponent Arkansas has faced so far. They’re consistently one of the better mid-major programs. Hog fans probably remember them pushing Arkansas in a 65-58 game last year, the game where Trevon Brazile tore his ACL. They went 14-4 in the SoCon but were upset in their conference tournament. On Tuesday, they pushed Vanderbilt but fell 74-70.
Our preview numbers now use normalized values instead of rankings, so Arkansas’ 92 overall grade means that their adjusted scoring margin is in the 92nd percentile of all 363 Division I teams. The sample size here is really small, so don’t read too deeply into these numbers.
Greensboro’s offense is off to a hot start, as they shot really well against NC A&T. Their defense offers some potential challenges to the Hogs (as we saw in last season’s matchup), so the Razorbacks will need to have good shot selection and make open shots in order to win.
UNCG isn’t going to roll over on the boards or in turnover margin, so Arkansas will probably have to out-shoot them (or out-free-throw them) in order to win.
Model pick: Arkansas 90, UNC Greensboro 73. UNCG allowing 78 and 74 points to inferior offenses leads the model to expect a higher-scoring game.
When UNCG has the rock
The good news of this game is that Arkansas’ biggest defensive weakness that has emerged this year – transition defense – is not going to be seriously threatened by the Spartans, who play at a below-average pace and have struggled to convert transition opportunities into points. Arkansas’ defense has been pretty strong in halfcourt so far, and that’s where the Spartans will have to attack.
Greensboro is a pure jump-shooting team. They don’t get to the rim at all, and they rarely get to the free throw line. Instead, they launch 3-pointers (and hit them at a good rate) and rarely turn the ball over.
Arkansas, meanwhile, is struggling to force turnovers so far this year. We sort of expected this. From our season preview:
Arkansas’ depth and overall roster flexibility is incredible, but can they consistently put five guys on the floor who can score and defend at the same time? That’s going to be the question.
If my theory that Arkansas’ staff thinks they can coach up defenders is correct, then Arkansas’ best hope for a great season is for Ellis and Battle to actually be competent defenders, even good ones.
…
So watch the defense of some of the newcomers. I’ll be anxious to get an early read on their numbers.
There have been growing pains for the defense. Khalif Battle still has not recorded a steal, block, or drawn charge this season. El Ellis has at least recorded some defensive stats (1.3 steals per 40), but he played a role in Arkansas’ poor perimeter defense against Old Dominion. The massive improvement of the Hogs’ offense has come at the expense of the defense. Again, the gamble that the staff took is that they can coach these guards into being good defenders. That may happen in time, and UNCG is going to test that.
The Langley brothers are the leaders for the Spartans. Keyshaun is the efficient scorer (27% usage, 50% eFG%, only 3% turnover rate), while Kobe is the distributor (15% usage, 10.1 assists per 40). Mikeal Brown-Jones, the 6’8 5, is one to watch: he’s averaging a crazy 13.9 rebounds per 40 minutes, including 5.2 offensive boards per 40. He’s a quick, finesse scorer around the rim. He’s not a post-up forward, so Brazile could defend him, but this could also be a good opportunity for Chandler Lawson and his length and athleticism.
When Arkansas has the rock
Arkansas will eventually want to get that transition offense kicked into gear, but for now, Greensboro’s porous halfcourt defense looks like a juicy target for a Razorback offense that has been excellent in the halfcourt.
Greensboro’s defense is a type of pack line, a matchup man defense built to take away dribble penetration and force opponents to win with good spacing and jump shooting. You can read a more detailed breakdown in last year’s UNC Greensboro preview, but this defense is built on the idea that one-pass-away defenders stand between their man and the ball…
…and “stunt” towards the ball when it is dribbled inside the arc:
The defense gets its name because its tight spacing often leads to four or five defenders all being crowded around the top of the key, hence “packed” in a line (you can see that in the top image and for a second near the start of the gif).
The pack line is a serious threat to Arkansas because it encourages reckless shot selection on offense as players often try to put their head down and drive in frustration. Getting to the rim is very difficult against a pack line. Beating it requires good spacing, disciplined passing, and the ability to hit open jump shots. Arkansas’ shot selection in this game was terrible last year, which is why the game was so close.
The Spartan defense isn’t off to a great start this year, though. As expected from a pack line, they are allowing a ton of 3-point attempts while doing a nice job of keeping opponents away from the rim. But they are not forcing any turnovers, and pack lines usually do a pretty good job of that (see Virginia, the best-known pack line team). They are also fouling too much, which is a sign that they are not rotating on defense very well.
Keys to the Game
Disciplined shot selection. Last year’s game was frustrating to watch because the Spartan defense kept collapsing on Arkansas guards trying to drive. The Hogs of a year ago knew they couldn’t hit 3-pointers, so they kept stubbornly trying to drive, paying no mind to offensive spacing. This time, the Hogs need to space the floor well, take shots when open, and not settle for low-value shots.
Make open 3-pointers. Arkansas is over 40% from beyond the arc through three games, but this opponent will test how fragile that percentage is, since Arkansas is going to have to hit shots to win. The Hogs need to find the hot shooter and knock down shots when left open. This might be a game where half of Arkansas’ field goal attempts are 3-pointers.
Defend and rebound. Against Old Dominion, the guards gambled for steals far too often, allowing open 3-point looks and ending up out of position to clear defensive boards. As Greensboro’s veteran guards aren’t likely to turn the ball over, the Hogs might be better served by staying in front of shooters and securing defensive boards. That might lead to a slower-paced game, but it will allow Arkansas to win with shooting, free throws, and rebounding.
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