Arkansas got back in the win column on Wednesday with a 91-84 win over Mizzou. It’s the second straight strong performance after a disastrous start to SEC play, and that coincides with Devo Davis and Trevon Brazile, who have been extremely disappointing this season, missing their second straight game together.
As we’ll see below, Arkansas played its seven best players against Mizzou and the team actually looked competent. I say competent because Mizzou is terrible; the Tigers are now 0-8 in the SEC. But Arkansas led 47-28 at halftime and the game was not nearly as close as the final score indicates. No one’s given up, and this was a game to build on.
Advanced Stats
This game was over at halftime and most of the green for Mizzou was thanks to the second half, when the Tigers tried to make things interesting but never got within 11 points.
Arkansas’ horrid transition defense bit it yet again, but the Hogs actually did some transition damage themselves and were much better in the halfcourt.
Arkansas created more shot opportunities by winning both rebounds and turnovers, but the biggest stat here was 52% of FGAs being dunks, layups, or tip-ins. The Hogs only attempted 3-pointers when wide open, and the result was 100% eFG% (4 of 6 on 3-pointers is the equivalent of going 6 of 6 on 2-pointers).
What jumps out to me is the individual stats:
It’s crazy what happens when you actually play your best players. The top seven players by minutes in this game (Mark through Battle) happen to be Arkansas’ best seven players this season, by xRAPM.
Here are the Hogs’ best overall players by net points contributed per 100 possessions:
- Tramon Mark +6.8
- Jalen Graham +5.8
- Khalif Battle +2.7
- Chandler Lawson +2.3
- Layden Blocker +1.8
- Makhi Mitchell +1.6
- Keyon Menifield +0.2
Everyone else is negative. Davenport, who ranks 11th in xRAPM, mostly played because Battle got hurt and then Graham fouled out.
Speaking of Graham, he’s the clear-cut second-best player. Where did that come from? Well, Graham does some nice things offensively. He’s high-usage (24%) but still shoots well (58% eFG%, 2nd on the team), avoids turnovers (11%, 3rd), and grabs offensive boards (3.8 per 40, 1st). His only real weakness on offense is his horrid free throw shooting, which causes his true shooting percentage to plunge to 57%… which is actually still 5th-best on the team. Thankfully, Graham doesn’t focus on drawing contact so he doesn’t spend a lot of time at the line.
Believe it or not, though, offense isn’t why Graham is graded so well. His xORAPM of +1.4 offensive points produced per 100 possessions is third-best on the team, between Menifield and Battle but way behind Mark. But defensively, he’s actually Arkansas’ best defender, and by a decent margin, at +4.4 defensive points produced per 100 possessions. The numbers here are pretty definitive: his on-floor team defensive efficiency of 96.3 is easily the best on the team (no other Hog is under 100). But his individual stats back up his playmaking as well: his 4.5 blocks plus steals per 40 minutes are tops on the team, and he’s decent at doing it without fouling, generating 0.79 blocks or steals per personal foul (3rd).
I think the biggest note of all on the Arkansas frontcourt has to focus on how much better it’s been since Brazile exited the rotation. Makhi has had his two best games of the season in Brazile’s absence, and he’s rebounded really well in every game since Brazile was hurt. And now Graham joined the party against Mizzou, posting his second-best game score of the year. As a team, Arkansas has rebounded much better since Brazile got hurt, an unsurprising fact that we discussed after the Kentucky game. I’m going to run some lineup numbers for a future post, but I suspect that Makhi and Graham are much better when not sharing the floor with Brazile, and I’m curious to see if they’ve been really good together this year. They certainly were against Mizzou. When Brazile comes back, I’m not sure what role he will have. His ceiling is high enough to justify playing him some, but a Makhi-Graham or even Makhi-Lawson and Graham-Lawson frontcourt has just been better this year.
As for point guard, with El Ellis relegated to the bench and Devo Davis still away from the team, Keyon Menifield looked awesome running the offense. I think there will still be ups and downs, and Mizzou is really bad, but there’s optimism from Menifield’s performance. Blocker was also good with effort and energy, but he’ll need to cut down on turnovers if he wants to still handle the ball.
Up Next
The remaining schedule is manageable. The Hogs are at LSU on Saturday, and that’s an absolute must-win for any microscopic at-large hopes to stay alive. After that, Georgia at home is winnable, and home games against Vanderbilt and Mizzou later in the month should be victories as well. That’s not enough even for the NIT, but let’s take it one game at a time, shall we?
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