Wins are pretty by virtue of being wins, and Arkansas is 1-0 in SEC play after a 24-14 road win over Auburn. The Hogs did not throw the ball well at all, and didn’t run it well for much of the game, but the defense was fantastic, forcing five turnovers.
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This is an interesting departure from Bill Connelly’s model giving Arkansas only a 7% postgame win expectancy:
I don’t know Bill’s methodology. Obviously, Arkansas needed a bit of luck to get to 24 points. First, they benefitted from five turnovers by the Tigers. Second, their three touchdowns drives included nine third down conversions, seven of which were 3rd-and-10+ conversions. And third, one of their touchdowns was a 58-yard Hail Mary. All of those are fairly unsustainable ways to win, even if they worked Saturday.
However, the Hogs also had three turnovers in plus territory (two interceptions and one on downs) and missed a field goal. So they definitely left some points on the table. I know that Bill’s model uses success rate as a factor in postgame win expectancy. Our model does not, although it does indirectly by punishing teams that have to convert a bunch of 3rd-and-longs because they fell behind the chains like Arkansas in this game.
Anyway. As Andrew Hutchinson notes, the Hogs have seen wild swings go both ways this season:
I mentioned after the Oklahoma State that sometimes you’re the 17% and sometimes you’re the 83%… and this time, the pendulum swung the Hogs’ way.
Both teams tried to give this game away by turning it over and doing terribly in the scoring zone, but Auburn succeeded in doing worse. Five Auburn drives got a first down inside the Arkansas 40: they got one touchdown, and had a fumble and two interceptions, and then ran out of time at the end. The Tigers had five turnovers.
A big factor in this game was time of possession. Yes, that sounds like Bret Bielema to say that, but the Hogs simply kept their drives alive longer, averaging almost 1.6 more plays per drive than the Tigers. They didn’t really go any further, but it allowed the Hogs to have control of a chaotic game. Auburn’s offense had just one possession all game in which the Tigers were not trailing: the opening drive. After that, Auburn was just playing to tie, not take the lead, on every possession. While the Hogs didn’t actually put them away until the very end, I think that helped the Razorbacks stay composed.
The Hogs weren’t great either, with two interceptions, a failed fourth down at midfield, and a missed field goal. Arkansas also allowed a horrific 16 havoc plays. That’s not great with Texas A&M next week: their defense is among the nation’s best at creating havoc. (Reminder: havoc plays are stuffed runs, sacks, pass breakups, forced fumbles, and interceptions.)
Both teams were awful on early downs, but Auburn just couldn’t stay out of passing situations. They had way too many first down incomplete passes. Auburn’s higher success rate on passing downs is a bit misleading since Arkansas got way more value on passing downs. Auburn was better on second-and-long but Arkansas won third-and-long.
Auburn’s run defense hadn’t been great all year, so it’s not ideal to see the Hogs struggle. They managed just 40% success, just 13% explosive, and only 2.20 line yards per rush. Auburn’s success on the ground came outside the tackles, but their bigger issue is that they never committed to the run. They continued to go back to unreliable quarterbacks.
Arkansas is going to have to throw the ball much better if they want to win more SEC games. This was very unimpressive. We’ll leave it at that for now.
Highlights
Up next
The Hogs have a big showdown with Texas A&M on Saturday in Arlington. The Aggies are also 3-1 (1-0) after an ugly 26-20 win over Bowling Green. Expect a close game, as matchups in this rivalry usually are.
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