Arkansas is back at home on Saturday with a chance to secure bowl eligibility against Ole Miss. With an open week next week and then Texas coming to town, a win would go a long way towards building momentum for the November run.
Meet the Rebels
Ole Miss entered this year with a ton of hype after an 11-2 breakthrough season. Key players returned all over the field, and the Rebels used an influx of NIL money to go on a spending spree to shore up the defense. (In a total coincidence, then-Razorback linebacker Chris “Pooh” Paul suddenly transferred to Ole Miss.)
The Rebels blitzed through a hilariously-weak non-conference schedule, but reality hit the second SEC play started. Ole Miss lost 20-17 at home to Kentucky, a team that now sits at 3-5. Their two SEC wins are over teams with a combined SEC record of 3-7.
There’s still a chance that Ole Miss could live up to the hype and make the playoff, but they’ll have to win out to do so. The game next week against Georgia in Oxford is key, so Hog fans would love if the Rebels were thinking ahead to that one.
When Ole Miss has the ball
The Rebels ran up their stats during their non-conference games, but overall I’d say the offense has been a mild disappointment. Despite the hype, they’ve yet to score 30 points in an SEC game.
Lane Kiffin’s teams usually want to run the ball, but this team isn’t great it (38th in EPA per Rush), so they are fairly pass-heavy (75th in Adjusted Run Rate). And if you have a veteran quarterback like Jaxson Dart, why not throw it?
Early downs are the specialty of this Ole Miss offense. They generate explosive plays (4th), stay on-schedule (21st in Leverage Rate), and move the chains before reaching third down (14th in Early Conversion %). They also don’t turn it over (25th) and finish their good drives with points (12th). Your best bet to stop them is to get them into third down, where they aren’t as great (44th).
Explosive plays will be key. The Kiffin offense is built to create explosives, but Ole Miss has had a tough time generating them in SEC play. From non-conference to SEC play, their rate of explosive plays has dropped by 36%, with the run game bearing most of the decline.
Pro Football Focus stats paint a bleak picture of the decline. After collecting more than 200 yards before contact in non-conference play, top back Henry Parrish Jr. has about 50 in SEC play, including a net of zero last Saturday against Ole Miss. He finished the game with 15 carries for 44 yards, but all 44 net yards came after contact with a defender.
Parrish is pretty solid at generating yards after contact, but his run cushion has vanished. Arkansas will likely follow the lead of other SEC teams and present Ole Miss with a light box, daring them to run. As they did against Tennessee, the Hogs may add defenders to the box at the last second that the Rebels can’t account for. That worked like a charm against the Vols, but Kiffin is a bit harder to fool, and his quarterback is more experienced and may check out of bad plays.
The Ole Miss pass game is a team strength. Dart rarely turns it over and is very efficient through the air. Watch for top receiver Tre Harris, who leads the SEC in receiving yards. He missed the Oklahoma game with an injury sustained against LSU the week before, and has been listed as “questionable” for Saturday. If he can’t go, that’s a huge break for the Razorback defense.
Sacks could be a concern for the Rebels. Dart isn’t pressured at a high rate, largely because the ball comes out of his hand very quickly, but he lacks escapability. Per SEC Stat Cat, about 35% of pressures against him become sacks (compared to 21% for Taylen Green, who is one of the best in conference at that stat). Dart has also not been great while throwing under pressure. PFF recorded LSU with 21 pressures and six sacks against Dart in the Tigers’ big win in Baton Rouge.
Despite this, the Hogs should probably not blitz too often. Dart is a veteran and he’s been very good against the blitz: 55 of 79 for 1,123 yards (14.1 yards per attempt) with six touchdowns and only one interception, per PFF. So the Hogs really need the front to get pressure.
As we’ve seen against the other veer-and-shoot offenses on the schedule (Tennessee and Mississippi State), expect the Hogs to use their Dime defense again. The extra defensive back can help take away the deep throws and force the Rebels to sustain long drives that include multiple third down conversions. That’s not their strength.
When Arkansas has the ball
Ole Miss’s offseason spending spree is paying off, and the Rebels are very good on defense.
Like the offense, the Rebel defense is especially good on early downs. They knock you off schedule (5th in Leverage Rate), don’t give up much value on early downs (9th in Standard Downs EPA per Play), and create a lot of third downs (22nd in Early Conversion %). They create a decent number of negative plays (23rd in Havoc Rate).
They are beatable if you can win third down, where they rank just 35th. They also don’t force a ton of turnovers (45th). They don’t have many other obvious weaknesses.
They are so good on early downs because their run defense is elite, and that would be largely because of Pooh Paul, who is PFF’s highest-graded SEC linebacker, both overall and in run defense.
Unlike Texas A&M and Tennessee, the Rebels don’t blow up a lot of runs in backfield (35th in Stuff Rate), but instead its the linebackers that keep most runs under four yards. That makes it hard for the offense to rely on the run game, as most runs are unsuccessful (4th in Rushing Success Rate).
Arkansas got the run game back on track against hapless Mississippi State, but Ja’Quinden Jackson is out for the second straight game, so true freshman Braylen Russell is going to have to run over some people. He’s not going to get much of a cushion, but if he can bust some big runs and not go backwards, that might all the Hogs need from the rushing attack.
The pass rush is the biggest threat here. Per PFF, Ole Miss leads the SEC and is second nationally in pressure rate. Five different players have at least 24 pressures this year; no other SEC team has more than two players with that many. If the Hogs cannot protect their quarterback, they will be in for a long day.
The good news is that if Green gets enough time to throw, the Ole Miss secondary is far from elite. The Rebel safeties, nickel, and second cornerback are all relative weaknesses in coverage.
Expect the Hogs to come out throwing, as no one has been able to consistently run the ball on Ole Miss. If the line can protect Green, it’s easy to like the Hogs’ odds of moving the ball consistently. Of course, then they have to finish drives, something they haven’t done well.
Keys to the game
There are a ton of parallels to the Tennessee game. You’ve got an opponent with a hyped-up offense that has actually disappointed in conference play, while the defense has been dominant, especially against the run.
Expect the formula to be similar. The defense will likely use some Dime looks, focusing on preventing deep passes and forcing Ole Miss to be run-heavy. Arkansas’ best bet is a relatively low-scoring game, as it is hard to see the Hogs keeping up in a shootout against the Rebel run defense and pass rush. That said, this rivalry has produced some absolutely bizarre games over the years, so a wild one isn’t out of the question.
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