After the Tennessee win, Arkansas fans were hoping that bowl eligibility didn’t come down to this game, the second-to-last of the season. Unfortunately, the Hogs failed to significantly build on that win and enter their 11th game with a 5-5 record.
The chatter in the coaching industry is that barring a loss on Saturday, Sam Pittman has saved his job and will return in 2025. A dominant win here and then an upset victory over Missouri (very doable) would help make the narrative much more positive, but limping into 2025 after a 6-6 season would be the definition of doing the bare minimum.
Either way, Arkansas has no business losing this game. Louisiana Tech is not good at all.
Meet the Bulldogs
This is not the resume of a team that should scare Arkansas, but note that Louisiana is a few plays way from being 7-3 or better. They’ve lost three overtime games and two other one-possession games, so that 30-20 loss at NC State is their only loss by more than a touchdown. This team is very difficult to blow out.
If those final scores didn’t jump out, maybe the EPA+ per Drive numbers do. Louisiana Tech boasts a strong defense and a pitiful offense. They have wins of 12-7 and 14-10 and losses of 9-3 and 17-10.
That said, the Hogs are basically the strongest offensive team the Bulldogs have faced (Jacksonville State, which scored 44 against Tech, is 29th compared to Arkansas’ 32nd) and basically the strongest defense they’ve faced as well (Sam Houston, who held them to 3 points, is 48th to Arkansas’ 57th).
I’ve written a lengthy analysis of this matchup over at Best of Arkansas Sports that incorporates more scouting, so be sure to check that out. This post will have more of the advanced stats.
When Louisiana Tech has the ball
The BOAS article contains more detail about Louisiana Tech’s catastrophic offensive situation, but the gist is this: head coach Sonny Cumbie, a former Air Raid offensive coordinator, has had a rough time getting anything going on offense in Ruston. He’s in his third season and they’ve gotten worse every year. He turned over play calling duties to an assistant back in October, but that hasn’t helped.
Tech does nothing well on offense other than some occasional third down success. They can’t run the ball (133rd), which means their early-down offense is screwed (124th in Standard Downs EPA per Play, 117th in Early Conversion Rate). They are neither efficient (128th) nor explosive (124th) and they allow negative plays at a high rate (103rd).
Arkansas’ early-season defensive success was fool’s gold. The Hogs are very good against teams that want to run the ball and very bad against teams that are willing to throw it. The Razorbacks don’t give up big plays (6th), stop the run (8th), and stand tall in the scoring zone (34th), but that’s about it. They can’t force negative plays (116th) or turnovers (108th), and teams can throw on them (100th).
Louisiana Tech is willing to throw… but there will be caveats.
The first caveat is that Tech should be completely one-dimensional in this game. They won’t be able to run the ball at all. No point in even looking at this further.
The pass game is more intriguing because Arkansas has been quite bad. Louisiana Tech quarterback Evan Bullock is a fine passer. He’s very safe: high completion rate (68%) on short, safe throws, and only two interceptions. He does not throw downfield much at all. This a potential issue for the Razorbacks, who struggled to stop UAB’s dink-and-dunk passing attack.
However, there’s a big difference between Bullock and UAB QB Jacob Zeno. Arkansas couldn’t consistently pressure Zeno or sack him when they did pressure him. That won’t be a problem with Bullock. Tech ranks 121st in Sack Rate Allowed, but the issue is more on Bullock than the line. The protection isn’t great: PFF charts Tech with a 32% pressure rate allowed, which is high for a quick-throw Air Raid team but not exceptionally high overall. However, Bullock takes a sack on more than one-third of pressures against him, which is insanely high. He might be the least mobile quarterback the Hogs have faced this year. Or at least, he has the worst combination of pocket presence and mobility, because he runs into sacks frequently.
Here, for example, the protection isn’t great but he doesn’t really make much of an effort to step up in the pocket or avoid the rusher:
Because of how easy it is to get Bullock on the ground, defenses are blitzing the Bulldogs like crazy. PFF records that more than 40% of Bullock’s dropbacks this season have been blitzed. That’s led to a few explosive passes (mostly after the catch when the defense leaves a 1-on-1), but it’s also led to a huge 14% sack rate on blitzed dropbacks.
Through the air, watch out for slot receiver Tru Edwards, who is a beast:
Edwards is definitely Tech’s best offensive player and their only real threat.
Arkansas’ strategy is pretty straightforward: take away the run and make Tech one-dimensional, then try to get pressure and avoid giving up big passes like the one above. Most Tech drives will peter out on their own that way. If a four-man rush isn’t cutting it, bringing the house will probably do the job, though that does expose you to the risk of a big pass play.
When Arkansas has the ball
Moving the ball will be interesting. Tech’s defense isn’t in the same league as the murder’s row of Texas A&M, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Texas, but it’s pretty feisty for a 4-6 non-power team.
The Bulldogs are very good on early downs (6th in Standard Downs EPA per Play, 28th in Early Conversion Rate) by being very good against the run (17th). They’ll be able to turn 1st-and-10s into 2nd-and-longs and then 3rd-and-mediums if you try to run the ball on them.
Arkansas’ offense under Bobby Petrino has steadily improved all season and how has good metrics overall. The Hogs give up way too many negative plays (113th) and turn it over like crazy (127th), but they are an elite offense otherwise. The Hogs are a top-10 team in terms of both efficiency and explosiveness… their only issue is that too many of their non-successful, non-explosive plays are turnovers or big losses.
Tech does not force many turnovers and will break on third down, so those are two things to watch. If the Hogs don’t turn it over and win on third down, they’ll score more than enough points to win.
Too many Arkansas runs go backward, but the ones that go forward are often very good. Louisiana Tech is decent across the board on these stats. They’ll force a few negative runs and generally limit big runs, but the Hogs should be able to run the ball a little bit. Overcommitting to the run is the only threat, although that hasn’t exactly been a problem with Petrino.
This one is the most important chart. Louisiana Tech’s secondary is no joke, but it’s beatable. And Taylen Green has proven that when he has time to throw, he can be very good. Tech isn’t getting a ton of pressure or sacks, so Green is going to have a chance to carve the Bulldogs up. If he has a good day through the air, I think Arkansas wins easily.
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