The Hogs would love to turn an SEC win into an SEC winning streak. Oklahoma provides the perfect opportunity to do just that.
The Sooners (14-4, 1-4 SEC) have been beaten up to start conference play and have some matchup weaknesses that the Razorbacks can exploit.
As we discussed in the Georgia recap, Arkansas got good spacing in their win on Wednesday, posting solid halfcourt efficiency numbers (that’s been a major weakness all year) thanks to the spacing creating offensive rebounding opportunities. The good news for Arkansas is that Oklahoma is even better matchup for the Hogs to use that strategy against.
The plan is there for the Hogs to win with a big offensive night… if they can keep the lid on Oklahoma’s dangerous shooters.
Meet the Sooners
Porter Moser is nothing if not consistent. He’s been a coaching a while: his first Division I head coaching job was at Arkansas-Little Rock in 2000. His breakthrough came a decade later at Loyola Chicago. His seventh Rambler team made a run to the Final Four in 2018, and four years later, Loyola made it back to the Sweet 16. Moser took the job in Norman after that.
Every Moser team is dangerous against non-conference opponents. Eric Musselman knows this well, as Moser’s Sooners handled the Hogs in two of their three head-to-head matchups, even though all three Razorback teams ended up being better. But when conference play rolls around, Moser’s teams struggle. Despite all his success at Loyola, he was just 89-89 in conference play, and for his career, he’s 157-196 in conference games.
Oklahoma has non-conference wins over Providence, Arizona, Louisville, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, and Michigan. That’s quite the resume! But they’ve gone splat to start SEC play, starting 0-4 before finally beating South Carolina last Saturday. They were off in the midweek.
Our model thinks the Sooners aren’t as good as their resume indicates, hence an overall ranking of just 58th despite a resume ranking 34th.
Model pick: Arkansas 78, Oklahoma 74. Not much betting advice here, as the latest line is Arkansas by 3.5 on ESPNBet.
When Oklahoma has the rock
It’s good-on-good when the Sooners are on offense, and take a look at that second-half matchup. Both teams are slow-starting on this side of the ball but they pick it up after halftime.
Oklahoma is balanced between transition and halfcourt production. They are capable of winning either way. Arkansas’ major issues this year have been slow defensive starts and not getting back on defense, leading to too many transition opportunities for opponents. Oklahoma could exploit the second of those.
It’s bombs-away when Oklahoma is on offense. The Sooners are an elite 3-point shooting team, with several guys capable of getting hot. They shoot well at all levels and also draw fouls. Arkansas gives up way too many open 3-point looks, and while they close out well, good shooting teams have punished them this year. That’s obviously a huge concern.
The good news for Arkansas is that Oklahoma doesn’t create a lot of shot chances. That’s been a theme with Moser’s teams: they are never good at offensive rebounding. But this team also turns it over a lot, which is more unusual. Oklahoma may get hot from the floor, but if they can’t create enough scoring chances, the Hogs may can keep the scoring down enough to have a chance.
Just four guys will do the majority of the work for Oklahoma on offense: guards Jeremiah Fears, Kobe Elvis, and Duke Miles, plus forward Jalon Moore. Everyone else is playing a limited supporting role to those four.
Fears, a 6’4 freshman, is a ton of fun. He dishes out 7.9 assists per 100 possessions and makes a living by getting to the free throw line. But the highs have been paired with lows: he turns it over on 20% of his possessions, which is high, and he’s shooting less than 30% from beyond the arc.
Elvis, a 6’1 Dayton transfer, is there to run the offense (7.4 assists per 100 possessions) and shoot 3-pointers (33 made 3-pointers, 36%). He’s a lot less turnover-prone than Fears but he’s only attempted 12 free throws all season.
And Miles is a 6’2 High Point transfer who is shooting 43% from beyond the arc. He’s the team’s top pure shooter.
Finally, there’s Moore, a 6’7 senior who averages 18.3 points per game and is the team’s highest-graded player by our metrics. He’s shooting 60% effective field goal percentage, averages 12.2 rebounds per 100 possessions, and only turns it over on 10% of his possessions. He does most of his work around the rim but about a quarter of his shots are 3-pointers.
The support cast for those four is led by veteran center Sam Godwin, a strong rebounder who is turnover-prone. And then there’s wing Brycen Goodine, a Khalif Battle-style 3-or-drive specialist who’s been charged with just four turnovers all year. Like Battle, Goodine has been all over the place: 34 points against Texas A&M, single digit scoring in the other four SEC games. The Hogs need to hope he doesn’t catch fire.
When Arkansas has the rock
The Sooner defense is good at keeping you out of transition, but opponents who are able to run are able to score. Arkansas likes to run and has finished well in transition, so that’s a play for them. Another play is to just be good in halfcourt. Arkansas had its best halfcourt performance of the season against a power conference foe on Wednesday against Georgia, so maybe the Hogs can get something going there.
Georgia’s 302nd-ranked defensive rebounding unit provided the matchup that Arkansas was able to exploit for 18 offensive rebounds. Now the Hogs draw the only SEC team that is even worse on the boards. Oklahoma has been destroyed on the glass this year: Texas A&M had 17 offensive boards, Alabama had 22.
Oklahoma’s defense smothers the perimeter and forces a few turnovers but does nothing else well. They’ve been battered around the rim and they’re more foul-prone than Georgia was.
What to watch for
Offensively, Arkansas can repeat its Georgia gameplan: space the Sooners out, shoot 3s when they are open, and use athleticism in space to win battles for offensive boards and draw contact. Everything sets up for that strategy to work again.
Defensively, the Hogs have a tougher task. They need to keep Sooner shooters from getting hot, which won’t be easy. Forcing turnovers and clearing rebounds will help keep Oklahoma from going on big runs.