Bracketology & Weekend Preview: March 4th

Bracketology & Weekend Preview: March 4th

Adam Ford

4 Mar, 2022

The end is here. The regular season ends this weekend for the power conferences, but first, we have a huge round of games that will determine SEC and NCAA Tournament seeding.

Weekend Preview

Here’s a quick look at the biggest games.

Friday

  • Northern Iowa vs. Illinois State, Noon, ESPN+. Remember that UNI team that gave the Hogs a scare in a 93-80 win back in November? Turns out the Panthers were actually pretty good! They won the Missouri Valley Conference 1-seed by beating Loyola Chicago and start their run in Arch Madness (that’s what they call the MVC tournament: it’s in St. Louis, get it?) today.

Saturday

  • Arkansas at Tennessee, 11 am, ESPN. This is by no means a must-win. But it would a fun win that would lock up the 2-seed for Arkansas for the second straight year. Check out our in-depth preview of the matchup (coming this afternoon) to get you ready.
  • Alabama at LSU, 11 am, CBS. This one is significant for seeding; in fact, it will impact who Arkansas plays in the quarterfinal regardless of what happens against Tennessee. I’ll get into that below.
  • South Carolina at Auburn, Noon, SEC Network. Here’s the last chance to stop Auburn from an outright SEC title. Mississippi State couldn’t finish the job on Wednesday so here we are. Auburn has been really good at home so don’t count on an upset.
  • Kentucky at Florida, 1 pm, CBS. Four big games by the end of lunchtime? Yep. This one is also significant for seeding, plus Florida has to win if they want to the Dance. Expect a desperate Gator team to put up a fight, but I’m not sure what Colin Castleton is going to do with Oscar Tshiebwe.
  • Little Rock at Troy, 2 pm, ESPN+. It’s Trojan-on-Trojan violence in the Sun Belt. Little Rock pulled off an upset on Thursday to keep their longshot season alive. They’ll be big underdogs in the Sun Belt quarterfinal against Troy.
  • Georgia at Missouri. 2:30 pm, SEC Network. Tom Crean is coaching what will definitely be his final regular-season game. Sad day. If Mizzou loses at home the same might could be said for Cuonzo Martin.
  • North Carolina at Duke, 5 pm, ESPN. People keep talking about this one for some reason. Something about a guy whose name I can’t pronounce?
  • Arkansas State vs. Georgia State, 5 pm, ESPN+. Desi Sills and the Red Wolves have had a nice season and could legitimately win the Sun Belt autobid. They’ll be underdogs in this one. Also: if he goes to the transfer portal, keep an eye on State star forward Norchad Ormier. He’s the mid-major version of Tshiebwe. He had 35 points and 13 rebounds in the first round, and he’s just a freshman.
  • Vanderbilt at Ole Miss, 5 pm, SEC Network. Cheer for Vandy! The Dores are just a couple spots away in the NET from becoming a Q2 loss for the Hogs instead of Q3. I don’t know if a win over a bad Ole Miss team would be enough to get them into the top-75, but I’m pulling for it anyway.
  • Mississippi State at Texas A&M, 7:30 pm, SEC Network. It’s a battle of the longest-shot bubble teams. Neither is really on the bubble, but a win here and a run all the way to the SEC title game would get the committee’s attention. Texas A&M just smoked Alabama in Tuscaloosa, so maybe they are preparing to end a somewhat disappointing season on a high note.

Sunday

  • Houston at Memphis, 11 am, CBS. There are a lot of angles here. Memphis is on the bubble but in the field according to most bracketologists. They really need this one, though. Houston has exactly zero Quad 1 wins. None. Zip. Zilch. And yes, most brackets have them seeded ahead of the Hogs. I don’t get it. If the lose this one they will almost certainly fall below Arkansas on everyone’s seed list. So for one day, I’ll give you permission to cheer for Penny Hardaway.
  • Lehigh at Colgate, 1 pm, CBS Network. Remember our friends the Raiders? They blitzed through the Patriot League again and start their journey back to the Dance as a 1-seed in their conference tournament.
  • MVC Championship, 1 pm, CBS. I’ll probably turn this one on if Northern Iowa makes it.
  • Sun Belt Semifinal, 5 pm & 7:30 pm, ESPN+. Again, if Arkansas State or Little Rock make the semis, I’ll root for them.

SEC Seeding Scenarios

Okay, let’s get complicated. Who are the Hogs going to play in Tampa?

First, let’s look at where things stand as of today:

  1. Auburn
  2. Arkansas
  3. Tennessee
  4. Kentucky
  5. Alabama
  6. Florida
  7. South Carolina
  8. LSU
  9. Texas A&M
  10. Mississippi State
  11. Vanderbilt
  12. Missouri
  13. Ole Miss
  14. Georgia

If the season ended today, Wednesday Night Sadness would feature Vandy-Georgia for the right to play Florida and Mizzou-Ole Miss for the right to play Alabama. LSU-A&M and Carolina-State would be the other second round games, with Arkansas awaiting the Carolina-State winner in the quarterfinal. That would be an ideal matchup, but everything is fluid at this point except for Georgia being the 14-seed.

Here’s how it breaks down for Arkansas:

  • If the Hogs beat Tennessee…
    • …and South Carolina beats Auburn, the Hogs are the 1-seed
    • …and Auburn beats South Carolina, the Hogs are the 2-seed
  • If the Hogs lose to Tennessee…
    • …and Florida beats Kentucky, the Hogs are the 3-seed
    • …and Kentucky beats Florida, the Hogs are the 4-seed

Those are the only possible scenarios and relevant games for Arkansas’ seeding.

Okay, so what about Arkansas’ quarterfinal opponent? Here’s a look at the race for the next seeds:

5-seed

Alabama has the edge here and locks this up with a win over LSU on Saturday. Simple enough. But if LSU beats Alabama, then all hell breaks loose. In that case, if either Florida or South Carolina can pull an upset (over Kentucky and Auburn), then that team will be the 5. If both lose, we’re staring down the barrel of a FIVE-WAY TIE with Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, LSU, and the State-A&M winner all at 9-9. If that happens — and I’m not sure about this — I think Alabama or LSU escapes from that, as both would have a 3-2 record against the other four teams in the logjam.

The 5-seed would first play the 12/13 winner on Thursday and then the 4-seed on Friday.

6-seed

If the five-way tie happens, I think LSU falls here. If Alabama beats LSU, then it will be Texas A&M (if they beat State) or South Carolina (if they don’t). But if South Carolina beats Auburn, then they get it no matter what A&M does.

7-10 Seeds

This probably ends up being LSU, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, and South Carolina, in some order. If all favorites win, I think LSU actually falls all the way to the 9-seed.

Bracketology

Joe Lunardi had Arkansas on the 4 line before the LSU game, and then moved them off of it Thursday night. I don’t even know anymore. Most bracketologists — plus our own model — now have the Hogs as a 4.

Here’s the latest seed list. All teams in order:

  • 1 seeds: Auburn Arizona Wisconsin Providence
  • 2 seeds: Kansas Baylor Duke Gonzaga
  • 3 seeds: Houston Kentucky Tennessee Colorado State
  • 4 seeds: Purdue Villanova Arkansas USC
  • 5 seeds: Saint Mary’s Murray State Davidson UCLA
  • 6 seeds: Texas Tech North Texas Boise State VCU
  • 7 seeds: Illinois Alabama UNC South Dakota St
  • 8 seeds: San Francisco San Diego State UConn Iona
  • 9 seeds: Texas TCU Wyoming Iowa
  • 10 seeds: SMU Michigan State Loyola-Chicago LSU
  • Bubble: Wake Forest New Mexico St Miami Ohio State Creighton Seton Hall Belmont St Bonaventure

Colorado State is still hilariously high but the mid-majors are starting to drop a little bit. I expect bigger drops during conference tournament week. Providence is still on dangerous ground: one loss and they likely fall all the way to the last 2-seed. Houston will also freefall if they lose to Memphis on Sunday.