Welcome to the second round in Tampa! Four games on tap today. Here are some quick previews.
Florida vs. Texas A&M
Vegas has Florida by 2.5, but the model pick is Florida 68, Texas A&M 67.
Florida has been the better team this season but Texas A&M has a higher average game score over their last 10 games, and especially over their last 4. The Aggies finished the season on a hot streak. Florida’s missed chances to make the NCAA Tournament, including that home loss to Arkansas, have to weighing heavily on the Gators. That momentum could be a factor.
Florida is a unique team. They have the 70th-ranked offense but they are remarkably consistent: they rarely perform significantly better or worse than their average. Against the Aggies, they should be able to get to the free throw line and crash the offensive glass. The Aggies’ fairly stout 2-point defense could cause some problems, and the Gators’ lack of 3-point shooting will limit their ability to punish A&M’s poor 3-point defense. The Aggies have been terrible against true centers this season, so that’s a problem against Colin Castleton… but on the flip side, the Aggies have been great against point guards, and shutting down Tyree Appleby has been a great way to stop Florida all year. Expect a solid game from Castleton, but if Appleby struggles, it could all be for naught.
A&M’s offense has played much better in recent games. The Aggies are clicking when they can slow the pace down, make 3-pointers, and get to the free throw line. There’s some friendliness in this matchup, as Florida’s defense doesn’t speed the offense up at all. The Gators’ 3-point defense isn’t great, either, ranking 165th. If A&M gets hot from downtown, I think the Aggies will take this one with ease. The Gators have struggled with power forwards this year, so I like Henry Coleman III to have a good game. He’s been awesome over the last few for Texas A&M.
The matchup plus momentum factor makes me lean Texas A&M. I think the Aggies have too many friendly matchups on offense here.
LSU vs. Missouri
Vegas is going with LSU by 11.5, and our model has it even uglier: LSU 73, Mizzou 56.
LSU is the much better team, ranking 15th in Adjusted Scoring Margin against Mizzou’s 242nd. There is basically nothing Mizzou is better at.
LSU’s offensive success is predicated entirely on getting the ball to Tari Eason and Darius Days. There’s some danger here, as Mizzou has been very good against ball-dominant forwards this year, but the other matchups are so unfriendly to Mizzou. The Tiger defense won’t be able to punish LSU for its turnover-heavy ways, as the Mizzou D doesn’t force many of their own.
On the other side, Mizzou is dependent on making shots and avoiding turnovers. They want a slow pace, which is too bad, because LSU will speed them up. The best thing going for Mizzou is that they have the same factor that helped them beat Ole Miss working for them: LSU is very bad at defending small forwards/combo guards, while Mizzou’s offense is built around them, with Kobe Brown and Ronnie DeGray III.
LSU’s the better team, but that last tidbit would give me pause before picking a blowout here.
South Carolina vs. Mississippi State
Vegas likes State by 4.5, and our model agrees: Mississippi State 71, South Carolina 67.
The Bulldog offense is run by Iverson Molinar, and should be able to get to the free throw line and crash the offensive boards. The key matchup on offense will be 2-point shooting: both the State offense and Carolina defense are good at it. State wins when they can get free throws and see their 3-pointers go in. That they should be able to get to the line is a good sign. Carolina’s defense struggling against point guards and combo guards is another good one, so expect a good game from Molinar and Andersson Garcia.
The Gamecocks aren’t great on offense, but they have Jermaine Couisnard. The Bulldog defense has been poor against point guards, so Couisnard could have a good game. Carolina wants to speed up the pace and make 2-point shots: Mississippi State’s defense won’t help on the pace part, but the Bulldogs rank just 203rd in 2-point defense.
This is probably the hardest matchup to pick. I am leaning towards Mississippi State. I also think it could end up as a high-scoring game with both Molinar and Couisnard playing well.
Alabama vs. Vanderbilt
The Tide are favored by 5.5, and our model is similar: Alabama 80, Vanderbilt 74.
Alabama’s better on the year, but these two are roughly equal over their last 10 games. The Tide should be able to get free throws and open shots at the rim, which is usually all they need to win. However, the Tide play best when the pace is slow, and Vanderbilt’s defense is one of the best in the country at speeding you up. Alabama’s offense is also sensitive to turnovers, and Vandy forces a lot of them.
On the other side, Vandy’s offense, triggered by Scotty Pippen Jr., is pretty consistent, with free throws as the only factor that impacts it game to game. The Commodores need free throws, and Alabama’s defense is 221st in free throw rate allowed. The Tide, however, have been decent against opposing point guards this year, so that’s a concern with Vandy so dependent on Pippen.
If Vandy can get to the free throw line, I think they have a good chance to pull an upset. However, their issues with 2-point defense mean I can’t pick them with much confidence.