For the second straight year, Arkansas’ season ends in the Elite Eight.

This game felt a lot like last year’s Baylor game that ended the season. Arkansas got absolutely everything out of its talent to get this far, but ran into a better team that had too much going for it. Duke ultimately proved to be a bad matchup for the Hogs’ defense, as their isolation-based offense was comfortable taking Razorback defenders to the hole while giving the Hogs limited chances to help.

Arkansas jumped to a 9-6 lead but Duke soon wrestled control and never gave it back. A back-breaking 8-0 run to close the half gave the Blue Devils a 45-33 halftime lead. Arkansas’ defense opened strong in the second half, closing the gap to 53-48 and forcing a Duke timeout with around 12 minutes left. Duke replied with a 10-0 run that effectively ended the game.

Jaylin Williams finished his NCAA Tournament run with four double-doubles, recording 19 points and 10 rebounds. JD Notae had 14 points and fouled out. Stanley Umude finished with 14 points, while Devo Davis had nine. The Hogs shot just 42 percent from the field and made all 11 free throw attempts. The 11 free throw attempts are the third-fewest of the season.

Duke’s super-balanced effort saw four starters score between 12 and 18 points. The Blue Devils shot 55 percent from the floor and made 16 of 18 free throws.

Instant Analysis

This was not a friendly matchup.

I mentioned several of the potential issues in the preview. Duke’s length was one, and center Mark Williams bothered Arkansas more than either Walker Kessler or Chet Holmgren. The Hogs simply couldn’t get good shots at the rim because of Williams. He’s quite a bit bulkier than either of those two, and it showed.

Another was that Duke can spread its offensive production around too much. This limited the impact of Hog stopper Au’Diese Toney. There was no obvious “shut down Nembhard and you shut down Gonzaga” play here. Duke got good games from all five starters. Duke’s isolation-heavy scheme limited Arkansas’ ability to offer help defense. As mentioned in the preview, Duke is 26th in the nation in shot share at the rim and 5th in shot % at the rim. Arkansas has been great at denying shots at the rim all season, but without a true rim protector (Williams taking charges doesn’t count), the Hogs came in just 202nd in shot % defense at the rim. The Hogs have to deny shots to win — not stop them when they are taken — and that’s just hard to do given the way Duke plays.

And yes, the officiating was blatantly pro-Duke. It’s hard as an official not to buy in to the Coach K hype, so I’m not sure what else was to be expected. Arkansas’ quickness really surprised Duke early in the game, as the Blue Devils turned it over on their first two possessions. That should have translated to some fouls on the other end as Arkansas was aggressive to the hoop and Duke defenders hand- and hip-checked to try and get into defensive position. But those early fouls weren’t called and by the time Duke adjusted, the chance for the Hogs to gain an advantage was gone. In the final ignominious officiating sequence, with the Hogs down 66-54, JD Notae was slapped across the face on a layup attempt with no call. Duke grabbed the rebound and drilled a transition 3 to make it 69-54. And that was it.

There’s zero point in arguing whether or not officiating “cost” you the game. No win or loss has a single cause. Duke was better and would win a majority of games that were officiated fairly. But this one wasn’t. So it’s okay to be mad about that. I’ll repeat what I said after the Texas A&M loss:

None of this suggests Arkansas had one “stolen” from them — I mean honestly, did you watch? When no one but Umude can hit a 3-pointer, when the Hogs are flinging passes into the stands, when Lykes has to play significant minutes but scores just one point while dribbling the ball all over the court, the officials aren’t going to rob you blind. But intelligent people are capable of holding multiple thoughts in their head at once, so “don’t complain about the officials, we played bad, end of story” isn’t good analysis.

The vibe after this game is much different, because while the Hogs clearly played terribly in that game, that wasn’t the case for this one…

No sense in being disappointed.

I’m seeing folks throw around Duke’s shooting stats as if Hog fans should be disappointed in the team’s performance. Could they have played better? Obviously. They always could play better (except in the two Mizzou games, that was perfection). But I just don’t get that being the big takeaway. This game felt like last year’s Baylor game. You had a more talented opponent, running a scheme that’s a tough matchup for you, gelling at the right time, and this time you also had them getting a friendly whistle. It is what it is.

Okay, fine, there’s one thing to be disappointed about.

Unfortunate end for Lykes

It’s a shame that Chris Lykes’ career ended like that. A late-season surge from Trey Wade means that Lykes probably ends up being the most disappointing of the four grad transfers that Eric Musselman and staff added in the offseason. The staff clearly hoped that Lykes could run point and relieve some of the pressure on Notae to do everything in the backcourt. But it didn’t work out. As I write this Lykes is tied for 6th on the team in Adjusted Plus-Minus and I’m honestly surprised he’s that high. His late-game free throws were clutch, but part of the big changes that Arkansas made to save their season included severely limiting Lykes’ minutes and role back in January.

We saw why at the end of the first half, in what I think was the dumbest play by a Hog all season. Against Mississippi State, Lykes took an inexplicable 3-point attempt with the Hogs up 58-54 and 25 seconds to play. If he misses, State has life. He didn’t, and everyone laughed about it, but then he went and did it in the Elite Eight. Arkansas was holding for the final shot when Lykes took a long jumper with 10 seconds left, giving Duke enough time to get the rebound and drill a 3-pointer at the buzzer. It was a stupid play that Arkansas could not afford to have. I don’t think Lykes played in the second half: if he did, it was at the very end of the game and I missed it. That’s an unfortunate way to go out.

The future is bright.

In many ways, this was a transition year. You had a huge in-state recruiting class (plus Justin Smith, forever king of the grad transfers) that got a 3-seed and snapped that Sweet 16 and Elite Eight streak last year. Now another huge recruiting class looms next season. This year was all about keeping the momentum going, using pieces that included role players from last year’s team plus some grad transfers. The momentum is definitely still going. The Hogs are now established among the SEC’s elite and the stage is set for a monster 2023 season. Buckle up. The Hogs are back.

Future posts will break down the Duke game (briefly) and then comprehensively recap the season. Stay tuned!