It’s the Game of the Year of the Week in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks’ ridiculously back-loaded SEC schedule has produced three amazing Saturday matchups in a row. The Hogs opted to white out Auburn and then red-out Tennessee. So what’s left? A blackout? Nope, guess again: a stripe-out! Kentucky may fancy itself Arkansas’ Super Bowl but the reality is this is Arkansas’ third straight Super Bowl. When every game is a Super Bowl, no game is a Super Bowl. It’s just life in the rejuvenated SEC.
Previewing Kentucky
Confused? Check out the advanced stats glossary to learn more about the stats cited here.
The sixth-ranked Wildcats (23-5, 12-3 SEC) are in sole possession of second place in the SEC, but a loss Saturday all-but-eliminates them from one-seed consideration since they lose a tiebreaker to first-place Auburn.
There’s still no clarity on whether injured Kentucky guards Sahvir Wheeler and TyTy Washington will play, but Calipari was not optimistic earlier this week. If both do not play, that changes the calculus of this game quite a bit, although the Cats are still loaded.
Quick primer on how to read this chart: Arkansas is the 29th-best team and has the 21st-best resume. Kentucky is the 4th-best team and has the 9th-best resume. The Wildcats are about 10.6 points better than Arkansas per 100 possessions…. but games aren’t 100 possessions and homecourt advantage is a thing. We use two different models here at Fayette Villains to pick the game:
- Matchup Model: Kentucky 74, Arkansas 71
- Traditional Model: Kentucky 77, Arkansas 70
The matchup model uses various season stats to assemble an entire predicted box score, while the traditional model uses the opponent-adjusted ratings above and then applies a momentum factor that weights recent performances.
Meet the Wildcats
Another big game, another scary big man. The Hogs let Walker Kessler and Colin Castleton put up monster numbers against them but escaped with wins anyway. Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe is even more of a stat-stuffer. His +11.4 BPM makes him the third-best player in the SEC behind LSU’s Tari Eason and Kessler.
Tshiebwe gets the rebound on 30% of missed shots while he’s on the floor, which is crazy considering there are nine other people out there to split the other 70%. If you miss a shot against Kentucky, there’s a 39% chance that Tshiebwe’s grabbing the defensive board.
If Washington and Wheeler don’t play, Kentucky’s ball movement and guard penetration drops off significantly, as does overall guard depth. Grady and Mintz are the main three-point shooters, so perimeter won’t fall apart.
If the Hogs can overcome the Tshiebwe assault, then Jacob Toppin becomes an X Factor. He’s been playing a bigger role in recent games and has the best offensive rating (130.7) on the team. He shoots a good percentage (all inside the arc), gets to the free throw line, crashes the offensive glass, and never turns it over. His defense is lacking, but he provides a major offensive boost and will be difficult for the Hogs to contain.
When Kentucky has the rock
Offense is Kentucky’s strength. They rank 4th in adjusted offensive efficiency. The main strength here is offensive rebounding (4th), which will test Arkansas’ top-20 defensive rebounding unit.
As you can see, the Cats don’t attempt a lot of 3-pointers (345th out of 357 teams in 3-point rate), but they usually hit them (25th in 3FG%). They also hit 2-pointers (38th), which will be interesting given that Arkansas has been very good on the defensive interior (28th in 2FG% defense). Pretty much the only thing Kentucky does not do well is draw fouls.
There are some ups and downs to this matchup. Arkansas’ defense typically performs well against offenses that try to get the ball inside and crash the offensive glass, but Arkansas’ defense also prefers offenses that play slow, while Kentucky moves quickly (67th in average possession length).
The Hogs haven’t given up more than 73 points in regulation in the last 13 games. If they can keep that up on Saturday, they have a good chance to get a win.
When Arkansas has the rock
The other side of the ball is actually less friendly to the Hogs. The main key for the Razorbacks is that Kentucky does not force many turnovers. This gets even more complicated when you consider that Wheeler and Washington rank 2nd and 3rd on the team in steal rate, so without them, Kentucky’s ability to force live-ball turnovers declines even further.
Outside of that, it’s hard to find many advantages. Arkansas’ offense does best when it speeds opponents up and gets to the free throw line. The first one is possible, but the second one will require either sloppy defensive play by the Cats or a little “homecourt advantage” from the officiating crew.
Keys to the Game
- Value every offensive possession. Kentucky doesn’t force many turnovers, so the Hogs’ best shot on offense is not give the Wildcats any gifts. Bad shot selection, offensive fouls, and bad passes are all things that just can’t happen if you want to win a big game.
- Get Kentucky’s guards out of sync. Key to the Auburn and Tennessee wins was forcing bad guard play. The Hogs have been so good at recovering when opponents try to reverse the ball, which takes away rhythm 3-pointers and dribble penetration. LSU waited too long to unleash a desperate press on the point-guard-less Wildcats on Wednesday; the Hogs need to make whoever is handling the rock very uncomfortable from the opening tip.
- Someone needs to get hot. Stanley Umude has weirdly been great away from Bud Walton Arena, but this would be a great game for him to get hot from outside the arc at home. If not Umude, then maybe Davonte Davis can chip in 15 points or more once again. Either way, the lack of help for JD Notae that we saw in the Auburn and Tennessee wins simply isn’t going to work on Saturday.
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