The Hogs are now on the brink after a 40-17 thrashing by Mississippi State. Arkansas fell behind 21-0 – the Hogs have fallen behind 17-0, 28-0, and 21-0 in the first halves of three of their last four games. They’ve yet to put together a complete game this season and haven’t looked like a bowl team for the majority of the season.
There are a lot of questions right now. We’ll discuss the offense, but first, let’s get to the main one.
What’s the deal with the defense?
Arkansas was not really close defensively against Mississippi State. The Bulldogs had 568 yards and could have had 100 more if they had needed it. It’s one thing to get torched by the Air Raid, but the Hogs have been lit up by every opponent on the schedule. Even Texas A&M had nearly 400 yards and mostly controlled the pace and field position.
The problems have been all over. This year’s team is simply worse in coverage and at open-field tackling. That’s probably the main issue. The defensive line is better at rushing the passer, but worse at fighting off blocks and making proper run fits. It adds up to a defense that cannot get off the field.
Here are a few contributing factors:
- Injuries. This is the obvious one. Jalen Catalon was lost for the year in the first half of the first game, and Myles Slusher has missed a lot of time since getting injured in the second half against Cincinnati. Additionally, projected starter Taurean Carter still hasn’t played this year, and backup cornerback Ladarrius Bishop is also out for the year. It’s a lot and it has added up quickly.
- The Sam Carter thing caught the staff flat-footed. Joe Foucha and Greg Brooks, two three-year starters in the secondary, entered the portal in December and suddenly turned up at LSU. A rumor circulated that defensive backs coach Sam Carter was a difficult coach to play for, and those guys wanted out. Everyone inside the program denied it, but Carter did in fact leave the program a few weeks later. The Hogs were clearly caught off-guard by all this and were unable to replace Foucha and Brooks in the portal.
- Odom is transitioning the defense. This is an undeveloped theory, but I initially considered it in last year’s Outback Bowl, when the Hogs abandoned the base Dime defense Odom had been running in favor of a more traditional 4-2-5 with much more man coverage that we were used to. Gimmick defenses may be helpful when you have deficient talent, but ultimately, a more traditional defense gives you additional flexibility. Sure enough, the Hogs opened against Cincinnati in a 4-2-5 look. But the injury to Catalon wrecked a lot of plans, and the Hogs have to try to play more zone and get more speed on the field to make up for it. Transitioning can pay off: in 2000, new DC John Thompson kept running Keith Burns’ 4-2-5 but added some of his preferred 4-3 as part of a transition. The 2000 defense wasn’t great but it set the stage for an excellent 2001 defense that ran the 4-3.
To some extent, I think all three of these are playing a role. Unfortunately, I don’t think that fully explains it. There’s more at play here. And it’s not pretty.
Odom is downgrading Arkansas’ talent
This theory is pretty simple: Odom is a very good defensive coordinator, but a very bad personnel manager. He struggles to evaluate high school talent and/or sign really good players. His initial success at Arkansas came using players already on the roster plus some timely transfers. His own high school recruits are mostly busts, contributing to a steady decay in the talent base.
Under this theory, while Hog fans thought the program was getting stronger and building depth thanks to coordinator consistency and general program stability, the defense is actually getting weaker and increasingly-dependent on the transfer portal as the previous regime’s recruits all graduate.
So is this actually happening? Let’s remove all the inherited players – Grant Morgan, Bumper Pool, Hayden Henry, Jonathan Marshall, Montaric Brown, Jalen Catalon, Joe Foucha, Greg Brooks, Malik Chavis – from the equation and then remove all the transfer adds – John Ridgeway, Tre Williams, Drew Sanders, Dwight McGlothern. When seeing that list of names, you’re probably thinking, wait… who’s left? And that’s precisely the problem. Here are Odom’s non-portal recruits from his first two classes:
2020
- Myles Slusher. Easily the best Odom recruit so far.
- Jashaud Stewart. He’s played a decent number of snaps, with one start in 2021. He’s been injured but hasn’t been very productive to this point.
- Khari Johnson. Had five tackles and 73 defensive snaps in 2021, and has played a handful of snaps as a backup this season.
- Julius Coates. Junior college prospect who started most of 2020 and left the team at the end of the season under somewhat bizarre circumstances.
- Blayne Toll
- Andy Boykin
- Nick Turner
- Kelin Burrle
- Jaqualin McGhee
- Jacorrei Turner
- JT Towers
2021
- Jayden Johnson. He’s struggled, but at least he’s seen the field.
- Chris Paul. He’s contributed as a backup this year and is in line to start next year.
- Cameron Ball. He’s in the rotation on the defensive line.
- Jalen Williams
- Keuan Parker
- Solomon Wright
- Chase Lowery
- Marco Avant
- Jermaine Hamilton-Jordan
NOTE: The original version of this list left off Paul and Ball.
I’m not including the 2022 class since it needs more time. I’ve got only seven of 20 signees ever making any kind of impact. Half (10) of these guys are no longer in the program.
McGhee never made it to campus. Boykin, Nick Turner, Towers, Burrle, and Hamilton-Jordan all transferred following the 2021 season after essentially never seeing the field. Then there’s Blayne Toll. A defensive end rated as a 4-star by some services, he was moved back and forth between defensive end and tight end and eventually left the program. He’s now at Arkansas State, where he plays sparingly. Burrle ended up in Grambling although I don’t know when, and I have no information on Jalen Williams, a junior college player who did not seem to ever make it to campus.
So from that 2020 class, which should be in its third season, the Hogs got one solid starter, two role players, one one-year starter, and one backup (Jacorrei Turner). Only four of 11 signees are still on the team.
From the 2021 team, only three players have contributed. It appears as though Parker, Avant, and Lowery are also still in the program. None saw the field at all in 2021 and have no stats so far in 2022.
This should be pretty obvious, but: you’re not building a program by doing this. You cannot mis-evaluate this many players in such a short period of time and expect to be okay. Against Mississippi State, the Hogs started two former walk-ons at safety (Hudson Clark and Simeon Blair) because the guys they actually offered scholarships to are now playing for FCS or D-II teams.
So what does Arkansas do about it?
Unless the 2022 recruits turn out to be awesome, the Hogs are going to have hit the portal hard again after this season if they want to field anything resembling a Power Five defense next year. That’s the cycle the Razorbacks are trapped in now.
So you could make the case that Odom should be fired if keeping him is just going to make things worse.
Now there is a counter-claim: the 2020 and 2021 classes were signed with heavy COVID restrictions, so Odom didn’t get as many opportunities to evaluate players in those classes. Maybe the 2022 and beyond classes will be evaluated better and make more impact.
Here’s a second counter-claim: Arkansas has had three defensive line coaches in three years, two linebackers coaches, and two defensive backs coaches. High turnover among assistants is hurting development. Maybe Odom and Sam Pittman are happy with their defensive staff now, and keeping it in place for a couple seasons will help improve stability and player development.
One final counter-claim: maybe instead of firing Odom, the Hogs need to fire some of their personnel staff, like those assisting in player development and recruiting. If Odom’s weakness is evaluation, then maybe offering him additional help would pay off.
I’m not sure. This is a tough situation. But the defense has been unacceptable this year, so something has to change.
Grading the Hogs
We assign grades based on how the team’s performance – adjusted for quality of opponent – compares to all other teams in all other games this season. The grades are 0-100 and can be thought of as percentile performances, so a grade of 65, for example, means your overall performance was better than 65% of all other performances this season.
Here are the team grades for Arkansas against Mississippi State:
- Offense: 48
- Defense: 15
- Overall: 22
This graph of performance by game tells the story of this season:
The Hogs have clearly gotten worse as the season has progressed. The offense has been better than the defense all season. Ugh.
Advanced Stats
Confused by any of the advanced stats you see here? Be sure to check out the glossary.
Mississippi State had 11 full drives, and nine of them got inside the Arkansas 40. That’s just plain embarrassing. The Bulldogs gained 70% of available yards and posted a 53% success rate. The Hogs were able to make them work for it by not allowing too many explosive plays, but the Bulldogs looked like they doing a pass skeleton drill.
The Hogs’ offense had a lot of bad news – terrible starting field position, two turnovers, more red zone issues – but the Hogs gained a decent 51% of available yards and posted their best explosiveness figure of the season. Six of 11 drives got inside the State 40, which is not bad.
79% Leverage, 1% Havoc, 56% Passing Downs Success. Good grief. The Hogs had one havoc play all game – a run held for no gain – with zero pass deflections, turnovers, or sacks. If there’s any good news to be had, it’s that State wasn’t very good on third down… but the Bulldogs had four fourth-down conversions to make up for it.
The Hogs’ offense managed to remain on-schedule while creating big plays on early downs, which is a good formula for success. The Razorbacks were a couple of turnovers, a couple of 4th-and-1s, and a third down or two from this being a really good offensive game. And that’s with a backup quarterback.
State was more physical in the trenches, hence the Hogs going 2 for 5 on short yardage rushes. Still, the offense managed to be efficient on the ground and explosive through the air, which is a good combo.
The staff apparently saw something from Cade Fortin to warrant starting him, but it’s hard to know what it was. As we discussed in the matchup analysis, Fortin does have some physical tools and throws a pretty ball, but he’s had issues reading defenses and making decisions.
Malik Hornsby seemed to not being overthinking, instead using his superior physical skills. That led to two interceptions, but the pros outweighed the cons for Hornsby in this game.
Up Next
The Hogs head to Provo to take on BYU in what is probably the most must-win game of the Pittman era. Our model actually says Arkansas wins 35-32 on a neutral field, but this won’t be a neutral field.
Thanks for reading! Be sure to follow us on Twitter.
The latest from Fayette Villains, straight to your inbox
Enter your email to subscribe and receive new post alerts and other updates. You can unsubscribe at any time.